abel

Foreclosures are exploding in the boomerbelt. Doubling every month the last 3 months 🎉🥳 Victory Lap Time for the guy who got 3 suspensions in a row bc buttmad 70 yr olds—congratulations Dale, you're going to be evicted by the sheriff in 8 months—couldn't argue with my career exp. 2027 is *likely* going to be a housing recession in boomtowns like the goddless Dark Sun suburbiahell sprawl of Phoenix. Going to focus on that bc that's the 'market(s)' I actually know. Broad strokes; There doesn't need to be Ninja loans or an MBS crisis to trigger a crash in AZ or elsewhere. Equity is going to evaporate like a tittystreamer's bathwater fallen out of some Edgar's Nissan Altima out in the August sun. Even at the modest drop in prices we've seen or flatlining across the state, there is a significant amount of distress in the bulk of houses that were bought in the last 5 years and that's being generous (see my next post in thread). Inb4 someone says 'during the GFC (08-11) we had tens of thousands of notice of trustee sales every year'. Yeah dawg. Because delinquencies and defaults on mislabeled mortgage products (shit loans stuffed into traunches) triggered margin calls on Wall Street and curbstomped people like Lehman but the panic sell-off was bc people turned on the news and realized they were underwater, mailed in their keys, causing entire neighborhoods to go up in smoke. Key words there is panic and news. In our inflationary environment we don't need Lehman or the credit default swaps or even banks to default in order for there to be panic sell offs and a bloodbath. Thanks to inflation post-COVID, we have the perfect storm for both. I think back to the numbskull clients I had in early 2023 when rates dropped by a hair—HVAC guys who came in approved by the skin of their teeth and bought a flipped toasty gray shitbox for $515k . You think that genius with a leased Dodge Dam has beaten inflation these last 2 years? None of them have under $3500 a month payments by the way—none of them thought that rates would stay above 5.5%, god forbid they would stick at 7.5% 2 years later. Not even a high rate it's just an untenable environment for growth. "I don't care about AZ. I live in Cornfield, Cornfield State. This doesn't affect me." Boomers make up more than 52% of all wealth in the US and 33% of retail spending and 41% real estate. How much of that is tied up in the Boomerbelt? What happens if suddenly all the geriatrics lose even 30% of their RE value in the next year or two? What if their investments (vast majority of rental properties are owned by individuals, and most of those are boomers) go tits up if there are foreclosures in their neighborhood? You're a fucking crackhead if you think this doesn't cause massive ripples in our economy—just keep watching the Crumbl cookie locations close. I'm going to restate one last time; Gen Z and even most young Millenials are not going to pick up or touch this distressed RE. They have smart phones and hard data a prompt away on any LLM. They're going to let the boomers hang. **If you think the foreclosure auctions/notice of trustee sales are low, go ahead and pick a random neighborhood, random house and see how many are underwater already.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino tells Americans to take 30-day emergency preparedness warnings seriously.