ilyajoon 🗿

Regarding "new coin good, old coin bad" Here is how I see one of the most debated points in the holder spreadsheets we have seen. First of all, statistics are all about how the data can tell the story, and you can cut the pie in a thousand ways the quote is a generalization towards new flavors entering bull markets and liquidity cascades which is extremely reasonable notice correlation with the higher the conviction score the more concentrated the distribution is within retail holders and crypto natives conviction does not scale; it concentrates bullish deductions with higher "Conviction Score" - display of community - display of display of community having conviction negative deductions with higher "Conviction Score" - as these coins mean revert with market maker tailwinds(see Gate.IO wintermute flows on @arkham, holders will be subject to rotation) meaning risk to reward shifts elsewhere etc etc - conviction can be borrowed and amplified via noise overall the point i am going to make is the holder count conviction score is a terrible mid curve way to determine a predictor to upside IMHO remember no herd usually front runs a 1000x these decabillion rips historically are EXTREMELY REFLEXIVE and HAPPEN out of NOWHERE now for example with popcat you only have 1.48% of holders holding greater than $1k TLDR go to top 30holders on solscan(mostly exchanges) what does this mean? - less bag-holder weight from previous cycle. attention is elsewhere hence it is left curve on a holder weight distribution while narrative appetite is at an ATH in the bottom of a new bull market most holders either got shaken out or traded into other positions or gambled. same case with doge pre 21' expansion in the case of new coins good, old coins bad there is a rare exception that MUST be considered IMO take $ADA, $XRP, $DOGE, $LTC and some of the dinosaurs that did insane parabolas in 21' after the 17' warmup run this is where some things stand today the cat appetite is bigger than ever the distribution is greater than ever this is the single biggest pressure valve in crypto building am not saying at all that new coins are bad. great to see both sides and always consider these things imo