Trading • Financial markets • Memes Charts when it matters. Jokes when it doesn’t. NFA
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Cold Execution retweeted
How analysts feel raising their price target after the stock already went up 60%
Cold Execution retweeted
Patience feels useless until you compare it with the cost of forcing trades.
Cold Execution retweeted
USDJPY update
After the initial sell-off of around 120 pips, many thought the BOJ was finally intervening in the yen and that the pair was about to move significantly lower.
Instead, USDJPY has recovered almost the entire move over the past few days and is now only a few pips away from retesting the local high around 162.80.
In my previous update, I said I was waiting for a clear break below the 160 area, with a possible short entry on the retest.
That hasn’t happened. So far, 160 has acted as support, and the pair has bounced strongly from it.
My broader view hasn’t changed though. I don’t think this can continue much higher. A yen this weak increases import costs and puts more pressure on Japanese households and the wider economy, so at some point the authorities will need to respond strongly.
Still, we have to trade the data and the chart, not empty predictions. Simply believing that the yen will eventually strengthen means nothing without a valid technical entry.
From here, I’m watching two possible scenarios.
The first—and best—scenario would be a clear break below 160, followed by a retest from underneath. That would be the cleanest short setup, although it now looks like the less likely scenario.
The second scenario, which price is currently moving toward, would be a retest of the local high around 162.80. From there, I’d be watching for either a double-top formation or a liquidity sweep above the level followed by a strong rejection.
Of course, the pair could continue higher. But I still don’t see it sustaining a move much above the 164–165 area.
Even if it does, that wouldn’t bother me. I won’t be looking for an entry without a clear technical setup. Above 163, there’s currently no valid level for me to short from, and I’m not interested in trying to call the exact top.
What's your views on $USDJPY?
Another update
It looks like the BOJ may have just started intervening in the yen.
This is exactly the kind of reaction we've been waiting for. I'll be watching the chart closely to see if it gives me an entry for a short.
However, as I mentioned before, finding an entry here won't be easy. There's always the possibility that this initial selloff reverses and pushes USDJPY higher again, just like it did when price dropped from 160.50 to 159.50, as you can see on the chart.
Personally, I don't think any move higher would last very long. But it could easily be enough to wipe out all the bears before the real move begins.
With that in mind, one scenario I really like, as shown on the chart, is seeing USDJPY break back below the 160 level, which has now turned from resistance into support, followed by a retracement into that area.
That's where I'd be looking for a short, if and only if the market gives me a proper setup.
The problem is that if the BOJ is genuinely intervening, they'll likely do it aggressively. In that case, the retracement may never come, and USDJPY will head straight toward the 156 area and lower.
Personally, I'm perfectly happy staying on the sidelines if I don't get a high-quality setup. Missing a trade is always better than forcing one.
What's your view on $USDJPY?
Cold Execution retweeted
Another update
It looks like the BOJ may have just started intervening in the yen.
This is exactly the kind of reaction we've been waiting for. I'll be watching the chart closely to see if it gives me an entry for a short.
However, as I mentioned before, finding an entry here won't be easy. There's always the possibility that this initial selloff reverses and pushes USDJPY higher again, just like it did when price dropped from 160.50 to 159.50, as you can see on the chart.
Personally, I don't think any move higher would last very long. But it could easily be enough to wipe out all the bears before the real move begins.
With that in mind, one scenario I really like, as shown on the chart, is seeing USDJPY break back below the 160 level, which has now turned from resistance into support, followed by a retracement into that area.
That's where I'd be looking for a short, if and only if the market gives me a proper setup.
The problem is that if the BOJ is genuinely intervening, they'll likely do it aggressively. In that case, the retracement may never come, and USDJPY will head straight toward the 156 area and lower.
Personally, I'm perfectly happy staying on the sidelines if I don't get a high-quality setup. Missing a trade is always better than forcing one.
What's your view on $USDJPY?
USDJPY Update
The resistance on USDJPY has now been broken with almost no selling pressure.
As I mentioned in my previous post, shorting simply because the BOJ is expected to intervene at some point would have been a mistake.
We needed to see a strong bearish reaction to confirm the bias, and that never happened.
That said, this doesn't change my longer-term view. I still believe the yen will strengthen eventually.
It's highly unlikely that the BOJ will allow USDJPY to keep climbing indefinitely. The higher the pair moves above 160, the greater the pressure on the Japanese economy as imported goods become more expensive and inflationary pressures increase.
For now, though, the technicals are still in control.
Until the market gives us a clear reversal signal, there's no reason to fight the trend.
Cold Execution retweeted
Gamblers who missed the SpaceX IPO getting ready to go all in when it joins Nasdaq 100:
Cold Execution retweeted
I joined X about a month ago. Since then, I’ve networked with many people in the trading (which is my niche) and investing space.
None of them were forex traders. Everybody was doing futures, crypto, some indices. But no one forex.
Has interest for forex trading started to decline among retailers?
Or is it just me who happened to not find anyone doing it? lol
Cold Execution retweeted
Wake up sir.
Your $SPY puts skipped take profit and went straight to stop loss.
