SPCX should be up 30% today. Here’s a great example of how Wall Street discounts what Elon says. Bottom line, analysts cut the low end of his guide in half. Last night he said they’ll exit 2027 with $500B-$1T in revenue run rate. I believe Elon implied the low was based on adding 10 GW of compute in CY27 and the high end 20 GW. My take is there’s a 75% chance they add 10 GW, and 2% chance of 20 GW. So we should focus on the low end, or $500B in ARR exiting 2027, or $125B in Dec-27. Before earnings, the Street was at $31B for Dec-27. He guided to $125B or 300% increase. $SPCX is up 12% on that. It should be 30% plus today. This morning the Street is at $50B. Since many analysts have yet to update numbers, we look at those that have made changes, and those are at around $70B, compared to the “guide” of $125B. That’s the 50% haircut.

Huge guide up in Capex. CFO Bret Johnsen says Dec quarter Capex of $35-$40B. Street was at $19B. $SPCX went up on the comment. Now up 5.2%. Was up 4% before the Capex comment. My take: Smart move. They have the demand. Also, good news for the AI trade that we are still early.

Grok is taking over my phone usage. $SPCX apps were 50% of my screen time last week. Lots of X (but a lot of that is Grok) plus Grok and Grok Bot. The point is that SpaceX could make a phone optimized for Grok at the OS layer that would beat the iPhone for 50%+ of my phone usage. $AAPL