Barry Gilbert retweeted
More than 50% of the S&P 500 hit a new 20-day high.
This matters, as 55% is a buying thrust and it has never been lower a year later.
Of course, is this time different with defensive areas leading?
Nice work from @granthawkridge
Barry Gilbert retweeted
Watch what they do, not what they say 🤔
AAII sentiment on the bearish side but stock allocation close to two decade highs
Stock allocation is at 71.8%. Not seen since tail end of dot-com bubble with the exception of a brief spike in Dec 2017
@RyanDetrick @CarsonResearch
Barry Gilbert retweeted
Here's our latest Glass Half Full video on AI or Bust 🤖 📉
@sonusvarghese
youtu.be/3P-uTB62bgw?is=2k01…
Barry Gilbert retweeted
The Agg’s starting yield has been a good guide to its return over the next 8 years, landing within 1 point of it 75% of the time.
Today, the Agg yields 5.45%, and T-bills yield about 4.2%. If you hold both for 8 years, that compounds to 52% vs. 39%.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
2022 was a perfect storm. Yields started extremely low, an unusually strong catalyst pushed them up, and the 10-year’s rise was the largest on record.
The Agg’s three losing years before 2021 all started with higher yields. The worst, 1994, was -2.9%.
Source: FRED
Barry Gilbert retweeted
The Agg is down 1.7% this year and could post only its sixth losing year since 1976. Its deepest drop this year is 4.6%, vs. a 3.5% average.
2022’s 13% loss was the worst on record, and about the size of the S&P 500’s average intra-year drawdown of 14.3%.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
The Agg fell 3.5% in Q3, its worst quarter since 2022, and bond fears returned. @gilbert3142 calls it bond derangement syndrome and argues that 2022 is the wrong year to anchor on.
🧵
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
Barry Gilbert retweeted
Socialism 🤔
According to the new @CatoInstitute Government Ownership Dashboard, the Trump admin has done 35 equity-stake deals since last June. Prior to that, US equity deals were unheard of in non-crisis times.
You can dig into each one here: cato.org/restoring-free-ente… #CatoRFE @Cato_RFE
Barry Gilbert retweeted
We do a Morning Call each Monday with our Advisors and I'm putting it together now. This slide stood out.
Here's a check in on how sentiment is going with stocks at all-time highs and nominal GDP growth pushing 8%.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
Since 2019, the S&P 500 is up 168%.
137% of that has come from earnings growth and 26% from dividends. Virtually none (ok 5%) has come from multiple expansion.
We hear this market is 'overvalued' but when you look at it like this, I don't think so.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
Labor supply is low, with immigration down sharply. Breakeven job growth is only about 25,000 a month.
The 3-month average is 51,000. And the survey's 90% confidence interval is about ±120,000, so negative months like July come with the territory.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
With $SPCX looking to raise $40b to buy $NVDA chips, it looks like the AI capex wave is completely insensitive to rates
So should the Fed even bother raising rates, hurting non-AI sectors?
Turns out this same debate was raging in 1999 👇
Great piece from @bencasselman (h/t @colbysmith):
AI capex may shrug off higher rates: expected returns are high, while power, chips & permits are the real constraints.
So the Fed squeeze hits elsewhere (housing, autos + low-income consumers)
A familiar 1999 story 🧵
@ryandetrick @CarsonResearch
nytimes.com/2026/10/05/busin…
Barry Gilbert retweeted
For a White House that promised tariffs would “fix” the U.S. trade deficit, today’s news that the gap widened again is more proof that the president’s tariff experiment isn’t working, says Cato Institute’s @scottlincicome.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
S&P 500 hits new all-time high despite the 10y at 5.28 🙌
How?!
Activity is strong but prices are rising amid the AI capex boom - as PMIs showed. And strong nominal growth is boosting stocks (tech) & yields.
New blog 👇
@RyanDetrick @CarsonResearch
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
Barry Gilbert retweeted
All year @sonusvarghese has said we are in a period of inflationary growth. Higher yields, higher inflation, a solid economy, and another strong year for stocks. Playing out well so far.
Here is what he sees now 👇👇
S&P 500 hits new all-time high despite the 10y at 5.28 🙌
How?!
Activity is strong but prices are rising amid the AI capex boom - as PMIs showed. And strong nominal growth is boosting stocks (tech) & yields.
New blog 👇
@RyanDetrick @CarsonResearch
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
Barry Gilbert retweeted
10s up more than 50 basis points in a month sounds rare, but it's starting to become commonplace.
Last seen in January 2025, and before that, throughout 2022-2023
Barry Gilbert retweeted
Wrote this a month ago 👇
Since then
10-yr: +56 bps to 5.21
30-yr: +33bps to 5.50
Honestly didn't think yields would rise as fast as they did, but none of this is shocking ...
We've said all year this would be a year of inflationary growth, meaning a solid economy and stock market, but weak bonds and higher yields.
What if rates should still be higher? @sonusvarghese discusses it in our latest @CarsonResearch blog.
carsongroup.com/insights/blo…
Barry Gilbert retweeted
I've always been under the impression you can play games with earnings.
But you know what you can't do that with? Revenue.
As great as the 1990s were, revenue this decade is running twice that rate (7.5% vs 3.7%). 💪 📈
Barry Gilbert retweeted
It has been 4.5 years since the last Fed hiking cycle started. Likely a new one starts tomorrow.
Barry Gilbert retweeted
"This time is different. The four most dangerous words." Sir John Templeton
The US SPR had 415 million barrels of oil at the start of March. It is down to 286 million now, the lowest since the early 1980s.
Tapping into this is a big reason why prices aren't $200/barrel.
As the conflict continues, the reserves just aren't there.
