boilermade

Purdue / Gonzaga (Vegas) It is a new era in West Lafayette. Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer combined for nearly 300 starts over the last four seasons. Technically, 298, but still. There is no Zach Edey. There is no TKR. The stock of Purdue is as low as it has been in at least five years. Does that provide an optimal time to buy-low on one of the better coaches in college basketball is the ultimate question over both the short and long-term for the Boilermakers Gonzaga wants to play with pace, hammer the rim, and run continuity ball screen offense in the halfcourt. The last few years, Purdue lacked size and verticality underneath defensively without Edey, so we saw them play predominantly in the halfcourt and really pack it in defensively. Can they run that scheme again? Probably. Will they? I think it is possible that they fall back into a more traditional drop coverage that lets Daniel Jacobsen, a similarly sized Center like Edey, roam the paint while limiting fouls. The backcourt will be small so the 3P defensive contest after you plug driving lanes does not really move the needle—I think you have to keep guys out of rotation and play a 2-man game hoping Jacobsen’s instincts outpace his coordination and suspect mobility. On the other side, Purdue will have its fair share of outs offensively. Nobody is calling them the most athletic team, but I’ll be damned if this group does not absolutely burn it down from the perimeter in a couple underdog spots throughout the year. Given the lack of on-ball juice with this Purdue backcourt, I tend to think that their best option is playing a 3P contest against most teams. They need CJ Cox off the ball—do they have someone to rely on that can set him and others up? That offense only has so much upside if you put one of the better off-ball shooters in the country as your lead initiator due to lack of on-ball personnel. I would also not over index the shellacking they took at the hands of UConn during their scrimmage. The Huskies are as finely tuned of an operation as exists in the sport, and I could not imagine a worse October matchup then chasing their guys through 835 screens every possession as you are trying to gel a new lineup together. Painter is actually one of the coaches who truly tries different stuff in these scrimmage environments, so their ultimate result is much less important than what we saw from their players on an individual skill development basis If you are laying points against a Matt Painter team who will take the air out of the ball and force you to execute in the halfcourt, that tends to be a place I do not want to find myself. That being said, Purdue is also 7-7 ATS in the last two years as an underdog without Zach Edey, and this has the potential to be a different type of underdog scenario without their primary trio back. There is no reason for me to speak any way other than highly of the Purdue program as a whole, but I also worry about not just the matchup at the PF spot, but what happens if Jacobsen runs into any sort of foul trouble against a much bigger frontcourt. I think the Zags pose one of the best 3-man big units in the country between Braden Huff, Massamba Diop, and international transfer Izan Almansa. Boumtje Boumtje and Kusturica rightfully receive their praise as they race for the potential #1 overall pick in 2028, but the most decorated youngin at the international level in college basketball may actually be Almansa. As a high feel and versatile big man, he can play alongside either of the other two and could very well be one of the better Centers off the bench in the entire country. Zag has much more/better frontcourt insurance off the bench to be able to deal with potential foul issues. Purdue will also put much less pressure on the rim offensively, which means Jacobsen has a higher likelihood to find foul trouble. That’s really where Zag’s main advantage exists. The weakest part of the Purdue lineup is the size/physicality of that PF spot, and Braden Huff is basically the most efficient post scorer in the entire country. Do they leave Jacobsen underneath to limit Huff, and trust a 6’6 Pierce/Benter to travel with Diop/Almansa? Given the size/physicality and on-ball advantages that Gonzaga possesses, I agree that this line should definitely be shaded their way compared to the KenPom projection. I got a surprisingly decent chunk down on them at -3.5 on FanDuel but I think most of the meat from that bone is gone with where it sits around 6 now. Overall, it’s still Matt Painter, so I am fully ready to lose a 3P% delta spot should it come to that. In my opinion, this game comes down mostly to how you feel about the readiness of this Purdue group who are all taking massive step ups in role/minutes. You could be completely right about him coaching this team above its talent level, they could finish in the Top 25, and yet they still take a bit of time to click and get going.