investor partial portfolios: @unitreerobotics /Horizon Robotics /@vivaia_official etc.
Joined January 2021
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如果用Anthropic的估值反推，
Anthropic为1万亿、1.5万亿、2万亿美元时，SpaceX的SI板块对标估值约对应4300亿、6400亿和8500亿美元。
与星链等其它三档业务板块组合后，SpaceX的整体估值大致落在0.77万亿—1.60万亿美元，对应每股约57—118美元。
而当前SpaceX股价为123美元，已经隐含了接近“星链乐观＋Anthropic约2.2万亿”的组合。
还要关注两批解禁：2026年12月的180天期解禁，以及2027年6月Musk锁定期到期。
那么，1万亿美金估值的Anthropic会从SpaceX身上吸多少血呢？
陆川说的很好，他指导团队里的AI剧的制作人说，不能一键直出，因为AI的一键直出一定就是“行活”，不鲜活、欠考究。
的确，但他玩细活废token啊，看来未来竞争有品质的片子，AI剧不一定成本比人低呢....
对于当下阶段的AI应用创业来说，尤其是中国市场，搞数据卖给模型公司，是唯一的收入模式。订阅费支棱不起来，所以，大家都搞数据。
I re-read the articles about data, and it says that the LLM labs cares more about the speed and quantity rather than quality of the data. They would rather get a lot of data with mixed qualities rather than missing any of the good ones. Might this be the reason why the in-house data teams is still not enough? They can't have this quantity and speed without purchasing from outside. (Rather than just the "domain expertise" reason that I originally thought).
Another reason that makes data venders inreplaceable from non-technical perspective is that, companies want to use data vendors as arm’s-length proxies to launder data, such as distilling rival models like OpenAI’s and Anthropic’s or scraping user data from their own apps, shifting legal and reputational risk the companies can’t or won’t take on themselves to those data venders.
