Augie, Jaeger, Otto: three maniacs that own me.

🇪🇺🇷🇺🇺🇸 Europe swapped Russian pipeline gas for American tankers, and in 2025 it paid more than three times what Americans pay for the same fuel The EU has rebuilt where its gas comes from in eight years. What it bought was safety from Moscow. What it pays for it is one of the highest gas bills among the big economies. From half to an eighth In 2018 Russia supplied half of the gas the EU imported from outside the bloc, according to Eurostat figures. By 2025 that share had fallen to about 13%. Norway took the top spot, rising from 24% to about 27% in 2025 and 29% in the first nine months of 2026. The biggest change came from across the Atlantic: American liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas cooled into a liquid and shipped by tanker, went from 0.3% of imports in 2018 to 16% in 2025, about 55 billion cubic metres. Qatar, a big supplier before, has almost vanished this year, from 17 billion cubic metres in 2018 to about 2 in January to September 2026, after the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz. How Europe got here For decades Europe, and Germany above all, bet that buying Russian gas would tie Moscow to the West. Germany took 55% of its gas imports from Russia in 2018 and backed the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic. The bet collapsed in 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine in February, cut flows over the summer, and the Nord Stream pipes were blown up in September. The EU then chose to leave Russian gas for good: it filled storage to strict targets, cut demand, opened new LNG terminals at speed and agreed to end Russian imports by 2027. Russian transit through Ukraine stopped on 1 January 2025. The price of the switch Pipeline gas from next door is cheap to move. LNG is not: it has to be cooled, shipped and warmed again, and Europe buys much of it at market prices in competition with Asia. In 2022 the market price hit a record €339 per megawatt-hour on 26 August, against an average of €22 in 2018. By 2025 the panic had passed, but the gap had not. The European market price averaged about $12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu, the unit gas is traded in), and the EU paid on average about $13.4 for its imports, according to our calculation from Eurostat trade data. For American LNG it paid about $15.3. Compare that with the others. In the United States, the benchmark Henry Hub price averaged $3.52 in 2025, the US Energy Information Administration says, so Europe paid between three and four times the American price. China's LNG imports cost about $465 a tonne from January to November, Chinese customs data reported by ICIS show, or roughly $8.9 per MMBtu on our conversion, about a quarter cheaper than Europe's market price. India's buyers paid around $11.9 for spot cargoes to its west coast, according to Argus, close to Europe's level. Why the gap Europe pays more because of where it chose to buy. The United States produces its own gas. China mixes LNG with long-term contracts and pipeline gas from Russia and Central Asia, which keep its average price lower. India, like Europe, relies heavily on LNG bought near market prices, so it pays similar prices. Europe gave up its cheapest source in a hurry, and the market knew it. The bill is not only in money. Europe traded one dependence for another. Russia now sends about 13% of its imported gas, but the United States sends 16% to 17% and Norway close to 30%, and the sea lanes matter more than before. This year showed the risk: when Hormuz closed, Qatari cargoes disappeared and the European market price climbed back to about €53 on average from January to September, and above €90 in October. The other side Defenders of the strategy argue that the old system was never cheap once the risk was priced in: Gazprom controlled Germany's largest storage site and left it nearly empty before the war. American and Norwegian supply comes from allies, not from a state at war with a neighbour. And Russian gas has not fully gone, with Russian LNG still landing in Europe in 2026. The 2027 end of Russian imports, the price of American cargoes as US export capacity grows, and whether Hormuz reopens before winter. If all three go wrong at once, Europe will feel 2022 again.