Ex-Goldman & Western Asset. Equity Research Dropout. Founder & CIO of largest global L/S FX & VIX repo HF. Not financial advice. DM open.

New York
Joined August 2018
Long $VFC. The market is extrapolating backward-looking wholesale weakness. I think improving DTC sell-through at Vans will drive wholesale replenishment sooner than expected. 12-month PT: $19 (32% upside), 6:1 risk/reward. Full thesis below.
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bubbleboy retweeted
WHEN VOL HITS ... THIS IS MY GO TO PROCESS: - WHATS MOVING TODAY: you should be able to tell what is going on in the world in 30 seconds - MACRO PULSE : whats the implied regime - PAIRS: whats blowing apart - HEDGE FUND SHORTS : are people protecting books or taking them off what do you notice on Whats Moving Today v Hedge Fund Shorts? *now all the big funds are mad I am sharing this data on shorts...you should see how BIGGLY mad some emails are....they pay a lot of money and other retail platforms are oblivious to it... I DONT CARE .. I personally always own a basket of these and flex the size .. up to you how you want to do it (if anything)
GNARLY open 10/22 AI getting flushed & money moving into the barbell of DEFENSIVES + CYBER (ty PHP)
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bubbleboy retweeted
Not a deep observation here, but long end bid like this suggests asset allocation out of risk
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bubbleboy retweeted
🚨 LIQN MCP + AGENTIC FACTOR TRADING 🚨 We built LIQN to level the financial playing field. Today, our open source MCP is live bringing institutional grade factors directly to your AI agents. demo below. Here is what you can do today: • DATA: Pull near real time platform & factor data directly into @Grok or your local AI environment to analyze • PORTFOLIOS: Combine custom factors into a single portfolio and weight dynamically (e.g., Inverse Volatility) • ROBINHOOD: Agentically execute LIQN factors via our MCP on @RobinhoodApp • IBKR: Route live order execution directly to @IBKR • GROK BOT: Set up automated EOD summaries and quantitative risk model readouts @bot You are bounded only by your creativity. Try example MCP prompts like: ⚒️ "Bring me back a list of LIQN MCP tools, a brief description of each, and how I can use them" 1️⃣ "Build me a basket of the top 10 names in MOST SHORTED, MAG7, and HyperGrowth SaaS. Weight it inverse volatility." 2️⃣ "Build me a basket of Energy Majors, MAG7, and Uranium Miners. Equal weight it." 3️⃣ "Build me a basket of AI Security, top 10 names in MOST SHORTED (Large Caps), and top 5 names in SHORTS PILING IN (Large Caps). Weight it inverse volatility." We’re expanding the MCP all fall. Drop your feature requests and workflow ideas.. we will be releasing benchmarks for leading labs as we test them getting started here: liqn.ai/connect/directions
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This Meta Glasses commercial at the US Open was absolutely brilliant. At the end of the day, your phone might just stay in your pocket. $META is coming for your lunch, $AAPL. Watch out.
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The S&P 500 has transitioned from its seasonally weak period into the window that has historically delivered the strongest returns. But a comprehensive analysis of momentum, rates, Fed policy, breadth, sentiment, inflation, and economic surveys suggests the backdrop entering this favorable period is anything but normal. In fact, the current combination ranks among the worst setups in history.
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bubbleboy retweeted
My analogy would be that this is an seatbelt and airbag for AI that protects us from bad driving, whether our own or others. But their analogy from their technical blog is better: “The internet in the 90s…was new and full of possibilities. You could build a website over a weekend and share it with the world, or chat with someone half way around the world in online chat rooms without long-distance telephone fees. It brought endless opportunity, but also a lot of risk. A website could run code on your machine, steal your sensitive information, or infect your computer with a virus. People loved it anyway. To introduce a layer of trust, the community built things like encrypted connections and a lock icon to know when a connection was safe. The step function change in safety came from a radical security idea at the time: isolate each page in its own sandbox (a tab in a browser) so that a rogue page couldn’t infect the rest of your computer. Amazon, Google, Netflix, and Meta were all built on this trust layer. Security and safety for the internet enabled online commerce, connection, gaming, and so much more that wouldn’t have been possible before. Security and safety didn’t slow the pace of innovation—they allowed it to accelerate.” Kinda love it that they left the emdash in there.
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bubbleboy retweeted
classic STAGFLATION-ary vibes consumer action is SO BAD... market really starting to discount immense consumer pain ahead (or is already here)
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This is what the agentic AI capabilities unlock did to semiconductor earnings estimates in 2026. Is that the last capability breakthrough that will pull forward adoption and surprise analysts this much?
