Sports + Startups | Former Florida Gator Golf
Joined April 2020
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If it takes 10,000 hours to achieve excellence:
• 1 year: 27 hrs/day
• 2 years: 14 hrs
• 3 years: 9 hrs
• 5 years: 5.5 hrs
• 10 years: 2.7 hrs
The only way to 10,000 hours?
"If they fall in love with it" - Rick Celebrini, Performance Coach Golden State Warriors, Macklin Celebrini's Dad
Mike Furci retweeted
Elon Musk on why his companies move faster than anyone else.
"I'm constantly addressing the limiting factor. Whatever the limiting factor is on speed, I'm going to tackle that. If capital is the limiting factor, I'll solve for capital. If it's not the limiting factor, I'll solve for something else."
He then said something most managers never figure out:
"If something is going really well and making good progress, there's no point in me spending time on it.The irony is if something's going really well, they don't see much of me. But if something is the limiting factor, they'll see a lot of me."
He spends his time entirely on whatever is blocking the next step. Not on what's interesting or what he's best at. But on whatever is the bottleneck right now.
Most leaders do the opposite... They gravitate toward what they're comfortable with and away from the hard problem.
Mike Furci retweeted
Cliff Sosin on the limits of intelligence:
"Superintelligence arrived. You probably didn't notice, because it turned out to be kind of incremental.
I think we overrated intelligence, or misread what it is.
We hold a thin scatter of facts about the world, and intelligence or reasoning is whatever fills the space between them.
Where the space between the facts behaves well, this is close to godlike. Most of what matters doesn't behave like that.
The universe is mostly the emergent behavior of complex systems. Stir cream into coffee. Watch a storm build out of nothing but atmospheric temperature differences and water vapor.
You have to run the thing.
The takeoff story assumed the limit was thinking. It isn't. The limit is contact with reality.
A smarter reasoner fills the gaps between known facts in simple areas faster and better, but it doesn’t produce new facts.
An AI will hand you a genuinely clever design for a jet turbine blade. It might be far more likely to work than anything your engineers came up with.
It'll still probably fail, because that’s the base rate at the edge of what anyone knows. The only way to find out is to build the blade and try to break it.
That's the real limit on learning, and it doesn't care how smart you are. Coming up with ideas was never the hard part. The hard part is how fast reality answers them.
Most problems can't be worked out at a desk by thinking. Those stay bound by how fast we can build the thing and see if it holds, and that clock barely moves."
From his essay "Maybe Intelligence Ain't All That." He walks through it here.
Cliff Sosin (@CliffordSosin) is one of my favorite people to call, ask some big questions, and then shut up and listen.
This conversation is a version of one of those calls.
We discuss:
- The limits of intelligence
- Owning the complements to it
- Meta, the frontier labs, and the AI build-out
- Capital markets
- Why he's comfortable with 80% of his portfolio in Carvana.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
10:41 The Limits of Intelligence
18:03 Investing Beyond Cheap Intelligence
24:03 Will AI Become Commoditized?
35:10 Who Profits From AI?
43:00 AI Agents Reshape Competition
52:06 America's Capital Markets
58:04 Transforming Companies With AI
68:19 AI and Portfolio Concentration
73:16 Education in the AI Era
Mike Furci retweeted
HERE'S THE ANTHROPIC MODEL: Anthropic will go public at $2T in Oct '26 and will be a $1T ARR company and $10T+ company Dec' 2030 as the winner of AI.
Here's how Anthropic gets to $1T ARR in 2030:
- 2026E: $125B ARR +14x YoY w/ 5 GW live
- 2027E: $266B ARR + 114% YoY w/ 10 GW live
- 2028E: $462B ARR +73% YoY w/ 16 GW live
- 2029E: $700B ARR +52% YoY w/ 23 GW live
- 2030E: $1T ARR + 42% YoY w/ 30 GW live
I'm dropping my full Excel model modeling out:
- ARR by business model (e.g Consumer, B2B, Enterprise, API)
- API business broken down by model type (e.g Fable 5.1, Mythos, Opus, Sonnet)
- Training costs and inference cost as a % of revenue
- Gross Margin ($ ARR per MW and Cost of Compute per MW) as well as forecasting GW secured.
