cryptopian

Two scenarios 1. The August (give or take a month) shenanigans I pointed out have started. If so, this bounce will be poor and simmer this month to eventually sweep the recent low and then start trend continuation. Put into BTC terms, that would mean a maximum of 126k, possibly only 120k, with another flush retesting recent lows or lower, before trend continuation. 2. The August shenanigans have yet to take place, price will correct sharply from much higher and coincide with a much heavier macro event, sometime September. In BTC terms I would expect 182k+ with a flush back to 126k, roughly. Scenario 2 makes more sense to me. Current macro event seems to be negligible and prior instances that were comparable saw short lived downside with strong recoveries. The fact that we saw negative funding at the lows for bitcoin further reinforces the idea of a bounce after testing a major level in an otherwise large bull trend. Scenario 2 also indicates the start of the parabolic phase, which I thought we already launched, but this retest may now become the actual start and confirmation. Macro cycle top isn’t in if my models can be trusted and this correction so far is a blip. There is no reason to break market structure if trend is bullish and the odds for a break in structure are small as long as we haven’t seen a macro cycle top, if history is any guideline. For now BTC looks like a classic overthrow into major retest and recovery of overthrow, whilst witnessing a complete reset of mildly frothy rate metrics, suggesting capitulation on support. The lack of my timeline calling this as is and warning for miniscule more downside before entering may be the icing on the cake. Can be wrong, could be right, but if there is a point to roll the dice this is it imo.

ETH 4555 short term