Director @MisgavINSen. Fellow @Heritage. Get all the news from Israel in just 10 minutes every day! Sign up: https://xitter.cf/t.co/4bYd0BV21g
Joined June 2019
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I told Congress: After October 7, we need to look reality straight in the face.
We would like to live in warm peace with our Palestinian neighbors.
But we have to recognize reality- according to the best Palestinian polling, 53% of Palestinians think Hamas' decision to launch the Oct. 7 terror attack was correct.
And Hamas remains the most popular Palestinian party by far.
This is not an issue of Israeli "trauma".
It is an Israeli refusal to go back to the pre-Oct. 7 paradigm of ignoring hard realities - even in the face of pressure from our friends.
@HouseForeignGOP @RepMikeLawler
The majority of the Israeli Jewish public has become more hawkish, realist, traditional, and nationalist following October 7.
Not all. But the majority has moved.
Many observers have been surprised by the election outcome because a significant percentage of Israeli English-language news sites, popular podcasters and X commentators (not all but many) allow their anti-Bibi political views to color their analysis and presentations.
The same is of course true in Hebrew, but there the political biases are more clearly recognized.
תחילתה של הצעה למניעת סבב בחירות נוסף:
ייתכן שנתניהו ואיזנקוט (וסמוטריץ׳, ליברמן ובנט) יוכלו להתאחד סביב סדר היום הבא לטווח הקצר:
1. חיסול חמאס בעזה.
2. יצירת התנאים לשינוי המשטר באיראן.
3. הפסקת ההטבות והתקציבים הממשלתיים למי שאינם משרתים, ותגמול למי שכן משרתים, לצד שילוב החרדים בשוק העבודה.
4. דרישה לדה-רדיקליזציה אמיתית, פירוז ורפורמות הן בעזה והן ברשות הפלסטינית, כתנאי מקדים לכל צעד ישראלי נוסף.
5. מאבק בפשיעה ובהיעדר המשילות, במיוחד, אך לא רק, בחברה הערבית.
6. הקמת ועדת חקירה באופן שיבטיח שמסקנותיה יזכו לאמון ציבורי רחב.
7. קידום העצמאות הביטחונית-תעשייתית של ישראל, המשך חיזוק המשק ופתיחתו לתחרות, שיפור מערכת החינוך והתחבורה, והפיכת ישראל למובילה עולמית בתחום הבינה המלאכותית וטכנולוגיות מתפתחות נוספות.
ייתכן שהצדדים יוכלו להסכים מראש על קיום בחירות בעוד כשנה וחצי עד שנתיים.
איזנקוט יצטרך להחליט שישיבה עם נתניהו עדיפה על סבב בחירות נוסף, או על ניסיון להסתמך על מפלגות ערביות הרואות בחמאס גורם לגיטימי. נתניהו, מצדו, יצטרך להיפרד מבעלי בריתו החרדים, אולי באופן בלתי הפיך.
כל צד יוכל לטעון להשגת הישגים חשובים לקראת הבחירות הבאות.
אמנם זה יהיה רחוק מפתרון מושלם. סוגיות חשובות מאוד לעתידה של ישראל כנראה יצטרכו להמתין.
אבל זה עדיף על עוד מערכת בחירות.
הסיכויים להסדר כזה אמנם נמוכים. אבל שווה לנסות.
דעתכם?
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
The votes from IDF soldiers, which will take time to count, will almost certainly strengthen the Right.
The only reason Channel 12 still maintains significant influence on Israeli public opinion is @AmitSegal.
The increase in the number of options and channels, including @i24NEWS_HE and Channel 16, is a very good thing.
It appears that @i24NEWS_HE and @C14_news were substantially more accurate in the polls.
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
The beginnings of a proposal for avoiding another round of elections:
Eisenkot and Netanyahu could likely unite around the following short-term agenda:
1. Eliminate Hamas in Gaza.
2. Create the conditions for regime change in Iran.
3. End state benefits and budgets for those who don't serve, and reward those who do serve, while integrating the ultra-Orthodox into the workforce.
4. Demand true deradicalization, demilitarization, and reform in both Gaza and the PA as preconditions for any further Israeli concessions.
5. Combat crime and lawlessness, particularly, but not only, in the Arab sector.
6. Set up a commission of inquiry in such a manner that its results will be widely accepted.
7. Advance Israel's defense-industrial autonomy, further strengthen and open up its economy, and ensure it becomes a world leader in AI and other emerging technologies.
Perhaps the two sides could agree on elections in 1–1.5 years from now. Perhaps they could put a moratorium both on steps to advance judicial reform and on the appointment of new Supreme Court justices until those elections are held.
The Eisenkot bloc would have to decide that sitting with Netanyahu is preferable to another round of elections or trying to rely on Arab parties that see Hamas as legitimate. Netanyahu would have to break, perhaps irreversibly, with his traditional allies.
While this would be far from perfect, it would be better than another election cycle.
The chances of such an arrangement are obviously low, but it could be worth fighting for.
Thoughts?
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
🚨 Two million Arab citizens of the Jewish State of Israel vote today.
Israel is so terrible in doing apartheid.
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
If I was in Eisenkot's shoes the vote I’d be thinking about is the first budget.
Arab-party abstentions might get him sworn in. But those same parties would likely later vote with Netanyahu’s bloc to block Eisenkot's budget. If no budget passes, Israel goes back to elections.
