Charlie Martin

the next wave of founders will all be marketers it's easier for a creative to learn to build than for an engineer to learn how to generate attention building keeps getting easier and marketing keeps getting harder

Heard that Walleye, $17B AUM, and Engineers Gate, $23B AUM, are both shutting down their equity pods "Factors all going the wrong way today = liquidations are happening"

Not a prediction but worth a swing at some lotto puts

I will confidently say that this is a post-event volatility crush and the real reaction to the actual election results, if any, will not be known for a few days teapawt.net/dampedspring/status/21…

Anyone who is confidently explaining the last 12 hours of market moves in any asset or currency should not be trusted. It reminds me of 2016. So funny. Also fwiw this is NOT an analog to 1994

Binance lost $6.3B Thursday night and traders priced the North Korean hack in 24 hours. But today is a seismic Election Day that crypto hasn’t priced at all. Tonight or early tomm the Dems take the House (pending meteor strike). And against all odds from even two months ago, the Senate is anywhere from a coin flip to 80% Dem depending on whose model you trust (thanks FLIPR @NateSilver538 ). The friendliest Congress crypto has ever had starts to evaporate Wednesday morning. But it’s crickets from the market on this. Everyone still trading in crypto is shell chocked and desensitized but it actually matters twhat is coming from the results tonight. Crypto spent ~$170M on this election, $154M of it through Fairshake and its affiliates, with the biggest checks aimed at keeping Republicans in power. If you’re long COIN, USDC, HYPE, or anything that runs on the last 18 months of political and regulatory goodwill, you’ve hedged a record hack but not the coming blue wave/tsunami/name your ocean phenomena. CLARITY died in the Senate in September, with Democratic objections focused in part on the president’s family crypto holdings. If it doesn’t move in the lame duck, it starts over in a Congress with no political pressure to pass it. GENIUS is law. The OCC finalized its rule last month; 13 more remain pending from Treasury, the FDIC, the Fed the NCUA and others. Do you think the banks will wait around or leverage the new political climate to undermine this innovative law? The new Congress can’t unwrite the statute but they can make life hard for the people implementing it. Oversight is the part I’d be watching most closely. Our old friend Maxine Waters likely gets back the House Financial Services gavel (unless Casten or Foster takes it from her). Warren (sigh) gets Banking if the Senate flips, and a returning Sherrod Brown (no thanks to Fairshake's extensive opposition) may be sitting next to her. They’ve already told everybody, in writing, what they want to investigate: • Trump Family Crypto Deal. The $2B MGX investment in Binance using World Liberty’s USD1, the separate UAE-backed purchase of 49% of World Liberty, and what the SEC’s fraud case against Binance could have proven. Waters tied the hack to the CZ pardon under 24 hours from the news. • The SEC dismissal list. Waters, Casten and Sherman wrote Atkins in January naming cases against Binance, Coinbase and Kraken, plus Justin Sun, and told the SEC to preserve its records. A ranking member asks and gets ignored but a committee chair has subpoena power. • Grift stuff. The memecoin dinners, the insider trading, the randomtoken pumping. • The Regulatory approach. All the no-action letters, proposed rules, and exemptive relief of the last 18 months, and the SEC and CFTC retreat from crypto enforcement. • Perps and Predicitons: The CFTC’s aggressive interpretation of federal preemption and control over nationwide prediction markets has a political bullseye on it. Along with perps. Senate Ag has its own oversight jurisdiction and whoever takes the gavel will come knocking. Coinbase said prediction markets are a $200M+ annualized business. Does that number survive a antagonistic House and Senate committees? So where’s the hedge?? Two theories. The market thinks the rules that matter are already written, or being written by regulators who won’t stop because Congress changes hands. A Democratic House can investigate and hold some entertaining hearings. It can’t undo the agenda. Or the incoming Democrats, including some Fairshake-funded ones, decide crypto is a jobs issue rather than a Trump issue and go find something else to be mad about (AI, affordability, Iran war, etc). My view: the rules are going to get written either way and Atkins and Selig are true experts focused on making real progress BUT traders are underpricing or ignoring the upcoming onslaught from an empowered Blue majority. The trick is to make the new rules stick enough to survive the coming onslaught. Tell me why I’m wrong.

FTX would have financially recovered too. Lots of lessons in this