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the screets
Joined May 2020
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thomas ⚡️ retweeted
It becomes incredibly obvious when you grew up poor and no longer have to worry about money today, that most of your physical and mental health issues were actually directly and indirectly caused by constant financial stress.
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
hearing some chatter that anthropic is now lowering down to $1tn to get this IPO done. let me explain why this doesnt matter and its actually all over-
the entire existence of this company is based on a funding model that inherently has extreme asset liability mismatch. what that means is that just like the hyperscalers are diluting their equity fund capex, there is an expectation that anthropic will also have to do the same. ie it needs strong equity to perpetuate the scheme
but if you IPO at the wrong price (and dont get a pop which increasingly appears they wont be; spacex already below) then youre now in the death spiral that crypto investors should be very familiar with: its called the reflexivity trap of the confidence game. its the "ill bid FTT at $22 all day" or the "steady lads UST is $1" game, with all its lucid horrors. and here is the key insight- the confidence game exists at the service of the creditors. if there is no credit, there is simply no equity. and there is no credit, if there is no collateral
if the credit rating agencies are not going to give IG at $2tn, they are certaintly not going a better HY rating at $1tn. and there is no world in which anthropic can exist without credit because ~$1tn of commit, much of which is noncancellable, is a straight up negative equity pledge
yet there were two scenarios in which i was willing to concede anthropic could IPO: first 1) the improbable but possible was if the hyperscalers/chips oligopoly came to rescue and plug the hole, given their incestuous nature of revenue bookings and paper gains/losses at scale. but it is clear now that the market has spoken this will lead to a mutual death, and should not be attempted. or perversely even better, they are actually better off letting anthropic go to zero so they can acquire the pieces on the cheap which is the best nash equilibrium outcome, not just for the dominant player but for society at large. second 2) the us government can nationalize the company and collude with other sovereigns (like UAE, Saudi, Japan who are basically already the checks) to force its funding as a collective bargain. this gives you trillions, which is actually the most effective backstop to restore market confidence. the first edge case does require an IPO, but the second edge case here for which i believe there is still a good chance that this is the ultimate end game- will require a failed IPO to recapitalize at a normalized price for the consortium (and dont forget that openai front ran this investor group in anticipation of this dynamic to play out as a private co last month)
i believe the market is crapping out today because the market is recognizing it will not IPO. and actually, as ive said before, this is a very good thing. i might even imagine that the market could quickly rebound on the news of its IPO being delayed because it allows #2) to play out, as not only a national, but an international bailout. the US is more likely to tolerate, even relish, the taxes of foreginers to fund our domestic companies. that is the only end game that really matters, and the end game i am going to be excited to see
we'll see if this newly revamped washington can figure it out
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
Piers Morgan: "Are you looking at me with a straight face and saying you don't know if Israel has nuclear weapons?"
Blaise Misztal: "No, I don't know for a fact whether it does or not."
Morgan: "You're lying to me! Aren't you? You're just lying."
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
On today's stock market crash:
As an investor, on days like today, you have to ask yourself one question: What fundamentally changed over the last 24 hours?
The shift in the fundamental backdrop cannot be attributed solely to the Midterm Election results; markets had already largely priced in the outcome.
So, what changed between yesterday and today? What is the fundamental reason for today's decline?
One of the most likely catalysts is growing concern about a potential "ban" on AI, or at the very least, severe regulation of the industry.
Over the last 24 hours, Democratic lawmakers have publicly called for restrictions on advanced AI development, including an outright "ban on artificial superintelligence."
Frankly, an outright ban will not happen.
Such a ban, if even possible to enforce, would effectively mean the US surrendering its position in the global AI race to China.
Does this mean AI is "over" or today's stock market crash marks "the end?" Absolutely not.
Rather, we believe we are witnessing a sudden shift in sentiment colliding with excessive levels of leverage, potentially triggering forced liquidations by several major institutional investors.
Therefore, today's downturn is more technical than fundamental. This is not to discount the concerns around regulation, they are legitimate. But price action right now does not look orderly or rational.
We are in the midst of the biggest technological revolution in human history.
Zoom out and remain calm.
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
Model III: How Musk and the Trump Admin Saved Rosneft's Refinery by Pinning a U.S.-Operated NATO Satellite With Russian Origins While Shutting Down Ukraine's Air Defense $SPCX $TSLA
In Models I and II, @streetwiseprof and I proved SpaceX (N = 1, 99.9% probability) held U.S.-operated NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 still for a Russian space weapon (COSMOS 2612). Today, Model III proves what that pin actually did on the ground, why Russia hunted this specific satellite, and how one orbit links Russian oil to the Persian Gulf:
1. The Synchronized Squeeze & The Ryazan Trigger: After the Oct 9 Putin-Trump call (>300,000t Russian diesel waiver), Musk's Oct 13-14 Starshield speed cap cut Ukrainian air-defense hits by 23%. Because long-range refinery drones fly on pre-programmed autonomy guided by ICEYE-X36 radar rather than live Starlink links, Ukrainian drones still struck Rosneft's flagship 349 kb/d Ryazan refinery on Oct 15 AM.