That gives parties outside the government enormous leverage over a sitting prime minister, without sharing cabinet responsibility. Eisenkot could find himself weighing a necessary military operation against the risk of losing the votes he needs for his budget. That is a miserable position from which to run a country.
Eisenkot should prioritize negotiating a government with Netanyahu and Smotrich. There would be difficult compromises there too. But he should be using his leverage now to secure an agreement on how to govern, before finding himself in the PMO negotiating the price of keeping Bibi out.
Two takeaways based on exit polls:
First, neither camp has a a clear path to forming a coalition. That leaves us with a simple but unavoidable conclusion: for Israel to have a government in the coming weeks, someone is going to have to break a campaign promise. It could be Eisenkot deciding to form a government with the support of Ra’am, the Arab party led by Mansour Abbas. It could be Bennett, Liberman or even Eisenkot deciding to cross the partisan line and join a government with Netanyahu.
The second takeaway is that a decisive majority of Israelis are opposed to Netanyahu and want to see him out of office. Based on projections, approximately 70 seats voted for parties - Jewish and Arab - committed to ousting Netanyahu.
That does not mean all 70 support Eisenkot or that they can necessarily sit together in one government. But it does mean that Netanyahu and his coalition have lost the support of a majority of the electorate.
The beginnings of a proposal for avoiding another round of elections:
Eisenkot and Netanyahu could likely unite around the following short-term agenda:
1. Eliminate Hamas in Gaza.
2. Create the conditions for regime change in Iran.
3. End state benefits and budgets for those who don't serve, and reward those who do serve, while integrating the ultra-Orthodox into the workforce.
4. Demand true deradicalization, demilitarization, and reform in both Gaza and the PA as preconditions for any further Israeli concessions.
5. Combat crime and lawlessness, particularly, but not only, in the Arab sector.
6. Set up a commission of inquiry in such a manner that its results will be widely accepted.
7. Advance Israel's defense-industrial autonomy, further strengthen and open up its economy, and ensure it becomes a world leader in AI and other emerging technologies.
Perhaps the two sides could agree on elections in 1–1.5 years from now. Perhaps they could put a moratorium both on steps to advance judicial reform and on the appointment of new Supreme Court justices until those elections are held.
The Eisenkot bloc would have to decide that sitting with Netanyahu is preferable to another round of elections or trying to rely on Arab parties that see Hamas as legitimate. Netanyahu would have to break, perhaps irreversibly, with his traditional allies.
While this would be far from perfect, it would be better than another election cycle.
The chances of such an arrangement are obviously low, but it could be worth fighting for.
Thoughts?
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
Spent many hours today talking with the kids who manned the Smotrich booths outside the polling stations. I don't think it is impossible.
Important to point out that it is not at all clear that a majority of Jewish voters rejected Netanyahu.
It is likely going to be very close between the Netanyahu and Eisenkot coalitions in terms of Jewish voters.
The Arab parties are very far from Eisenkot on security issues. They don’t see Hamas as a terrorist organization that needs to be destroyed.
Two takeaways based on exit polls:
First, neither camp has a a clear path to forming a coalition. That leaves us with a simple but unavoidable conclusion: for Israel to have a government in the coming weeks, someone is going to have to break a campaign promise. It could be Eisenkot deciding to form a government with the support of Ra’am, the Arab party led by Mansour Abbas. It could be Bennett, Liberman or even Eisenkot deciding to cross the partisan line and join a government with Netanyahu.
The second takeaway is that a decisive majority of Israelis are opposed to Netanyahu and want to see him out of office. Based on projections, approximately 70 seats voted for parties - Jewish and Arab - committed to ousting Netanyahu.
That does not mean all 70 support Eisenkot or that they can necessarily sit together in one government. But it does mean that Netanyahu and his coalition have lost the support of a majority of the electorate.
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
Israel is the only country in the Middle East where Muslim men and women can freely vote on who represents them.
Remember that Liberman was the reason we ended up in five election cycles back in 2019-2020.
He will likely be the decisive voice in the question of whether we head to another election cycle once again.
Asher Fredman אשר פרדמן retweeted
ISRAEL ELECTION: Most beautiful moment of the elections - numerous ISRAELI HOSTAGES saved from Hamas in Gaza, get to exercise their democratic rights TO VOTE after SURVIVING darkness,terror, violence,abuse-some for 2 years.
A critical question to understand the political developments in the coming weeks- which parties fear most the results of a second election campaign?
Listening to @meridors on @i24NEWS_HE, it sounds like Eisenkot is going to make a major effort to bring Smotrich or parts of the Likud into a Yashar-led coalition.
Unlikely to happen.
Very impressive turnout and electoral achievement for Israel’s Arab parties.
They will give Eisenkot control of the Knesset.
But will Eisenkot rely on them to establish a government, given their opposition to the fight against Hamas and other problematic positions?
If not, we may well have another election.
Looks like I was right about this
Prediction: Given that Eisenkot will likely get the first opportunity to form a government, the most important political question will be whether Liberman keeps his promise not to join a government that relies on the Arab parties for its majority.
If so, we may well have another election.
If not, Eisenkot will be able to form a government, that will last 6-12 months.
Not saying good or bad, just that this is the most likely scenario.