Allocating into inevitabilities - AI, robotics, digital assets & RE.
Joined December 2022
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Cognitive Capital retweeted
Agree entirely. Think they did a good job addressing the three main items.. (i) new tenant at Helios II (seems very positive here, Ferraro notably more bullish than prior calls) (ii) balance sheet strength (underappreciated how they raised $1.6B+ roughly a year ago at top of crypto market) (iii) execution (to your point kinda impossible to rule out all of the regulatory risks but relative to peers I trust they're much more on top of things).
Don't think the "Fourth of July, knock on wood" debacle can be put to bed until a deal is actually signed but their explanation and rationale tracks entirely with everything else going on. It could turn out to be a very good thing they didn't sign something this summer right before financing costs increased in a pretty material way.. Have to imagine they can push for a higher unlevered yield on cost today versus 4-5 months ago (to pass through higher financing costs).
April 2027 for studied load allocations also a nice little positive surprise (I would have guessed summer 2027).. And "mid-2028" for first phase of Helios II also suggests all of the TSP/utility work is progressing well.
Crazy to think one of their peers had to raise an $850MM convert during a -50%+ drawdown because they're 40% over budget on their build costs.. Puts into perspective how strong of a position GLXY is in authorizing another $200MM buyback. If you read through the S&P ratings analysis on Helios I Phase II financing you can see they actively addressed these types of risks that other folks seemed to take gambles (and lose) on.
Also FWIW I think CRWV would almost certainly accept data halls without backup diesel gens (their customers would prob rather have capacity w/ risk of downtime vs. no capacity online at all).
Safe to say management will be hammering the buy button tomorrow.
I’ll be there with them.
$GLXY
Even if you thought these analysts knew what they were doing, there’s plenty of money left on the table.
$GLXY
Happy $GLXY earnings day to those who celebrate!
Tuning in from the beautiful Monte Carlo.
Cognitive Capital retweeted
We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left
Cognitive Capital retweeted
$GLXY
Let me add more context to this thesis, which could still be wrong (!):
During construction of Phase 1 a PUE of 1.4 was assumed and therefore contracted as that with $CRWV (see screenshot 1).
But on the S&P global bond rating for Phase 2 (HEL03 & HEL04) it was identified that the current PUE is 1.27 (see screenshot 2).
If the updated PUE of 1.27 could be applied to the full 800MW interconnect of the Cottonwood switching station, Galaxy could have more MWs of critical load which could be leased as well.
Please retweet this post in order to increase the likelyhood that analysts who cover $GLXY see this. There might be a chance this issue will be addresed on Tuesday's earnings call. Thank you for your support.
$GLXY
Getting extra MW (critical load) based on a PUE drop (efficiency gains) is indeed possible. This might also explain why Galaxy has skipped the HEL02 data hall for now. They skipped it on purpose in order to use all "extra critical load MWs" for this particular data hall
$GLXY earning call tomorrow is probably one of the most important in the history of the company.
I'll be looking for management to disclose more regarding the $CRWV relationship, with a particular focus on any guarantees, credit protections and potential costs and timing of replacing them as a tenant given the market noise.
I know a company with substantial revenues independent of their AI data centre business. $GLXY
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Tacos are on the menu tonight in honour of @POTUS.
BREAKTHROUGH U.S.–IRAN DEAL REPORTEDLY EXPECTED THIS WEEK
Sources familiar with mediation efforts told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that a breakthrough agreement between Washington and Tehran could be announced this week.
Negotiators are reportedly working to narrow differences and secure mutual concessions to prevent renewed military escalation.
No agreement has been officially confirmed.
Worst Nasdaq week in 18 months.
> QQQ -5.5%
> Stocks and bonds sold together
> Brent pushing $110
> $BTC -1.3%
Bitcoin barely flinched.
Digital assets aren’t disrupting finance.
They’re being integrated into it.
Custody → clearing → lending → derivatives → infrastructure.
And $GLXY is at the forefront.
Warsh called AI the most consequential economic change of his lifetime and barely touched on rates.
