@electionsjack
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Chair of Data and Technology for the Madison (AL) County Democratic Party. Degrees in Economics and Mathematics.
Huntsville, AL
Joined August 2026
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Now RE-introducing the NEW AND IMPROVED 2026 Alabama Legislative Forecast!
jacksonahannan.github.io/ala…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Here are the 2024 results for the states Trump & Vance are visiting in the home stretch:
Mississippi: 🔴 Trump +23
Texas: 🔴 Trump +14
Ohio: 🔴 Trump +11
Florida: 🔴 Trump +13
Iowa: 🔴 Trump +13
Montana: 🔴 Trump +20
Kansas: 🔴 Trump +16
Michigan: 🔴 Trump +1
Avg: 🔴 Trump +14
This week, President Donald J. Trump will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Corinth, Mississippi
TUESDAY (10/27): Corpus Christi, Texas
TUESDAY (10/27): Lubbock, Texas
WEDNESDAY (10/28): Chillicothe, Ohio
FRIDAY (10/30): Daytona, Florida
SUNDAY (11/1): Dubuque, Iowa
Vice President JD Vance will visit:
MONDAY (10/26): Belgrade, Montana
MONDAY (10/26): Topeka, Kansas
TUESDAY (10/27): Howell, Michigan
MORE TO COME... 👀
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Literally gaining everywhere. Also he may outperform his 2022 margin (short of 2%) 93.2% counted
🟥#Lula 60.0 Million (51.7%)
🟦#Flavio 56.4 Million (48.3%)
Yeah this is JOEVER
#Brazil #Eleições2026
Lula is gaining in every state vs. Round 1
Estimates 🟥LULA 51.4% (+6.2)
🟦FLAVIO 48.6% (+1.6)
104.8 Million counted/85.2% reporting
🗺️@ElxMapping electionenjoyer.com/brazil/a… #Brazil🇧🇷 #Lula
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Every day has been >100% of 2024 turnout.
Each day has seen non-2024 voters grow their share of the total daily turnout (13% on day 1, 20% on day 6).
Most interestingly, the areas with the strongest turnout increases are the rural, low-education areas outside of core McAllen-Edinburg.
These are the Trumpiest parts of the Valley, and also are seeing the highest concentrations of non-2024 voters.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Lula is gaining in every state vs. Round 1
Estimates 🟥LULA 51.4% (+6.2)
🟦FLAVIO 48.6% (+1.6)
104.8 Million counted/85.2% reporting
🗺️@ElxMapping electionenjoyer.com/brazil/a… #Brazil🇧🇷 #Lula
I'm seeing everywhere swinging towards Lula.
Urban, rural, different demographic buckets. Every state.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Through seven days of early voting, Hidalgo County, TX (92% Hispanic, population 920K), is outpacing its 2024 presidential election turnout at the same point.
16% of early voters didn't vote at all in 2024. A microcosm of the exceptionally strong Hispanic turnout across Texas.
Fwiw the model I threw together has the vote swinging 4.62% towards Lula in the only completed areas we can compare.
Caution of n=10
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Serbia, 56.0% sample of CeSID / Ipsos parallel count:
National parliament election
SL-*: 52.0% (+52.0)
SNS+-EPP: 39.3% (-8.8)
SPS/JS+-*: 2.3% (-4.4)
SVM-EPP: 0.9% (-0.8)
NDSS/PKS-*: 0.8% (-4.4)
PDD+-*: 0.8% (+0.8)
SDP/CDP-*: 0.5% (+0.5)
SDA Sandžaka-NR: 0.4% (-0.2)
PSS BK-*: 0.4% (+0.4)
SPP-*: 0.3% (-0.5)
SSP/SRCE+-PES: 0.3% (+0.3)
RS/NKPJ-*: 0.2% (-0.1)
LZS-*: 0.1% (+0.1)
SRSJ-*: 0.1% (+0.1)
NS/BUNT-*: 0.1% (-0.8)
Gruda-*: 0.1% (+0.1)
SBR/GSGS-*: 0.0% (-0.2)
ĆOJZT-*: 0.0%
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/serbia
CRTA Initial Projection:
51.47% for the Student List
40.45% for Vucic
No other parties pass the threshold.
