Creator of the CEBE framework for BTCTC analysis | https://xitter.cf/t.co/kQGryfDPOo | Bitcoiner

Indiana
Joined March 2009
Where CEBE came from, for anyone wondering Nobody commissioned it. No issuer pays for it, no sponsor, no instruments to sell, no ads. I built it in January after losing money to the marketing number in 2025 Every treasury company is now publishing its own net-of-claims per share, on its own definitions. CEBE is the one built outside those companies. The one that can compare these companies None of them hold the pen The formula is on every label. The disclosure is on the About page. The reason is in The Receipt cebetracker.io/insights/the-…
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How how far up the leaderboard, any guesses?
The sats/$SATS perpetual swap has been activated.
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Strive (ASST) at the Oct 23 close. Filed figures as of Oct 20. Price premium 1.94x Senior Claims 37.8% CEBE 18,466 sats per share Break-even BTC price $30,638 cebetracker.io/company/ASST/
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
Metaplanet (MTPLF) at the Oct 23 close. Filed figures as of Sep 30. Price premium 0.82x Senior Claims 21.8% CEBE 2,523 sats per share Break-even BTC price $17,651 cebetracker.io/company/MTPLF…
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strategy (MSTR) at the Oct 23 close. Filed figures as of Oct 18. Price premium 1.15x Senior Claims 21.9% CEBE 157,008 sats per share Break-even BTC price $17,734 cebetracker.io/company/MSTR/
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The fleet at one close. Every company on its latest filing, all valued at the Oct 23 Bitcoin close, $81,102. Top 10 by BTC held, CEBE mNAV and Senior Claims %. cebetracker.io
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Bitcoin treasury company CEBE mNAVs ... 10/23/2026 ... 👇
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
The Smarter Web Company (TSWCF), updated for today's filing of 20 BTC bought. 2,850 BTC held CEBE 661 sats per share Senior Claims 12.3% Price premium 1.26x cebetracker.io/company/TSWCF…
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strive ($ASST) at the Oct 22 close. Filed figures as of Oct 20. cebetracker.io/company/ASST/
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The Smarter Web Company ($TSWCF) bought 20 BTC, filed today (RNS 1358A). Holdings 2,850 BTC. CEBE 660 to 661 sats per share. The purchase added 2 sats and bitcoin’s price move took back 1. Senior Claims 12.32%. cebetracker.io/company/TSWCF
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strategy ($MSTR) at the Oct 22 close. Filed figures as of Oct 18. cebetracker.io/company/MSTR/
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
The fleet at one close, Oct 22. BTC $81,328. CEBE mNAV and Senior Claims %, each company on its latest filing. cebetracker.io
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Replying to @lokalninja @atrupar
I don't read other people's comments before commenting 😄🤷‍♂️👋 I doubt anyone else is talking about his gift of gaff because that is apperantly not a real saying 😅 Its gift of Gab.
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Thank you Bobby for providing this analysis dashboard. For each outstanding preferred series it measures Bitcoin’s annualized return (in the preferred’s own currency, on daily closes) from that series’ launch date versus the filed rate the company pays on it. A series is “ahead” when BTC’s yearly growth since issuance beats its cost; “behind” when it doesn’t. Trailing-year context sits beside the launch-to-date figure so you can see the difference between short windows and longer ones.Most of these series launched in 2025 (when BTC was higher), so the short windows are highly sensitive to the launch price and subsequent moves. Positive Spread means the leverage is currently working for common equity. Negative means preferred holders are ahead of the growth that was supposed to accrue to the residual claim. It is the ongoing scorecard of whether the capital-structure thesis is delivering in real time across the tracked instruments. #CEBE
Every pref issuer is underwriting a BTC CAGR that exceeds the cost of the preferreds. CEBE checks the tape and shows where they stand cebetracker.io/spread
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Every pref issuer is underwriting a BTC CAGR that exceeds the cost of the preferreds. CEBE checks the tape and shows where they stand cebetracker.io/spread
Every preferred issuer is underwriting a Bitcoin return. At minimum, Bitcoin has to beat the rate on the preferred that funded the purchase How have they done? As of Oct 20, Bitcoin is behind the rate on all 7 series measured since launch It moves with price. Today it’s 0 for 7 cebetracker.io/spread/
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Every preferred issuer is underwriting a Bitcoin return. At minimum, Bitcoin has to beat the rate on the preferred that funded the purchase How have they done? As of Oct 20, Bitcoin is behind the rate on all 7 series measured since launch It moves with price. Today it’s 0 for 7 cebetracker.io/spread/
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
Replying to @LizardWizardBTC
Agreed. The test for neutral is simple. Filed inputs only, basic shares, every claim at its liquidation preference, cash nets, and the same formula for every company. If a company can pick the knobs, it isn't a standard That's what CEBE is built on. Anyone can recompute it from the filings cebetracker.io
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Time to check the tape on Strive's IPO of $SATS From the Oct 13 close, before the announcement, to the Oct 20 close at settlement $ASST : −1.9% Bitcoin: −0.7% BTC per share said +21% The share price didn’t. Net the claim
Run Zynx's numbers net of the claim issued to buy the coins, the way the market sees it: +7,500 BTC bought +8,485 BTC of new senior claim ($700M preference at $82,500) Net to common: about -985 BTC, about -790 sats per share BTC per share up 21%. CEBE down 4% Same deal BPS acts like the coins arrived by magic. They didn't. They came with claims ahead of common, and the per share math should include them. Not just the upside story packaged as amplification
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
$MSTR 8-K, as of Oct 18 CEBE: 157,500 sats/share (-996) Transaction: -129, mostly $45.5M of preferred dividends paid from the USD Reserve Bitcoin price: -867 Senior Claims: 21.62% Every leg on the panel.
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Bobby Tierney retweeted
$ASST 8-K, as of Oct 16 CEBE: 19,432 sats/share (-452) Bought 1,223 BTC: +16 No filed flow, cash -$27.1M: -263 Bitcoin price: -205 Senior Claims: 34.52%
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