To me, the story is bigger than the next meeting. A successful investor looks beyond the next 1-2 months, and focuses on the next 1-2 years.
AI growth will only accelerate.
Carnage in markets and $BTC still won't break. Not saying it goes straight up from here, but when bad news stops working, it's time to pay attention.
Cognitive Capital retweeted
BREAKING: President Trump says his Administration will immediately begin sending $100 "checks" to over 20 million seniors to help pay for their Medicare Part B premiums.
Trump also says the "$5,000 Trump Dividend" will be distributed to every US Citizen if the Republicans win the midterms.
Really good framework here for valuing AI/data center names.
The biggest takeway: separate contracted MW, approved/unleased MW, and early-stage pipeline then assign value based on how de-risked each bucket is.
Apply that to $GLXY and the setup gets very interesting.
• 526 MW of critical IT load is already contracted to CoreWeave, supporting $1.2B+ of average annual revenue at 90%+ lease-level EBITDA margins.
• Another 830 MW at Helios II is approved but unleased. It should not receive full contracted value today, but it also shouldn’t be valued at zero.
• The remaining multi-GW pipeline deserves only heavily probability-weighted optionality.
Using that framework, I get to roughly ~$36/share for $GLXY today without assuming full value for the pipeline.
And if Helios II gets leased to another hyperscaler, the upside moves materially higher.
That’s why the next Helios lease matters so much.
The market still largely treats Galaxy as a crypto company with a data center asset.
I think the better framework is increasingly the opposite.
$RKLB is undervalued based on these numbers.
BLUE ORIGIN RAISES $10B AT $140B VALUATION
Jeff Bezos has now invested roughly $30B into Blue Origin since founding the company in 2000, including another $2B as part of its first outside funding round.
Internal projections show revenue rising from:
2025: ~$800M
2026: ~$1.4B
2030: $30B+
Blue Origin expects growth to come from New Glenn launches, a planned satellite communications business and a future fleet of AI satellites.
The company currently employs ~15,000 people and is rebuilding its Florida launch complex after a New Glenn vehicle exploded on the launchpad in May.
Source: WSJ
Cognitive Capital retweeted
“Galaxy has been very upfront, very open and very sensitive to the needs of or to the concerns of people relative to water.. My experience right now and what I've learned in dealing with this space is that we can be proud that Galaxy is really a good example to follow.. They seem to have everyone's interest at heart.”
- Dickens County Judge Kevin Brendle
“I can see that the small businesses that we have here, they're all doing much better business and I can see that through the sales tax that comes back into the city.”
- Dickens City Secretary Lillian Atkinson
$GLXY
lubbockonline.com/story/news…
$BTC is seeing real institutional demand.
US spot $BTC ETFs have seen ~$2.1B of net inflows in just 5 trading days.
That matters for $GLXY.
More institutional BTC demand means:
- higher asset prices
- more trading activity
- higher AUM
- greater institutional crypto participation
As more capital enters crypto, institutions will need trading, custody, asset management, staking, lending, tokenization and capital markets infrastructure.
Galaxy is becoming the one stop institutional shop for digital assets.
The bigger crypto gets, the bigger the opportunity for $GLXY.
DEBASER: Gold and Bitcoin ETFs have combined for +$7b in flows in past week, by far a record for a 5-day period as debasement trade steals spotlight from AI. GLD, IBIT leading, in Top 10 for week. Also notable $IBIT YTD flows are now positive, completely dug out of sizable hole.
$NVDA earnings tonight could be one of the most important read throughs for $GLXY this quarter.
What Jensen says about hyperscaler demand, customer ROI / financing and power availability is much more important than the EPS numbers.
The key question for Galaxy:
Is power still one of the biggest bottlenecks preventing AI compute from being deployed?
If the answer is yes (which I think it is), that’s extremely bullish for Helios.
AI demand continues to grow while Texas is simultaneously making it harder for new data centers to secure power, navigate regulation and get built.
Galaxy already has the power, infrastructure, relationships and a major tenant in $CRWV.
Growing AI demand + increasing barriers to new supply = a potentially much larger scarcity premium for $GLXY’s Texas assets.