- Net ARR (vs Gross ARR reported by trackers) removing marketplace pay out, Meta, Chinese AI labs
- and more
I also share the @artemis thesis for WHY Anthropic is the AWS of AI and winner of AI in the enterprise (and open source and ANT / OpenAI can win)
Get the full model here: artemis.ai/anthropic-thesis
Full Disclosure: I don't have inside information. I took what's publicly available from the July '26 @SemiAnalysis_ model and added my own judgement based on public information and my own world views. I've spent a life time modeling as a former HF and VC analyst. I'll update the model as soon as the S-1 drops.
Mike Furci retweeted
Introducing: Artemis Analyst
I learned from the best investors at @whalerock and @insightpartners.
Today we productize all the learnings I had as an analyst to help make AI investing accessible to ALL.
We connected Fable 5 with 12+ proprietary data sources: 3,000+ equities, consensus estimates, crypto fundamentals, ETF flows, tokenization, prediction markets, and stablecoins.
A top investor told us “after using Artemis Analyst 3x, I’m hooked”
Questions you can answer and create charts for:
> What is EV / NTM revenue for high growth SaaS ✅
> What is Anthropic vs OpenAI ARR? ✅
> What is the prediction market share of $HOOD Rothera during the World Cup ✅
> Build me a $HYPE model ✅
It’s still in beta and free in July.
It’s what I wanted when I was an analyst at Whale Rock / Insight, packed with skills and data so I can focus on the fun part of investing: creating thesis and making calls.
Use the Artemis Analyst today :)
Mike Furci retweeted
GSP says he lives by something called the 24 hour rule: 8 sleep. 8 work. 8 for the people you love
"There are 24 hours in a day. I learned you need to separate your day into three parts: 8 hours sleep, 8 hours work, 8 hours for the people you love"
"Before, I never did this. I was always mixing everything up, eating with my family while I was on the phone, bringing my training problems home, bringing my home problems to the gym. The stress took over. I didn't have time to sleep"
"A friend taught me to compartmentalize, one part doesn't flow into the other. Of course sometimes work takes more and sleep less, but generally you need the time off. Otherwise you'll eventually go crazy"
"When I started doing this, it changed everything. It created balance"
Mike Furci retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: 3000+ equities and crypto:
1) financials (GAAP & non-GAAP)
2) earnings transcripts
3) IR presentations
4) analyst estimates
All in ONE place. Works with all your favorite AI agents
Get access now: form.typeform.com/to/xMhIvSG…
🤖 Made with AI
Mike Furci retweeted
Coinbase is the winner of AI-native finance.
We believe $COIN can be a ~$300B+ company (6x from today)
Artemis open sources the BEST Coinbase financial model using onchain data.
You can now build models like the BEST analysts.
We believe Coinbase is WINNING in stablecoins, agentic commerce – not just as a crypto exchange.
Here’s the core assumptions
> Stablecoin supply reaches ~$3T in 2031 (~US Treasury official estimates)
> USDC is 30% of stablecoin supply
> Agentic Commerce ~$7.5T in yearly spend in 2031
> Coinbase Agentic Commerce is able to monetize and captures 1bp of the entire TAM
> Net transaction revenue grows 11% CAGR
> Subscription & Services goes from 40% of total revenue to 65% of revenue in 2031
In our bull case, Coinbase does ~$23B revenue in 2031 with ~$10B of net income.
At 30x PE that assumes ~$300B of marketcap (6x+ from today)
Full 12 page thesis drops at 5pm ET 👀
Novak Djokovic on Discipline
“How much discipline? In January 2012, I beat Nadal in the finals of the Australian Open. The match lasted five hours and fifty-three minutes — the longest match in Australian Open history, and the longest Grand Slam singles final in the Open Era. Many commentators have called that match the single greatest tennis match of all time.
After I won, I sat in the locker room in Melbourne. I wanted one thing: to taste chocolate. I hadn’t tasted it since the summer of 2010. Miljan brought me a candy bar. I broke off one square — one tiny square — and popped it into my mouth, let it melt on my tongue. That was all I would allow myself.
That is what it has taken to get to number one.”
Mike Furci retweeted
BREAKING: The AI trade may not be about chips.
It may be about power.
