Prev. market maker (index & equity derivatives) & buy-side (L/S) building software to run an autonomous trading firm. @ucla @wesleyan_u

New York, NY
Joined July 2013
1) Capital is becoming personal. 2) Markets are becoming programmable.
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State of the union
So basically, today PHP got two critical bugs that let anyone run code on your server without even logging in, which is bad, and then the details leaked before the patch was even out, which is worse, and it works on WordPress and MediaWiki and Magento and Joomla and Laravel, and Censys says like 1.5 million servers are running a version with no fix, so the NSA was like "take your system offline," and the FBI was like "take your system offline," and CISA and the UK and CERT-EU were all like "take your system offline," and then the Prime Minister of Japan, the actual Prime Minister, posted at 5:55 in the morning telling 48.8 million people to take their system offline, so everyone took their system offline, like the Dutch cybersecurity agency took its own website offline, and the Dutch parliament went offline, and the Port of Rotterdam went offline, and Finland and France and Denmark started pulling government sites, and Wikipedia went down, and Archive.org went down, and Asana and GOG and Something Awful went down, and the University of Vienna's webmail went down for some reason, and that's just PHP. Because GitLab also dropped a CVSS 10.0, which is the highest score they give out, for a bug that's been there since 2014, so that's every self-hosted GitLab for twelve years, and then LiteLLM 1.107.0 got hijacked and shipped a credential stealer and a remote access trojan in every single wheel and the Docker images, including latest, and you didn't even have to import it, just installing it was enough, and it's the second time this year, and then Railway paused every deployment on the entire platform because someone got into the environment variables, so now everyone has to rotate every secret they've ever stored there, and TiDB Cloud said someone was walking around inside with stolen credentials for basically a month and an extortion group says they took 10.6 terabytes, and Zeabur got breached for the second time in two months and is just shutting down, like the whole company, and Node.js patched remote code execution and a TLS bypass, and CISA says Plex is being actively exploited, and someone took over 300 Tor exit relays to steal SSH passwords, and SafePay ransomware has hit over 600 critical infrastructure orgs, and India's biggest bank filed a data loss incident, and Japan has been in an official state of emergency in cyberspace since October 9, which honestly explains the 5:55 AM post. Oh, and eMudhra, a certificate authority that's issued over 60 million certificates, whose entire job is proving websites are who they say they are, was supposed to be using private keys that are random numbers over a hundred digits long, and one of them was 4. Just 4. And the others were like 66 and 237. Anyway, it's Wednesday.
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Musk company earnings calls always 10x more interesting than other companies
Elon on Terafab: "It will have an economic value that will place it in the top 20 of countries, in a building."
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Dave Goldman retweeted
after 3 days of accumulation mid 60s $PCVX broke out of range. this is one of my favorite setups. upside to mid 70s (long).
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chips & memory are <30% of the S&P 500 today yet make up 70%+ of aggregate EPS revisions and growth estimates in FY27 NVDA alone is 25% of FY27 EPS growth
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Dave Goldman retweeted
Weird, surely you'd choose to make the non-refundable $350,000 donation rather than the non-refundable $800,000 donation
Successful applicants will either have to make a non-refundable donation of $350,000 to Argentina's Treasury or purchase a zero-coupon government bond worth $800,000. ft.trib.al/bo4UypO
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it's so crazy how fast the meaning of "good software" changed to just mean well-trained AI teammates
Grok Bots can be triggered from any platform That's because they support web hooks! To get started - just ask your bot 'how can I set up web hooks?'