@nikicaga
Jackson Hannan retweeted
New from me:
Alabama Democrats are mobilizing to keep one of the country’s few Southern, Black Democrats in Congress.
U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures is one of several Black Democrats in Congress endangered by redistricting, as Republicans in different states redraw lines and try to shore up their majority in Washington, D.C.
Figures is criss crossing his new district, trying to appeal to old supporters and find new ones.
“They tried to make this district one that we cannot win,” Figures said Thursday night at a rally in Montgomery, the largest city in District 2.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
TEXAS IPEV DAY 6 UPDATE
Yesterday was the first weekend voting. The 2024 EV - 2026 recall shift is now down to 8.4 points. Adding in the other rural counties, being conservative this implies a 5 pt shift (Trump +8.7 electorate among 2024 voters).
The weekend voting saw the expected bump for Democrats, who reversed the reddening through the end of the first week. Places like Collin/Denton/Montgomery all had their bluest day on record, as they did in 2024.
We now have Bexar, and El Paso added in, and they both behave like big metros. El Paso Dems especially are putting up an extremely strong electorate shift. Tarrant Dems recovered quite a bit as well.
We added Wilson County - blue collar deep-red San Antonio exurbs. As is true with Hardin, the electorate is barely budging. But, as with Hardin, their turnout rate is low (<80% of 2024 so far for both). The same is true for the white precincts in Nederland/Groves in Jefferson County - their electorate is barely budging but their turnout is lacking.
The Latino shift is really strong still in Houston/Dallas/Tarrant/rural Hidalgo/Cameron - Dems still have a lot of votes out in Bexar/Nueces.
HD-144 in South Houston/Pasadena has a D+10 turnout shift among 2024 voters *and* 20% of the electorate not having cast a ballot in 2024. Wonder how that will break.
So far nothing too surprising here quite yet - the U-shape is manifesting, and the Republican 3/3 voters are going to continue mid-loading. Dem low prop voters are going to continue backloading towards the end of the week/EDay.
We are down from 64% of voters being 3/3 on day 1 to just 52% - so low prop voters are selecting weekends.
Sunday should probably see an influx of black voters into the electorate, followed by some red days Monday/Tuesday and then the last few days after that I would expect to get bluer.
Stay tuned for more, we will do our next Space on Wednesday!
Interactive: claude.ai/artifact/QSaAiFYUj…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
The concern for Republicans is that the trend is generally moving in the wrong direction.
The gaps were always large but were bigger in the second half of the week than in the first. Republicans hope this trend reverses in the second week.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Lookit man, I don't blame anyone who says "the country is too polarized for a >D+9 GB" because they either didn't watch/remember '08's fundamentals/data. I sure wasn't (I was 9).
But the President's approval is Bush-level. Economic sentiment is low. There's a deeply unpopular war in the Middle East. We're seeing a large turnout differential in a lot of states in EV and LV modeling.
In 2018, President Trump was only -7. He had a great economy, and a polarizing Supreme Court nomination to excite the base. He ain't got any of that (-44 with Independents currently).
You better start believing in 2008 stories, because you're in one.
In the September update to the @Gallup party id series, Democrats enjoy their largest partisan advantage since July 2008.
Jackson Hannan retweeted
Size of the 'blue wave' isn't just about how far Dems get in US House.
Hundreds of local offices could flip if Dems have a great night—AGs, county governments, utility commissions, school boards.
Lots to peruse on my guide to 670 items to watch! boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
Jackson Hannan retweeted
The early voting blog is updated!
With help from fellow data obsessives @G_BAILOR and @ErikJimenezNV, a look at congressional and legislative races. Still looks difficult for Dems in CD2, but Dem CDs look safer and Carson City carnage possible for GOP.
thenevadaindependent.com/art…
