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It's time for an update, after a little less that two months. $50 → $3000
Kalshi: +$960
Polymarket: +$1470
@PredictHQ_ +$500
Special thanks to
@radarmentions for the best tools for analysis
@alch3my101 for being my first contact in the space
@PredictHQ_ for the massive help with motivation and capital with their weekly competition
@MentionMetrix for letting me in in their close group of like minded individuals
@locksy for always making laugh with his streams, if u are reading this, hope u find ur latina haha.
Crazy to think May just started.
My DM is always open.
Cool thing that the order panel remembers one order strike per box so you can have the amount and price ready
My World Cup + Bernie mentions setup w/Kalshi Pro
Huge mentions weekend with World Cup finals, 3rd place game, and FOUR bernie rallies!
I've been using Kalshi Pro for some of these bigger multi-market events, and ran through in this video how I used it.
I may have also unintentionally shared some of my positions for this weekend in here too... oops :)
Quote tweet or reply with a screenshot or short video of how you use Kalshi Pro for a chance at access to God Mode. Video has more info!
youtu.be/ecQS_QaLVJo
f1ve retweeted
🚨 MENTIONS PERFECT GAME $1,000 EVENT🚨
If you pick 26/26 of Trump's strikes in his roundtable today, you get $1000 for free!!
(If no one has a perfect game, top picker gets $100)
Enter picks by 3:45 ET and lock them in.
No purchase necessary. Just sign up for a free mentions terminal account. Must also enter your Kalshi account (if you don't have one use code radar20 for $20 free).
Rules are on the site. Just a fun little experiment and I'm pretty sure I checked my math and someone won't actually hit this but if you do I will give you $1,000 :)
Good luck traders! (Inspired by @alch3my101 idea and @locksy playing every strike in an NBA game other day, and ofc the $1B giveaway on Kalshi).
f1ve retweeted
I'm not really trying to comment on whether Polymarket handled this well, or who was right and who was wrong.
My guess is that a lot of crypto people looked at the whole MicroStrategy selling drama and saw opportunity rather than a scam.
They saw uncertainty beating facts over and over again.
The people who actually lose money are always a minority compared to the massive retail crowd. Even if most people lose money somewhere, there will always be more people coming in to lose money. What they see is the opportunity to make money. That is the appeal of PvP.
It is the same reason everyone complains about memecoins while continuing to trade them. Most participants end up losing money, yet they keep coming back.
Think about it carefully. Do you really believe gamblers care more about fairness than uncertainty?
Uncertainty is intoxicating. It is far more attractive than facts.
What are facts and certainty, anyway? Those are things only a small number of serious traders truly care about.
That never changes.
And looking at the outcome, Polymarket’s dormant traffic was suddenly brought back to life. Massive volume. Huge fees. Countless people made countless money from it.
It is hard to argue that Polymarket did not love the result.
Maybe one day people will get tired of prediction markets the same way they eventually got tired of trading memecoins. When that day comes, these little frenzies will gradually disappear.
After all, did you have fun?😝
+$900 in the second week, the tracker is slightly off.
All the profit comes from the bilateral w/ China, some weird things happened in Poly.
Strange week overall.
f1ve retweeted
One of the hardest things to do in mention markets is size up your bets as your portfolio grows.
Thanks @ mm33 for recommending this graph be added to the P&L analyzer, free in Mentions Terminal!
You can see I've done ok at sizing up my bets as my port has grown! From an average of $800 per event closer to $2.5k.
Though, if you flip to % (in reply below), you'll see my % of portfolio went from about 6% down to like 3% on average... so not quite sizing up relative to bankroll.
Reply with your charts! Would love to see some more data...
and lmk if you think this tool is useful or what else you'd like to see!
Free to check out at mentionsterminal.com/year-pn…
I broke $1k in Kalshi and it looks like we'll have a slow week in mentions.
Perfect timing for an irl challenge/celebration, what should I do?
Today, May 1 was the wildest of days for mentions Polymarket.
Market: Trump remarks at The Village
A trader with 3.4MM life-time PNL decided to place a massive limit order of 100K shares of American Dream Y at 62c near the end of Trump speech.
Madness started and traders rushed to fill the order within minutes, even Kalshi order book got affected as many decided this to be a good opportunity to do an arbitrage/hedge.
Idk more details at the moment, so if anyone of you has more info happy to read you.
polymarket.com/@gcottrell93
Well, competition is over, time for some sleep while waiting for results and the Trump schedule of tomorrow.
+$700 this week. @PredictHQ_ leaderboard is almost finished and there's no more mentions.
I'm cursed once again at 2nd place.
Send alpha pls 😿