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$CAL earnings this morning continue to support what we've been seeing in athletic footwear. $CAL called out "breakout momentum" in fashion footwear, gained share in Women's Fashion Footwear, and said fashion is meaningfully outperforming lifestyle athletic at Famous Footwear. The success we've seen at Journeys points in the same direction. Athletic is running into closet saturation. Women already own too many pairs of analogous athletic shoes, particularly "dad shoe" lifestyle sneakers. At some point, another slightly different pair becomes an easy purchase to skip. That creates a bad setup for athletic. You have a saturated closet, a bunch of brands competing for the same incremental purchase, and rising promotions as everyone tries to clear through increasingly undifferentiated product. Meanwhile, fashion footwear gives the consumer a reason to buy something new. Loafers, ballet flats, lifestyle boots and other fashion silhouettes are competing for the incremental footwear dollar, and right now they're winning it. The consumer is still buying shoes. They just appear more interested in diversifying the closet than adding another athletic sneaker. $ONON $DECK $NKE $SHOO $ADDYY $VFC
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My forthcoming book, The Investing Mind, is an extended version of this report. Check it out and don't forget to roll a snowball while you're visiting the site! theinvestingmind.com/
10 Attributes of great investors, by @mjmauboussin
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I really want to like $NKE. But WTF is Elliott Hill doing? He got rid of Chief Commercial Officer role eight months ago but brings it back with a $WMT person? Now he hires Foot Locker talent to be COO of Converse? Has he listened to anything Ed Stack at $DKS said about prior Foot Locker management?
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bubbleboy retweeted
This take was disappointing. It’s “hard” so don’t want to do it I am a firm believer in “whom much is given much is expected”. I believe we all have to stand before the Lord one day and answer for our decisions in life So let me give you another perspective. I think the HIGHEST FORM OF FULFILLMENT is serving people with the gifts God gave you. Don’t over complicate it… taxes strategy vehicle… serve people with the gifts you have STEWARD your talents. STEWARD your family. STEWARD your life. STEWARD your impact sphere. You think your blessings are for you brother? Nah.. STEWARD to find fulfillment
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong says donating to charity is net negative "The common view is that philanthropy is this noble cause, and Bill Gates is like 'I'm going to go rehabilitate my image and do philanthropy.'" "A lot of charities and philanthropies are actually net negative for the world and they get captured. It's remarkably hard to find a foundation that has not gotten captured by ideology.” “By trying to do something good, like criminal justice reform, it turns out they just increased crime. I have a donor advised fund and I put money toward things helping civilization advance, but I don't think at this moment I would ever create a foundation." "If you look at the Ford Foundation, I think Henry Ford would be turning over in his grave if he knew what they were up to.” “I have a DAF, a donor advised fund, and I just try to put money toward things that I think are helping civilization advance. But I don't think at this moment I would ever create a foundation."
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bubbleboy retweeted
FLOWS into SOFTWARE ... from covering this am... to seems like real buying now is very 2017 like ... WOW
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"Midwest vs. coastal bias"... sounds like something @alixpasquet would have exploited
When people ask me the (unknowable) question of how AI tools will impact alpha curves in long/short investing, I actually think we have an interesting sandbox to evaluate that question in the evolution of Consumer L/S investing. I started my career as a hedge fund analyst in an 8 person consumer team, and pure consumer investing was a flagship team for many Tiger Cubs in the 1995-2015 era. The process was pure scuttlebutt research and I spent a lot of my day calling Wendy’s franchises, Cabela’s gun counters, running quarterly surveys and slicing and dicing grocery scanner data and constantly updating a master list of global SSS data. Technology has dramatically changed Consumer L/S investing and, in particular, the emergence of credit card panels that can give almost a real-time signal of company fundamentals made so much of that scuttlebutt research obsolete. And you had a window of time, maybe 5-7 years, where investors with the “old” approach were able to adapt these new methods and absolutely crush it. Over the last 5-10 years, however, fundamental alpha in the Consumer L/S space has become much more difficult to harvest. Consumer is no longer a flagship team at most single managers, and many Consumer PMs have drifted into TMT. Some of this is the macro/industry evolution of where EV has been created, for sure (see: AMZN), but more of my friends simply won’t traffic in names where alt data is the deterministic resource. It’s an arms race, and quants on balance are winning that arm’s race. This has created a tougher playing field, but has also created all sorts of monetizable distortions and the domain knowledge of different nuances around these panels (which providers are included, Midwest vs. coastal bias, which providers are losing a key CC panel, etc) has adapted to still offer interesting “third order” alpha pools for investors who have adapted. But it certainly is not the same “data good, stock is a long” set-up that prevailed in 2008. What has been bad news for investors has been great news for the data ecosystem, as the arms race to stay current has included $5-15+ data and data engineering budgets. In the broad consumer investing ecosystem, data has taken share of wallet from labor, and quants have taken share from fundamental. Get ready for this prior to asset itself in other sectors, in my view. (My hunch is the “next Consumer” is Biotech investing, but we will see.)
