Position Trader, Entrepreneur, Family Man, Fullfilled. Omnia mea mecum porto.
New York, NY
Joined October 2009
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This fall in NY has been elite. Perfect sunny 60-70 days and great color. Added to an amazing summer of World Cup and Knicks, the energy has been insane.
Gold update. A green weekly candle likely just a normal counter-trend bounce within a weekly cycle decline.
Stick to clean trends until the market 'really' tells you otherwise.
What's most interesting here is that over the 16 years, in any given year Bitcoin is either the best performing asset (by far) or it's the worst performing, no in between. And it's on track for consecutive worst years, for the first time.
So either this 16 yr trend has broken or you most certainly want to have decent exposure in a diversified portfolio from here.
Bitcoin (-13%) and Gold (-6%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. This is something we haven't seen before in any calendar year.
bilello.blog/newsletter
$ZEC similar pattern to late last year. Riding the 10wma after a surge. A retest of the breakout at $750 would be an excellent spot, if presented.
Bob Loukas 🗽 retweeted
The best analogy for building wealth is rock climbing. Once you reach a new ledge, you secure it. That becomes your new foundation, and protecting it becomes part of an evolving strategy.
Each new level of wealth should trigger a reset in your mindset and a broadening of strategy. You now have more to protect and also more to work with, and the risks you take should reflect that.
That doesn’t mean you can’t be ambitious. Take big bets when the opportunity deserves it. But big bets can’t be born from what everyone else is doing and every theme has a due date. So structure those bets so that if the next climb fails, you fall back to the ledge you’ve already secured.
The entire climb can never be on the line.
I’m sure today many many people fell back many ledges, and many died falling to the ground.
The best analogy for building wealth is rock climbing. Once you reach a new ledge, you secure it. That becomes your new foundation, and protecting it becomes part of an evolving strategy.
Each new level of wealth should trigger a reset in your mindset and a broadening of strategy. You now have more to protect and also more to work with, and the risks you take should reflect that.
That doesn’t mean you can’t be ambitious. Take big bets when the opportunity deserves it. But big bets can’t be born from what everyone else is doing and every theme has a due date. So structure those bets so that if the next climb fails, you fall back to the ledge you’ve already secured.
The entire climb can never be on the line.
I’m sure today many many people fell back many ledges, and many died falling to the ground.
Lot of questions on Bitcoin's 4yr Cycle. I'm of the view the cycle low is well in.
But the weekly Cycle is in decline. Any drop over the next few months is part of that process and back-filling.
That's true. The setup was there for a breakout and continuation, but it has not happened. We don't predict markets we anticipate and position according to triggers. This had no trigger.
In the same tweet we also outline the possibility of a market rolling over if it fails to get going and break out of the consolidation. That could be happening now, but that hasn't triggered too, it's something to watch for.
But guy wants you to just stick to one aspect of a view expressed a month ago despite what might transpire in that month. If you're not going to change your view often you're going to get smoked, if you're being active. Otherwise, use index funds and enjoy life.
Opinions freely shared are NOT positions, they're the process of outlining significant or likely possibilities.
Red Day update for members of The Financial Tap.
thefinancialtap.com/2026/11/…
Nasty action and probably painful for those getting excited yesterday.
With months of sideways equities action not at all interested in seeing these drops as dips to buy.
Think SpaceX is a long term hold, but also don't see how you can be that bullish on it here at $2T valuation. Feels fully baked for the foreseeable future.
Growing at only 35% or so, Elon assets potentially into headwinds, maybe more in 2028. 20% or so from government contracts. Just feels like you're going to at some point get a significantly sweeter long term entry.
$SPCX
A good move my Bitcoin today post election, but it will need a big push to get away from what appears to be an intermediate (weekly Cycle) decline that's taken hold.
This looking like a Tsunami.
Even South Carolina in play and hanging chads in Florida. The polls (so far) were way off, the other way.
Haven't been adding net new capital to crypto (just recycled gains) the last year or two. Exception being $XMR.
What I like about it is the coin has history, one of few projects with true Cypherpunk ethos, a vibrant community, relatively detached from 'crypto' and still used in transactions. Feels a lot like the old days.
And to add, the quarterly chart is 🤌