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Kaz correctly understands that turnover is primary driver of $OPEN business, and turnover is accelerating. Transition from "bag holder" -> market maker. Kaz: "We had a choice. Slow sales, protect the margin number, and let homes age. Or price to clear. Old Opendoor chose the first option for years...We are not doing that again....We are going to clear homes, even when that hurts margins." You can track turnover performance (they call it "Relative Clearance"): accountable.opendoor.com/
There has been a lot of speculation lately about where Opendoor is on the path to ANI break-even, and I worry some folks think we are further ahead than we actually are. Rather than have you guess, I want to do two things. First, give you a direct update on how Q3 is tracking, and second, start releasing numbers more frequently so you can track our progress for yourself and hold us accountable. To say the thing up front: we are not at ANI break-even yet. What we are seeing in the actual numbers of the business this week, the speed of underwriting, the accuracy of our models, the response from our users and the forward revenue created are all going very well. We’re making lots of progress, but rebuilds are bumpy. TL;DR: The worsening housing market at the end of August pushed us roughly six to eight weeks behind on our Adjusted EBITDA guideposts, meaning the twelve-month window in which we expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable now starts this quarter rather than last quarter. For Q3, we expect revenue to increase 10-15% year over year, Contribution Profit dollars to increase 70-75% year over year, and Contribution Margin to land between 3.2% and 3.5%. We still expect to exit 2026 ANI-positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis. On our first earnings call I told you we would make the right long-term decisions for the business, not manage it around a quarterly number. August tested whether we meant it. For most of its life as a public company, Opendoor sold homes slower than the market. Between our IPO and my start date, we cleared at roughly 85% of market pace and lagged the market two days out of every three. We held on to homes under the belief that waiting protected margins. Holding homes was our own version of bloodletting, the "cure" for weak margins. It did not work, and it made this company fragile. Over my first year, we changed that. We now clear significantly faster than the market, beating it nearly nine days out of ten. This is our job: clear faster. When we reported earnings in early August, July contribution margin was tracking ahead of our plans and the housing market looked like it might be stabilizing. Instead, the last two weeks of August were among the worst we have seen for housing in years. Clearance slowed further and delistings stayed high. That is not an excuse - it’s just what happened. We had a choice. Slow sales, protect the margin number, and let homes age. Or price to clear. Old Opendoor chose the first option for years. It made the quarter look better, but it made the company worse. We are not doing that again. Time has a cost, and selling homes fast is the discipline this business requires. We are going to clear homes, even when that hurts margins. Our job is to sell homes, not park inventory or pull listings offline when things get tough. The market got worse, but it did not break our resale engine. We are still clearing faster than the market. That is part of the business we rebuilt, and it held. Don’t confuse any of this with the business moving backwards. The business is in materially better condition today. Revenue and contribution margin will both be higher year over year. And as the rest of the rebuild catches up, a market like this will hurt us less going forward. Nothing longer-term is changing. We expect Opendoor will be ANI-positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis exiting 2026. That depends on buying fast and selling fast. If margins were resetting permanently, that would change things. That is not what is happening. We are repricing one book of inventory and clearing it instead of rolling it into next year. To help you follow all that we are doing better, both on sales and acquisitions, we are going to give you more to track every week on accountable.opendoor.com. Just as you should not have to wait until earnings to see what is happening on acquisitions, you should not have to wait to see how many homes we sold or how fast we cleared. Last week, we sold 223 homes, and cleared 19% faster than the market, adjusted for delistings. The weekly numbers will be noisy, just as the acquisition numbers were when we first started publishing them. What matters is the trend: as we buy more homes, are we selling them at the pace we planned and staying ahead of the market or not? And when we are behind, you will see it for yourself. I told you how we would manage this company: for years, not quarters. Twelve months from now, judge us based on that. Either we fixed the company or not. The core metrics say we are on track. For Q3, year over year, we expect margin to be up. Revenue up. Velocity up. The end of August was absolutely brutal for housing and pushed us back by roughly six to eight weeks. We’re not going to take that sitting down. Kaz (fyi, regular disclosures on this type of thing where we release weekly numbers etc are on our IR page, investor.opendoor.com)
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Incredible and possibly the answer to simulating tail-hedging or tail outcomes
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI? I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev • 20-200x faster • 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free) • Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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$AAPL Duo -> ASP up Do not fade simple narratives, lots more room
Meta keeps trying to do hardware If I’m Apple I’m launching reference image + a new instagram competitor “For humans only” as the new blue bubble lock-in
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How bad is tmrw’s CPI number 😂
TRUMP SITS DOWN FOR EXCLUSIVE INGRAHAM INTERVIEW President Donald Trump has given Laura Ingraham an exclusive interview, with Part One airing tonight at 7 PM ET on The Ingraham Angle. Fox’s current schedule confirms the program’s 7 PM ET slot.