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Replying to @leveredtech
I think it's hard to give blanket advice, but I can give you my experience. My internal disposition towards the job shifted over time. First 5 years, "wow this is amazing, this doesn't feel like work, can't believe they pay me to do this". Over time, that shifted, and the newness of the job was replaced with this trapped feeling of redundancy. Being a great PM in a coverage model means dedicating your life to knowing 300 companies well. And I was less of a savant and more of a "I will outwork you" sort of investor. I, slowly, started to get the "Sunday Scaries". But the arrival of kids really accelerated that contemplation. I lived at 2 River Terrace and there was a Le Pan Quotidien and my morning routine 2-3 days a week was to take the two oldest down for a croissant and coffee before work, quickly. It was only a 10-15 minute window, but the best part of my day. Ending that window felt harder and harder as I connected more with their personalities. "Dada don't go to work let's say and feed the ducks". I mean, heart wrenching. "Sorry kid my biggest short is blowing up..." Layered on all of this was a sort of existential crisis that sparked a spiritual opening. I was an atheistic capitalist in 2015 and I'm now one of the more woo woo people I know. I always was so cynical of the milquetoast "everything happens for a reason" mindset. I now believe it to be true. Right around those moments, my rising career success (one of the most profitable analysts at my firm in the first 7 years), hit a huge speedbump (chin first into late 2015 Hillary/Turing/Valeant regime change in healthcare), and for the first time in my professional career I was really objectively looking at a huge failure moment. That accelerated everything. And, looking back, was a huge blessing in my path. My wife yearned to be in Arizona (she grew up here), so we started the conversation. But sitting in a high potential seat (i had successful peers have $10-$30m+ years, individually) with deferred comp handcuffs makes it hard to leap. My version of "everything happens for a reason" was inspired by my (many) readings of Paulo Coelho's the Alchemist, "when you want something, all the universe conspires in helping you achieve it". And Steve Job's dictum that what feels messy in your life path will all look coherent, poetic & perfect in retrospect (this is sublimely true for me). My belief is we life in a supportive universe and the simulation will tilt itself to support your calling (knowing how to press the right buttons helps, mostly around the David Hawkins concept of raising your own level of awareness with a "water finds it's level" mindset. I became a deeply rigorous student of David Hawkins work). Our job is to get quiet, pay attention to the signals & omens, have the courage to follow the path when it appears, and, most importantly, let go of the white knuckling of the "how" and put trust in the universe. "Universe, show me how good it can get" was the mantra I repeated, as well as the affirmation from Napoleon Hill, "I believe that I am always divinely guided. I believe I will always take the right turn in the road. I believe that God will make a way where there is no way". It's super cheesy, but this mantra still sits on the wall in my office and has been a critical tool in putting me in the right path. Fast forward to 2017, everything came together. My division at a multi-manager was shut down (leaving me a free agent, no non-compete, deferred vested, a hugely unusual situation for a hedge fund PM). A super exciting consulting path emerged that I could lead remotely. And it just sort of all worked out. I'm a practical guy, as you are likely as well. So woo woo faith in the universe is not enough and could lead to ruin if the right preparatory steps are not undertaken. This almost always, in my experience, includes an alignment with your partner to downshift lifestyle driven burn for a period of time. But my "woo woo" analysis of things is that the deep yearning inside of me that built and built those LPQ mornings were the trigger that gave the universe creative freedom to design the path that has led me here. It's also a fun way to live going forward, I highly recommend it. Demanding the universe to "show me how good it can get" hasn't failed me yet.
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bubbleboy retweeted
Checking out all the drawdowns this AM ... my Friday morning process - Semis v Software (oogly boogly) - AI POWER / power adjacent .. quietly in a nasty one - META ecosystem (obv) *not pretty this am WHAT HAPPENS to SEMIS (#8) historically? I like this chart
🚨REBOUND App🚨 this is one of my favorite apps I have used for many years... completely rethought & revamped for you... this specific app should be a pillar of your morning & weekend process REBOUND answers 2 critical questions for you: 1) where is this factor DRAWDOWN relative to history? 2) what do REBOUNDS look like and what historically has the highest & lowest correlations on that rebound? *most people do this analysis wrong... the key is no overlapping dates - Go to "Apps" in the left rail - REBOUND App - Rebound Radar: Current Top 10/20 .... this ranks drawdowns by most violent first, whoever is deepest against their own history is at the top .. expand for 20 - add a factor up top like "TMT MOMENTUM" and it stays at the top (starred) - *Click on a factor to go to its Detail page - stats ... click the "i" for more information on that factor - HOW DEEP HOW LONG ... hover for date and data - 10 DEEPEST FALLS ... data rich graphic ranked by violence - RECOVERY PATHS ... where are we on the recovery relative to history? - AFTER THE FALL ... what happened next historically - What other factors are correlated on way down and up ... also uncorrelated down and up
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bubbleboy retweeted
Over the past week, we are seeing some early cracks in our GPU availability data...not going to overreact but have to call balls and strikes...On net, bad combo w/ the Anthropic ARR miss.
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I will walk through my three step process for building an agent that is: Step 1) gather the raw knowledge Step 2) build the agent spec Step 3) build the agent Here is a snippet of the raw for "Munger's Mental Models".
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NFIB saw ~9% response rate lol. Data issues u don't say. Charts from MS, @ISABELNET_SA, @SoberLook
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