Oil analyst formerly known as Lord Crudehead: funder of hedges; professional drinker of your milkshake. #OOTT
State of permanent balance
Joined September 2012
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Hold on a second...need to think this through...so if Iran in Mecca Alliance then what happens when/if US and/or Israel attacks Iran....?
#OOTT
BREAKING: According to Israeli intelligence sources, Pakistan has mediated on behalf of Saudi Arabia to bring Iran's Islamic regime into the Mecca Alliance, under which both countries will not only put an end to hostilities, but also protect each other from external threats.
The Iranian Islamic regime's membership in the Mecca Alliance could accelerate Saudi Arabia's domestic ballistic missile programs. Technology transfers provided by Iran's regime could enable Saudi Arabia to design, develop, and produce nuclear warheads for its ballistic missiles, posing an extensive threat to the State of Israel.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Officials from the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement countries (Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan) are meeting Iranian officials in Tehran to discuss de-escalation and regional security. This is not an effort to bring Iran into the alliance.
reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/2…
Crudehead🛢 retweeted
"As many of you may have already learned, while teaching four weeks ago, I was physically attacked by a number of masked individuals in a brutal manner. I will not lie to you. I was extremely upset and shaken after the event, though not only for reasons you might logically expect. This was not only because..."
damien-ernst.be/2026/10/22/i…
Crudehead🛢 retweeted
Fair bit of red ink out there today (and in small-caps its been a bloodbath lately no matter where you are). Always a good reminder that, as ever, any given stock can trade at any given price at all, at any time. You have to know what you own, and not be levered.
Crudehead🛢 retweeted
What an absolute mess, @NateSibley.
When Trump instructed @SecScottBessent to greenlight Russian diesel imports without the authority to do so, he put @USTreasury and @CBP in an impossible legal bind.
An @OFAC license cannot override a federal statute, because Congress took that power away from Treasury in this case. PL 117-109 enacted a blanket statutory ban on all Russian HTS Chapter 27 energy imports (including diesel) with zero administrative waiver authority.
And you're spot on about CAATSA. Even if Treasury claims it can (somehow) license around it, any move significantly altering Russia policy requires a mandatory 30-day notice to Congress and a statutory freeze before taking effect.
The end result? If a Russian tanker soon arrives at a U.S. port, CBP is legally barred from clearing the cargo.
As a few experts have helpfully pointed out, this law incorporates implementation requirements via an executive order that itself permits licenses. Fair enough. But I find it unusually ambiguous—and likely not what Congress intended.
In any case it doesn’t relieve Treasury of the 30 day notice required by CAATSA, as this license clearly “significantly alters” U.S.-Russia policy.
So much energy dominance..
#OOTT
The U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License No. 135, which temporarily authorizes transactions related to the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian Federation-origin diesel fuel until April 7, 2027, at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.
#oott
google.com/url?sa=i&source=w…
On the margin (these are small kbd commitments after all and big if) but more Russian disty into US could re- open us export arbs to Europe….
#OOTT
BREAKING: US President Trump says he has agreed with Vladimir Putin that Russia would export “to the American and Global Marketplace” diesel.
The quantities are, however quite small to make a meaningful impact. Trump says Russia will export immediately ~300,000 tonnes (~2.2 million barrels or ~100,000 b/d for the rest of the month); plus ~500,000 tonnes in November (~3.7 million barrels, ~125,000 b/d for the month). The flows would increase later, Trump said.
Left unsaid: the White House will have to lift once again sanctions on Russian refined products (if not all oil).
Every great magic trick consists of three parts or acts. The first part is called "The Pledge"....
#OOTT
China’s independent refiners are turning to Iraqi crude to replace dwindling Iranian supplies as a US blockade chokes Tehran’s exports, raising questions about whether Iran is using an old workaround to reach its buyers: disguising its own oil as Iraqi.
iranintl.com/en/202610072519
Well, you've heard of tanker wars back in the day.
But seems 'satellite tanker tracking' wars kicking off...
#OOTT
Hear, hear
#OOTT
I don’t normally do this, but I think this is completely unfair.
@phileeppos was the first person I know that started the Gulf of Oman implies transit flow analysis.
I have been sharing data with him since he started publishing the data publicly and he has been excellent in both his analysis of the situation and insight.
Because of his original idea, I conveyed his methodology to Kpler and urged them to adopt this. I’m certain they got the same suggestions elsewhere.
Either way, I think the oil community is benefiting tremendously from his contribution. Thank you from our team.
Riddle me this...
Is a release a release when reserves are released but barrels are bought back?
#OOTT
EU's emergency diesel stocks are mainly in Germany and France
Germany, France together account for roughly 35% of the EU's emergency diesel reserves
#oott reuters.com/business/energy/…
Crudehead🛢 retweeted
Now sell side research is completely losing its mind over the transit uptick.
Obviously i've been watching the Kpler and Vortexa prints, but take someone like @LVision_Trading , whom I've been following lately—a single independent tracker mapped out the entire volume rebound flawlessly weeks ago.
Kind of wild how it only magically became the topic du jour this week isn't it? What i actually wanted to see was whether this run rate is structurally sustainable or already putting in a local top, but crickets on that front.
Between hard bottlenecks on shuttling capacity, Tehran’s clear incentive to knock Trump down a peg while he’s taking victory laps over transit numbers, and this feeling like a textbook sentiment meme top—the urge to aggressively fade this consensus is getting overwhelming. Just saying.
#oott #iran
Being ‘mansplained’ about the impact of the US/Iran War on energy markets is something….
…but being ‘macro dude mansplained’ on oil markets was 15 mins of my life I will never get back.
#OOTT
If the US doesn’t want a silly US diesel balance sheet this winter it must do something silly: ban us diesel exports
#OOTT
White House has found some ‘magic refinery capacity beans’
#OOTT
White House weighs how to use Defense Production Act to expand US oil refining capacity, sources say #oott reuters.com/business/energy/…
