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Connecticut
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Connecticut State Senate Ratings Update
5 GOP-held seats shift toward Dems amid a bluer national environment and Gov. Lamont’s strong polling, putting a 28D-8R majority in play.
SD-28, SD-36: Lean D -> Likely D
SD-35 -> Toss-Up -> Lean D
SD-7, SD-30 -> Likely R -> Lean R
An odd race in CT-HD-31, moderate Democratic incumbent Jill Barry lost the party convention to Moise Carelus in May, then skipped the primary.
Barry is running as an independent with GOP support in the general election against Carelus. Carelus is favored in this Harris +25 seat.
3 Republican legislators in seats won by Kamala Harris are unopposed. Rep. Tracy Marra in Harris +22, HD-141, Rep. Christine Carpino in Harris +8, HD-32, and Rep. Jason Buchsbaum in Harris +3, HD-69.
Carpino notably has been unopposed in 3 of the last 4 cycles.
State Rep. Tracy Marra (R-Darien) is running unopposed in HD-141, the bluest seat in the state held by a Republican legislator.
Marra won by 16 points in 2024, despite Kamala Harris winning her seat by a large 61-38 margin, the largest overperformance of any legislator in 2024.
Republican Chris Shea released an internal poll from OnMessage Inc. showing him down only 6 to incumbent Rep. Jahana Hayes in CT-05, 45-51.
With the race not expected to be competitive, national groups have stayed out. Shea hopes to show others the race is close.
NEW Poll shows CT-05 is the CLOSEST race in Connecticut!
And when voters hear about Chris’ background and Jahana Hayes radical record in Congress, her numbers plummet!
Our movement has brought together Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, because they’re sick of DC politicians only out for themselves.
Less than two weeks to go until Election Day, let’s win this!
CT Election Guide retweeted
New early voting numbers have been released for the state of Connecticut, showing that more than 170,000 votes have been cast as of Thursday!
Click the link below for the full breakdown of the numbers.
wtnh.com/news/elections/100k…
Connecticut State House Ratings 2026
Democrats are poised to expand their supermajorities in two weeks, targeting open seats and GOP-held Harris-won districts.
Republicans hope to avoid disaster, as losses in marginal seats could leave them with fewer than 35 of 151 seats.
CT Election Guide retweeted
From the opening statements, Gov. Ned Lamont and Republican challenger Ryan Fazio came out swinging in their first debate Thursday night as they clashed on everything from taxes and electric rates to President Donald Trump’s policies.… courant.com/2026/10/22/gov-l…
CT Election Guide retweeted
The state has released data revealing that more than 100,000 votes have been cast in the first two days of Connecticut's early voting, with Democrats making up a large majority.
Click the link here for the full data:
wtnh.com/news/elections/100k…
CT Election Guide retweeted
NEW: 80,076 people have already cast ballots in the first 2 days of Early Voting, according to @CTSotS -- plus an additional 25,458 absentee ballots
Biggest turnout in West Hartford, Milford, Stratford, Fairfield, Norwalk, and Stamford
CT Election Guide retweeted
UPDATE: 42,241 people voted early on the first day yesterday, according to @CTSotS
59% Democrats
15% Republican
26% Unaffiliated/Other
Sacred Heart/WFSB/CT Insider Poll
2026 Connecticut Governor General Election
Digital Survey
10/6-10/12 | 1000 RV | MOE +/- 3.1
🔵Ned Lamont - 53%
🔴Ryan Fazio - 31%
🟡Undecided - 15%
Sept Poll - Lamont 48-34
Likely Voters
🔵Ned Lamont - 59%
🔴Ryan Fazio - 33%
Happy Monday!
Today is the first day of early voting in Connecticut!
Polls will be open starting today through Sunday November 1st for early voting. Polls will be open from 10:00am to 6:00pm, with extended hours on 10/27 and 10/29 from 8:00am to 8:00pm
CT Election Guide retweeted
Wesleyan SurveyLab CT poll illustrates how pocketbook concerns that typically land at feet of an incumbent are not scoring for GOP's Ryan Fazio against CT Gov. Ned Lamont. Ya see, there's this president... ctmirror.org/2026/10/15/ct-w…
Unlike the statewide races, where only 2 candidates are on the ballot. The Independent Party is running their own candidates in the 3rd and 4th CDs: Thomas Egan and Benjamin Wesley.
Mary Sanders is running in the 1st CD under the Green Party for the 3rd consecutive cycle.
For the first time since 2002, no separate Independent or Third-party candidates are on the ballot for Governor.
The Independent Party cross-endorsed the Democrat or Republican nominee in all statewide races. So all 5 statewide offices will be a two-way race.
Republican nominee for Governor Ryan Fazio says the race is much closer the polls say. He says Lamont is still not above 50% in his polling.
Quinnipiac was slightly more blue in 2022, but not by a lot. October Poll in 2022 was Lamont +15. Lamont won by just under 13.
CT Election Guide retweeted
Something to think about…
Fazio has spent nearly $10 million on TV ads, mass text messaging, mailers, and campaign infrastructure in an effort to get his message out there.
30% of voters say they haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion.
#Connecticut Poll: #CTGov race: Lamont 58%, Fazio 38% in the final stretch; Fazio still unknown to 3 in 10 likely voters bit.ly/4B1wrE7
CT Election Guide retweeted
Last election’s Quinnipiac Polls had Lamont 57-40 in September and 56-41 in October
Final margin was 56-43, so it very likely could end up being a 59-41 or 57-42 race.
Given that the 2022 environment was slightly better in CT than it was elsewhere, only +4% isn’t surprising.