Moved to Mastodon. Find us at @electiongraphs@newsie.social.
Everett, WA
Joined August 2015
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This account and our sister account @ElecCollPolls are shutting down here, merging, and opening up over on Mastodon for the 2024 Presidential election season. Find us over there at @[email protected]. Thanks!
I just added a final update to our Election Results tracking post to reflect that there were no faithless electors and no changes at the session that just ended. Thanks again everyone for following us in 2020. See you again for 2024!
electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
With Georgia called for Biden a little bit ago, we now have calls for everything. So we are officially at Biden 306, Trump 232. So a margin of Biden by 74.
With that, we wrapped up our results post with an initial look at how we did. Which was not bad.
electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
We have a call from @DecisionDeskHQ on NC, so we updated our post tracking our results. New range of possible outcomes based on uncalled “Weak” states is Biden by 42 to Biden by 74. If things go as per the current counts, we’ll have Biden by 74.
electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
Fox called NV as well, so assuming all the calls hold (including the AZ call) the range of possible outcomes based on how the uncalled states go is from Biden by 42 to Biden by 104.
Looks like all the major news outlets simultaneously called Pennsylvania, and the whole election, when Biden's lead went over 0.5% a few moments ago. But we were past that point yesterday. We'd already moved PA to the Biden column.
And even if AZ is uncalled, the range would be Biden by 8 to Biden by 104. It is over either way.
With @DecisionDeskHQ calling PA for Biden, unless the folks who called AZ reverse their calls, we now have the range of possible outcomes ranging from Biden by 30 to Biden by 104.
Biden wins the Presidency.
The only remaining question is by how much.
electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
With @DecisionDeskHQ calling PA for Biden, unless the folks who called AZ reverse their calls, we now have the range of possible outcomes ranging from Biden by 30 to Biden by 104.
Biden wins the Presidency.
The only remaining question is by how much.
electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
Of course moments after I tweet that, ME-CD2 gets called for Trump by AP. That was also “Weak Biden” with a Biden lead of 2.7%. Odds wise we said Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning ME-CD2.
So far, the only state that flipped sides relative to our final categorizations is Florida, which was “Weak Biden”. Biden was at an 0.7% lead. We translated that to a 53.2% chance of a Biden win, 46.8% for a Trump win. Close to a coin-toss. So a flip was not surprising at all.
I’ve been updating the post below as states have been called through the night based on how the remaining “weak” states might swing back and forth.
Current range of possibilities goes from Trump by 42 EV to Biden by 118 EV.
Lots of possibilities still out there.
No more new polls for @ElecCollPolls!
Final nowcast:
Ind States Median: Biden+108 (-16)
Cats Expected: Biden+132 (Flat)
Tipping Pt: Biden+2.3% (-0.7%)
Biden Win odds: 68.1% to 97.2%
(Mid Pt 82.7%)
Final blog post coming soon.
electiongraphs.com/2020ec/
#Election2020
I still have a bunch of polls in the hopper to get added to the site. I’m working on that now. I’m not sure if any stragglers will get released Tuesday morning, but I’ll be closing the books on Election 2020 at 18:00 UTC (1 PM Eastern, 10 AM Pacific). We’re nearly at the end…
New nowcast for Monday including the latest logged by @ElecCollPolls. A few more yet to come.
Ind States Median: Biden +124 (+12)
Cats Expected: Biden+132 (+30)
Tipping Pt: Biden+3.0% (-0.5%)
Trump Win Odds: 1.2% to 26.3%
(Mid Pt 13.8%)
electiongraphs.com/2020ec/
#Election2020
1.5 Days Out: Good Poll Cycle for Trump
electiongraphs.com/blog/2020…
#Election2020
