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Where CEBE came from, for anyone wondering
Nobody commissioned it. No issuer pays for it, no sponsor, no instruments to sell, no ads. I built it in January after losing money to the marketing number in 2025
Every treasury company is now publishing its own net-of-claims per share, on its own definitions. CEBE is the one built outside those companies. The one that can compare these companies
None of them hold the pen
The formula is on every label. The disclosure is on the About page. The reason is in The Receipt
cebetracker.io/insights/the-…
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strive (ASST) at the Oct 23 close. Filed figures as of Oct 20.
Price premium 1.94x
Senior Claims 37.8%
CEBE 18,466 sats per share
Break-even BTC price $30,638
cebetracker.io/company/ASST/
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Metaplanet (MTPLF) at the Oct 23 close. Filed figures as of Sep 30.
Price premium 0.82x
Senior Claims 21.8%
CEBE 2,523 sats per share
Break-even BTC price $17,651
cebetracker.io/company/MTPLF…
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strategy (MSTR) at the Oct 23 close. Filed figures as of Oct 18.
Price premium 1.15x
Senior Claims 21.9%
CEBE 157,008 sats per share
Break-even BTC price $17,734
cebetracker.io/company/MSTR/
Bobby Tierney retweeted
The fleet at one close. Every company on its latest filing, all valued at the Oct 23 Bitcoin close, $81,102.
Top 10 by BTC held, CEBE mNAV and Senior Claims %.
cebetracker.io
Bobby Tierney retweeted
The Smarter Web Company (TSWCF), updated for today's filing of 20 BTC bought.
2,850 BTC held
CEBE 661 sats per share
Senior Claims 12.3%
Price premium 1.26x
cebetracker.io/company/TSWCF…
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strive ($ASST) at the Oct 22 close. Filed figures as of Oct 20. cebetracker.io/company/ASST/
Bobby Tierney retweeted
The Smarter Web Company ($TSWCF) bought 20 BTC, filed today (RNS 1358A). Holdings 2,850 BTC.
CEBE 660 to 661 sats per share. The purchase added 2 sats and bitcoin’s price move took back 1.
Senior Claims 12.32%.
cebetracker.io/company/TSWCF
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Strategy ($MSTR) at the Oct 22 close. Filed figures as of Oct 18. cebetracker.io/company/MSTR/
Bobby Tierney retweeted
The fleet at one close, Oct 22. BTC $81,328. CEBE mNAV and Senior Claims %, each company on its latest filing. cebetracker.io
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Thank you Bobby for providing this analysis dashboard.
For each outstanding preferred series it measures Bitcoin’s annualized return (in the preferred’s own currency, on daily closes) from that series’ launch date versus the filed rate the company pays on it.
A series is “ahead” when BTC’s yearly growth since issuance beats its cost; “behind” when it doesn’t.
Trailing-year context sits beside the launch-to-date figure so you can see the difference between short windows and longer ones.Most of these series launched in 2025 (when BTC was higher), so the short windows are highly sensitive to the launch price and subsequent moves.
Positive Spread means the leverage is currently working for common equity.
Negative means preferred holders are ahead of the growth that was supposed to accrue to the residual claim.
It is the ongoing scorecard of whether the capital-structure thesis is delivering in real time across the tracked instruments.
#CEBE
Every pref issuer is underwriting a BTC CAGR that exceeds the cost of the preferreds. CEBE checks the tape and shows where they stand
cebetracker.io/spread
Every pref issuer is underwriting a BTC CAGR that exceeds the cost of the preferreds. CEBE checks the tape and shows where they stand
cebetracker.io/spread
Every preferred issuer is underwriting a Bitcoin return. At minimum, Bitcoin has to beat the rate on the preferred that funded the purchase
How have they done?
As of Oct 20, Bitcoin is behind the rate on all 7 series measured since launch
It moves with price. Today it’s 0 for 7
cebetracker.io/spread/
Every preferred issuer is underwriting a Bitcoin return. At minimum, Bitcoin has to beat the rate on the preferred that funded the purchase
How have they done?
As of Oct 20, Bitcoin is behind the rate on all 7 series measured since launch
It moves with price. Today it’s 0 for 7
cebetracker.io/spread/
Bobby Tierney retweeted
Replying to @LizardWizardBTC
Agreed. The test for neutral is simple. Filed inputs only, basic shares, every claim at its liquidation preference, cash nets, and the same formula for every company. If a company can pick the knobs, it isn't a standard
That's what CEBE is built on. Anyone can recompute it from the filings
cebetracker.io
Time to check the tape on Strive's IPO of $SATS
From the Oct 13 close, before the announcement, to the Oct 20 close at settlement
$ASST : −1.9%
Bitcoin: −0.7%
BTC per share said +21%
The share price didn’t. Net the claim
Replying to @RichLassiterMD @ZynxBTC
Run Zynx's numbers net of the claim issued to buy the coins, the way the market sees it:
+7,500 BTC bought
+8,485 BTC of new senior claim ($700M preference at $82,500)
Net to common: about -985 BTC, about -790 sats per share
BTC per share up 21%. CEBE down 4%
Same deal
BPS acts like the coins arrived by magic. They didn't. They came with claims ahead of common, and the per share math should include them. Not just the upside story packaged as amplification
Bobby Tierney retweeted
$MSTR 8-K, as of Oct 18
CEBE: 157,500 sats/share (-996)
Transaction: -129, mostly $45.5M of preferred dividends paid from the USD Reserve
Bitcoin price: -867
Senior Claims: 21.62%
Every leg on the panel.
Bobby Tierney retweeted
$ASST 8-K, as of Oct 16
CEBE: 19,432 sats/share (-452)
Bought 1,223 BTC: +16
No filed flow, cash -$27.1M: -263
Bitcoin price: -205
Senior Claims: 34.52%






