The US faces a projected ~50 GW data center power deficit through 2028.
Bitcoin miners like IREN, Core Scientific, TeraWulf, and others represent both the fastest and the cheapest way to bring power online.
These may be AI infrastructure companies hiding in plain sight.
Read the full thesis from @Modular_Capital, here: artemis.ai/artemis/article/3…
10 BTC miners pivoting to AI infrastructure.
The cheapest trades at $3M per MW. The most expensive trades at $10M.
We published our memo and live comps with @artemis to standardize the comparison.
Comps: research.modularcapital.xyz/…
Memo: research.modularcapital.xyz/…
Demand for AI is accelerating and power is the bottleneck. BTC miner conversion represents both the fastest and the cheapest way to bring power online.
But the data is messy. Disclosures differ across operators and prices are volatile with 10-30% short interest.
We've created a live dashboard to frame the opportunity and compare operators on the metrics that matter.
--
LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as investment advice. This post is not a recommendation for any security or investment. Please see full post on Modular site for all disclaimers, sources, and supporting material
Mike Furci retweeted
New: Golf participation outside the U.S. & Mexico rose to 112.2 million people in 2025.
The R&A reports 4.2 million more adults & juniors played some form of golf worldwide last year than in 2024.
The 2025 U.S. participation number was 48.1M, per the National Golf Foundation.
Mike Furci retweeted
What looks like a lack of motivation is often just a bloated feedback loop. When the gap between effort and result is too wide, the brain stops wanting to play. Tighten the loop, shrink the task, and watch the motivation return.
Mike Furci retweeted
Jensen Huang just reverse-engineered why Elon Musk operates at a speed no one on the planet can match.
Three traits.
The first is deletion.
Huang: “He has the ability to question everything to the point where everything’s down to its minimal amount.”
Most engineers solve problems by adding.
Musk solves them by subtracting.
Every part. Every process. Every assumption that survived because no one had the nerve to kill it.
He picks it up. Asks if it’s load-bearing. If the answer is anything less than absolutely, it is gone.
Not simplified. Not optimized. Removed.
What survives is the skeleton. The bare physics of the problem. Nothing between intent and execution.
Huang said it plainly.
As minimalist as you could possibly imagine.
And he does it at system scale.
Not at a product level. Not at a department level.
Across entire companies. Entire industries. Entire supply chains.
He strips a rocket the same way he strips a meeting. Down to the load-bearing walls and nothing else.
The second is presence.
Huang: “He is present at the point of action. If there’s a problem, he’ll just go there and show me the problem.”
Not a Slack message. Not a report filtered through four layers of people who weren’t there when it broke.
He walks to the failure. Stands over it. Puts his hands on it.
Most executives have never seen the actual problem their company is trying to solve.
They have seen slides about it.
Read summaries of it.
Formed opinions about it in rooms that are nowhere near it.
Musk stands over the broken hardware and does not leave until it works.
That collapses the distance that buries most organizations.
The gap between something breaking and the person with authority to fix it actually understanding what broke.
In most companies, that gap is weeks.
For Musk, it is hours.
The third is the one that bends everyone around him.
Huang: “When you act personally with so much urgency, it causes everybody else to act with urgency.”
Every supplier has a hundred customers. Every vendor has a dozen priorities. Every manufacturer has a backlog stretching months into the future.
Musk makes himself the top of every single one of those lists.
Not by demanding it. By demonstrating it.
When the CEO shows up at your facility at midnight. When he is moving faster than your own internal team. When his timeline makes yours look like a suggestion.
You do not put him in the queue. You rearrange the queue around him.
Huang watched this up close.
Huang: “He does that by demonstrating.”
Not by asking. Not by negotiating. Not by leveraging a contract clause.
By moving so fast that everyone else’s normal pace feels like standing still.
Three traits. Strip everything down. Show up at the failure. Move so fast the world rearranges around you.
That is not a management philosophy.
That is why one man runs six companies while entire boards cannot keep one moving.
Build vs Buy is no longer the whole question.
Now it’s: build, buy, or wait.
With the pace of AI, the roadmap can only focus on what stays scarce as models improve: distribution, proprietary data, and trust.
Everything else is increasingly at risk of commoditizing fast.
