Dennis DeBusschere

Near-term core inflation risks are still elevated over the next 3–4 months. Our call remains tighter financial conditions to slow growth and inflation over the next 6–8 months. The path to our benign slowing in growth / inflation looks bumpier though. All this and more in today's video on 22vad.com  --- For information and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

The AI capex concerns driving 10-year yields lower are about 2028 and beyond, not 2027. We have high conviction that 2027 AI capex plans will be met. The bigger question is whether longer-term AI business models can justify the roughly $7 trillion buildout through 2030. All this and more in today's 22 minutes with 22V. Watch it: open.spotify.com/episode/08q… ---- For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

Investors expect compute to remain undersupplied until after 2030, yet AI infrastructure stocks are trading as if oversupply could arrive by 2029. 22V's Dauvin Peterson and I discuss the disconnect between strong AI demand trends and compressing equity multiples, and what it means for the AI CapEx trade. See more at 22vad.com.  For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

Investors increasingly believe growth can remain well above the economic speed limit (roughly ~2% real GDP growth) despite 10-year yields around 5.3%. Our view is that the recent tightening in financial conditions should slow consumer spending toward real income growth. I also discuss the $400–600B of AI ARR needed to underwrite the next phase of the capex buildout. Full Episode: open.spotify.com/episode/3o2… --- For informational and educations purposes only. Not investment advice. Full Disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

As long as economic growth is strong and well above the economic speed limit, then the 10yr yield will adjust higher to encourage some slowing in consumption. For informational and educational purposes only. 22vad.com/disclosures/

After today's data, October hike odds have fallen to 38% from 70% yesterday, helping anchor the 2yr. Today’s inflation data was positive (dovish), but the economy remains strong and will keep upward pressure on the “stickier” parts of inflation. After today’s data it appears 3Q real spending is tracking +3.2% and MPO Core Services ex-housing PCE is tracking 3.6% YoY. The economic strength helps explain why the 10yr continues to move higher. For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

Financial conditions have become less easy by roughly 60 basis points...and the speed of that move matters. Our call is that the FCI tightening could be enough to slow consumer spending growth toward real income growth, meaning 10-year yields may not need to move significantly higher from here. That would be an important step toward bringing demand growth back toward the economy’s speed limit and easing inflation pressure over time. For informational and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclosures: 22vad.com/disclosures/

Thrilled to be part of this next chapter with the launch of 22V Advisory Direct. Our goal is simple: bring the same institutional-quality research that has guided our institutional clients to a broader audience of RIAs, financial advisors, and individual investors. Excited for what’s ahead. Learn more at 22VAD.com.

The AI boom may be too big for financial conditions to allow it to happen. Strong demand + persistent supply shocks + massive AI capex = rising inflation risk and potentially much tighter financial conditions. Today I walk through why the market setup is getting more complicated. FULL VIDEO HERE: vimeo.com/1223140443/a85884e… Full Disclosures here: 22vresearch.com/disclosures/