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Meta keeps trying to do hardware If I’m Apple I’m launching reference image + a new instagram competitor “For humans only” as the new blue bubble lock-in
Apple Reference Image is new. It grabs sensor level data to create a reference image, basically digital negative, that you can keep alongside an edited photo. Helps verify real, authentic, unedited photos.
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Agentic insurance for consumer apps is smart way to use balance sheet for growth
Replying to @alexandr_wang
2/ also for the first time ever, through this partnership, we are providing agentic payment protection – if Muse makes a mistake, a refund guarantee will cover it. More details here: support.link.com/questions/w…
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Readers need to take this as rallying cry not just a prediction, bc it's either this or global debt defaults and rebellion it's your duty to free yourself
AI+robots will more than double the global economy in less than 10 years
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$SPWR fundraise eliminates much of the left tail - Provides operating capital to reach FCF+ in turnaround next 4 qtrs - Expectations of dilution (interest paid in stock) materially reduced - More evidence mgmt commited to equity Investors underwriting against $1-3+ scenarios
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1) Sep 18 is the final day for $SPCX index tracking buy flow. 2) Late Sep/early Oct Anthropic IPO to price Bankers are not dumb! SPCX move higher sets up appetite for Anthropic. Excellent planning from capital markets teams.
I'm seeing a lot of bad info on $SPCX unlock. The Aug 6 & 11 share unlocks will produce mechanical DEMAND, not supply. NASDAQ indexing inclusion is by mkt cap, but also weighted by float; full inclusion happens at 33.3% float/outstanding ratio. So the Aug 6 and Aug 11 unlocks actually produce ~$11.6-11.7B in NASDAQ index-linked buying for Sep 18 (exact amt announced Sep 11). Including Vanguard non-nasdaq indexing, ~14.8% of the unlocked shares from these 2 periods become mechanical demand.
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No one who believes in AGI or a meaningful alternative wants to sell their shares in any frontier lab. These are headlines set up to tempt short selling
*ANTHROPIC IPO WOULD LIKELY BE HELD IN LATE SEPTEMBER OR EARLY OCTOBER: INFORMATION
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"cross-asset thrust higher, rewarding long beta, long volatility exposures" ^^ Since alerting, everything beta (SPX Crypto Commodities Credit etc) all higher, and call skew continues to be bid higher as we go. Long beta, long volatility exposure outperform, otherwise known as spot up-vol up. Participant modeling now shifts marginal buying towards buy backs and earnings and macro, followed by CTA trend following. The next leg still points higher but the hurdle will be Warsh at Jackson Hole where positioning is underexposed to downside. That reverts after tomorrow pointing higher once again.
"Would keep lookout for vol up-spot up thrust up" ^^^ This is exactly what you see today. Market participant with known multi-bn $ selling + vol suppression inverts to buying, and market demonstrates clear character change. Now we have cross-asset thrust higher, rewarding long beta, long volatility exposures
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I wonder who would be the marginal buyers after Ken has tapped ~$80b bid from first 80% risk unwind
Replying to @GavinSBaker
And given that Citadel likely has $500 billion of gross, this means it is most likely over from a selling pressure perspective.
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"Would keep lookout for vol up-spot up thrust up" ^^^ This is exactly what you see today. Market participant with known multi-bn $ selling + vol suppression inverts to buying, and market demonstrates clear character change. Now we have cross-asset thrust higher, rewarding long beta, long volatility exposures
SPX friday AM dealer positioning = suppressive charm + long gamma under us Throughout week, dealers sell futs until hedged as if expired. Most hedging now done and lid fully by 830am tmrw. Meanwhile back month implieds cheap Would keep lookout for vol up-spot up thrust up
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Multiple crypto execs specifically went after HL's auto-deleveraging (ADL) at the CFTC meeting
CFTC livestream discussion on agentic trading and crypto regulation cftc.gov/Webcast/current
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