
โฝ Numbers behind the beautiful game | ๐ง [email protected] | ๐น๏ธ Simulator, ๐ฐ Prize Money Lab and extra content ๐
Joined October 2023
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๐ฝ๏ธ UEFA title holder rebalancing may sound complicated, so we made a video that explains how it works and how teams get a direct ticket to UCL/UEL league phase๐๏ธ
Likeliest candidates for title holder rebalancing tickets in 2027:
๐ต (to enter UCL) ๐ฌ๐ท Olympiacos
๐ (to enter UCL) ๐ต๐น Sporting CP
๐ข (to enter UEL) ๐ฌ๐ท Olympiacos again!
โถ๏ธ Full video on our YouTube channel, give us a follow:
youtu.be/WGM5WQ1dq8k
๐ก๏ธ Still unbeaten in Europe's top flights, as of 26 Oct.
โ 5 unbeaten runs ended this weekend:
๐ช๐ธ Barcelona (9-0-0), 1-2 v Real Madrid
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Man City (7-0-0), 1-2 at Aston Villa
๐ต๐น Sporting CP (5-3-0), 1-2 v A. Viseu
๐ต๐ฑ Legia (6-5-0), 1-2 v Lech Poznaล
๐ฝ๐ฐ Prishtina (7-2-0), 0-3 v Drita
42 teams have yet to lose a league match.
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ท๓ ฌ๓ ณ๓ ฟ The New Saints lead the way, 14 league games unbeaten!
๐ Countdown of the 15 likeliest champions in Europe's open title races, on our projections.
From #15 to #1, then the three leagues decided this week, and the two that were already done.
All 54 title races, live: football-md.com/champions-waโฆ
๐ก๏ธ Still unbeaten in the ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ๐ช๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฎ๐น๐ซ๐ท Big-5 leagues, as of 26 Oct.
Only 6 teams left, and all of them are in ๐ฎ๐น Italy and ๐ฉ๐ช Germany:
๐ฎ๐น Inter 7-1-0
๐ฎ๐น Lazio 7-1-0
๐ฎ๐น Milan 5-3-0
๐ฎ๐น Roma 5-3-0
๐ฉ๐ช Bayern 5-2-0
๐ฉ๐ช Dortmund 5-2-0
โ Two perfect records gone this weekend:
๐ช๐ธ Barcelona (9-0-0), 1-2 v Real Madrid
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Manchester City (7-0-0), 1-2 at Aston Villa
No unbeaten team left in ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England, ๐ช๐ธ Spain or ๐ซ๐ท France.
๐ Full team-level projections and scenarios available in our app on football-md.com
Projected ๐ต UCL Q1 seedings for the summer.
๐ฐ๐ฟ Ordabasy and ๐ซ๐ด NSI Runavik confirm their spots on the unseeded side.
๐ท๐ธ Crvena zvezda
๐ฎ๐ช Shamrock Rovers
...currently projected to skip Q1 and climb directly to Q2 via UCL title-holder rebalancing.
๐ Full preview for 2027/28 UEFA qualifiers available at football-md.com/qualifier-prโฆ
๐ฎ๐น Serie A biggest probability shifts after MD8:
๐ Risers:
-11% Genoa - Relegation (34% โ 24%)
+9% Como - Top 4 (56% โ 65%)
+8% Como - Top 5 (70% โ 78%)
+8% Bologna - Top 8 (16% โ 24%)
+7% Como - Top 6 (80% โ 87%)
๐ Fallers:
-10% Atalanta - Top 7 (38% โ 28%)
-10% Atalanta - Top 8 (50% โ 41%)
-9% Atalanta - Top 6 (26% โ 17%)
-7% Cagliari - Top 8 (23% โ 16%)
-7% Atalanta - Top 5 (17% โ 10%)
โ
Still perfect in Europe's top flights, as of 26 Oct.
โ 4 perfect runs ended this weekend:
๐ช๐ธ Barcelona (9-0-0), 1-2 v Real Madrid
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Man City (7-0-0), 1-2 at Aston Villa
๐ฆ๐ฉ FC Santa Coloma (5-0-0), 1-1 v Inter Escaldes
๐ธ๐ฒ Tre Penne (5-0-0), 0-0 v Tre Fiori
Only 3 teams have won every league match:
โ
๐ต๐น Porto 9-0-0
โ
๐ธ๐ฒ Folgore 6-0-0
โ
๐ฌ๐ฎ St Joseph's 6-0-0
๐ต๐น Porto lead the way, 9 wins from 9!
El Clรกsico win turned the trend Real Madrid were on in the title race!
๐ 1st place probabilities:
62% ๐ช๐ธ Barcelona (-21%)
30% ๐ช๐ธ Real Madrid (+18%)
8% ๐ช๐ธ Atlรฉtico Madrid (+3%)
...
Barcelona ๐ช๐ฆ went 11-0-0 in first 11 matches of the season and now they lost two in five days!
๐ PAOK with another defeat, falling behind the Top 3 teams...
๐ 1st place probabilities:
41% ๐ฌ๐ท Olympiacos (+2%)
29% ๐ฌ๐ท AEK (+1%)
26% ๐ฌ๐ท Panathinaikos (+2%)
3% ๐ฌ๐ท PAOK (-5%)
1% ๐ฌ๐ท Aris
...
๐จ๐ญ Lugano's season looks like a rocket launched to space ๐!
10-1-0 after 11 rounds.
Killing it in Conference League!
๐ 1st place probabilities:
76% ๐จ๐ญ Lugano (+2%)
17% ๐จ๐ญ Young Boys (+1%)
6% ๐จ๐ญ Sion (-1%)
1% ๐จ๐ญ St. Gallen (-2%)
1% ๐จ๐ญ Servette FC
๐ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com/simulator
On Thursday ๐ธ๐ช Hammarby host ๐ธ๐ช Sirius and have a chance to cut the distance to only 3 points!
[๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ Premier League - Top 5]
๐ Aston Villa and Liverpool the biggest winners of the round
๐ Brighton and Chelsea lose the most ground
[๐ฆ๐น Bundesliga]
Salzburg with a big away win at champions LASK!
Austria Wien now 90% to play in the Relegation group (Bottom 6).
๐ 1st place probabilities:
44% ๐ฆ๐น RB Salzburg (+11%)
34% ๐ฆ๐น Rapid Wien (+3%)
13% ๐ฆ๐น LASK (-10%)
9% ๐ฆ๐น Sturm Graz (-4%)
[๐ต๐ฑ Ekstraklasa]
Lech wins the big game in Warsaw v Legia and boosts their favorite status!
Rakรณw still at the bottom after 12 rounds...
๐ 1st place probabilities:
61% ๐ต๐ฑ Lech Poznaล (+14%)
23% ๐ต๐ฑ Gรณrnik Zabrze (-7%)
7% ๐ต๐ฑ Legia Warsaw (-7%)
6% ๐ต๐ฑ Pogoล Szczecin
2% ๐ต๐ฑ Wisla Krakow
๐ Full analysis of probabilities and scenarios for 225+ competitions available at football-md.com/simulator















