Long-term cycle, value, technical analysis; trading & investing || Become a sub: https://teapawt.net/t.co/nS75O2v3wJ
Hamburg, Germany
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$EWZ sold off hard after Lula’s surprising win this week, while markets had positioned for a Bolsonaro victory.
The fundamental thesis stays the same: with the commodity boom underway, Brazilian equities should benefit immensely over time. A change in government would have been the cleaner positive catalyst — but this isn’t Lula’s first term, and these equities have lived through it before.
$OIH is consolidating after its breakout from the multi-year range, building a flag before its next move higher.
Zooming out, this is what the early innings of a structural cycle look like. Years of underinvestment across the entire #oil services space are now meeting a world that still runs on - and needs more - energy. Capital is only just beginning to rotate back into a sector the market spent a decade writing off. As we said back in September: this cycle has only just begun.
Also, US #oil production has not yet responded to the price spike. Despite (supposedly) high prices, the current level is not yet incentivizing an expansion of US output.
Big breakout for $XLE on the monthly chart as well, gaining some real momentum here. The path stays clear — while keeping in mind that consolidations in a market like this will always occur along the way!
We have started adding less of what I would consider 'noise' to our reports. They are now more to the point of our thesis and thoughts, rather than just summarizing developments. In the age of AI, it is all about curating focus and prioritizing signal over noise
Here is your calendar for the highly anticipated week ahead! We've got the FOMC meeting, major tech earnings, and crucial inflation data coming up. Have a great start to the week!
AI is a game changer for growing small teams. Less outsourcing, more work getting done by the same generalists, no new hires needed.
Big corporations don’t let the business development department handle legal or tech stuff. That’s what other departments are for. These companies aren’t growing fast enough to benefit much from fewer new hires.
The more likely intermediate outcome is individual employees sitting there doing nothing after prompting.
A real bull case for nano- and microcaps.
APOLLO: AI HAS DELIVERED “ZERO PAYOFF” OUTSIDE BIG TECH
Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok warns that massive AI spending has yet to deliver measurable productivity gains across corporate America.
Revenue per worker and profit margins are rising for the Magnificent Seven but remain flat for the S&P 493.
Meanwhile, Gartner estimates $3.5 trillion in AI infrastructure spending could face impairment risk by 2030.
The key takeaway: AI investment is booming, but returns outside Big Tech remain elusive.
$RIG with a strong intraday reversal — down almost 5% intraday from yesterday’s close before turning around to finish today’s session green. Impressive strength!
December 2025, you could have just stayed long with us energy this year. It IS indeed the part of the cycle where geopolitical tensions are leading to a more sustained bid in oil.
While taking a bit longer than expected, the #oil price is still working on forming a bottom. We are in a #macroeconomic environment where geopolitical tensions could lead to more sustained increases in oil prices. Currently, tensions between Venezuela and the US are escalating. It will be interesting to observe whether this could trigger at least a somewhat more sustained bid in oil. #crude
Gold is an energy currency with unlimited supply. It always was and always will be. If energy costs are 0 so will be the price of gold. So please tell me how many millions of $ it costs to procuce 1oz of gold this way. I think you should rather start digging in your garden
Even in a historical comparison of the data, it is evident how little attention the #oil rally is getting compared with the last rally in 2022.
The latest BofA FMS data even shows that fundamental investors reduced their exposure to the #oil and #energy sector again last month. Although oil is the best-performing sector year-to-date, hardly anyone is positioned in it and the monthly flows show that capital was withdrawn from energy. This is exactly how sustainable rallies are born.
$IEO is near fresh all-time highs, showing exactly the continuation we called back in the summer after the consolidation (flag formation). Following the breakout, price paused briefly before pushing straight into new highs on strong volume. No overhead resistance, momentum fully intact, and the broader #energy trade still only getting started.