2. Shutting Down the BDA Loop (+122,150 bbl/d Restored): Hours after the Ryazan strike, SpaceX's false 401m Starlink alert froze ICEYE-X36 (-96.64% dodge drop) while COSMOS 2612 sprinted in and held at 640m for 40 hours. Blinding X36 shut down the BDA loop: follow-on refinery restrikes plunged 76.2%, and Ryazan recovered 3.28x faster (t = -8.29), restoring +122.15 kb/d of Russian refining capacity and protecting $10.3M-$85.3M in stake-weighted margin for Rosneft's 19.5% owner QIA (which joined ICEYE's >EUR 550M Series F secondary buyout 8 weeks earlier).
3. Why Russia Hunted X36 & Why Redundancy Failed: Russia chased X36 for 5 months because ICEYE launched four early hulls (X4-X7) on Russian military rockets at Vostochny and Plesetsk (the exact base that launched COSMOS 2612) and uses 27 shared Stellar battery units. Russia had the 2020 blueprints and needed a 40-hour close hold (+57.90 dB) to bridge the 2024 U.S. hull. Although 6 rival U.S. SAR satellites (Capella/Umbra) flew over Ryazan on Oct 15, zero restrikes occurred because they lacked automated HUR/Maven pipeline integration and Title 50 shutter clearance.
4. One 16-Minute Orbit From Russia to the Gulf & Diego Garcia: COSMOS 2612 is now parked 66-99 seconds (-502 km) behind X36 on the descending track that flies from Ryazan/Kyiv (~08:02 UTC) to the Strait of Hormuz and Prince Sultan Air Base in 6.4-8.2 minutes (a 4.8-7.1 minute conditional geometry lead) and the U.S. Navy's VLS reload hub at Diego Garcia in 16.6 minutes.
(Full 3-page institutional brief and downloadable PDF in reply below. Model IV drops next.)
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
it's really impressive how bad Elon is at politics
it's actually hard to be as actively toxic as he is to those he allies with
the grand effect of his politicking has been to sully his reputation, sink Republicans in the midterms, and RUIN Tech + AI in the eyes of the public
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
They do not. You are so totally misinformed that it’s embarrassing. Here’s the full breakdown. We just built three models on this and our fourth is running.
Pete Hegseth and Pentagon CTO Emil Michael structured $8.8B+ in Contractor Owned, Contractor Operated (COCO) and OTA contracts ($2.29B SDN, $4.16B Golden Dome, $1.8B+ NRO Starshield):
1. Taxpayers pay to build the constellation, while Musk keeps 100% ownership of the satellites, Stargaze tracking data, and commercial Terms of Service kill switches.
2. On Jan 9, 2026, Emil Michael cashed out $5M to $25M in xAI (OGE-2025-297, after selling $2M to $10M in SpaceX funds M8/M6 while keeping his LLC shells open), took over CDAO/Maven 72 hours later (Jan 12), watched SpaceX buy xAI (Feb 2), and purged rival Anthropic in 2 hours (Mar 2, vacated in Dkt. 250) claiming "a vendor cannot come between a commander and their superior."
3. On Oct 2, Hegseth and Michael named Musk Co-Director of the Pentagon's "Future of War" (Project Meridian).
4. Yet after Musk throttled Ukraine (Oct 13 to 14) and pinned ICEYE-X36 for Russia's COSMOS 2612 (Oct 15 to 18), Hegseth went on TV on Oct 20 and ceded military command to SpaceX's Terms of Service: "Starlink has the option to make those decisions. Because it's a commercial entity, we cannot direct them."
Reclaiming sovereign military command over $8.8B+ in taxpayer-funded infrastructure isn't "authoritarian retribution." It is undoing a contract giveaway engineered by conflicted Pentagon leadership. / Don’t make statements you know nothing about.
FINAL: SpaceX Blocked A U.S. And NATO Satellite to Assist a Russian Intercept After Crippling Ukraine's Air Defenses
New 5-page institutional brief & 60s 3D SGP4 orbital reconstruction with Craig Pirrong, Ph.D. @streetwiseprof | Data & Forensics: RAB @LibertyLynx
Pages 1-3 & 3D animation below; Pages 4-5 in Post 2; full 5-page PDF link in Post 3 🧵👇
As Craig Pirrong's counterfactual framework establishes: The Russian intercept is not the smoking gun. The failure to maneuver is.
1. The Sprinting Satellite Paradox & -96.64% Target Freeze (Page 1): Between Oct 13 and 24, 2026, Russian counterspace weapon COSMOS 2612 (68762) converted a 5-month, ~170 m/s co-planar trailing option into a 0.759 km sub-kilometer hold against U.S.-licensed radar satellite ICEYE-X36 (59103), which guides Ukraine's autonomous deep strikes on Russian oil refineries without SpaceX links, at the exact moment SpaceX throttled Ukrainian military Starshield terminals (-23.0% USF air-defense hits).
In June 2026 (with no Starlink alert), ICEYE-X36 defeated a Russian approach by dropping 0.500 km, generating 71.08 km/day secular drift (3.62 km/h in the sprint frame), exiting Russia's 3.0 km braking box in 49.7 to 60.78 minutes, blowing past Russia's 12 km or under onboard KTZ sensor in 3.31 hours, and causing a 103.7 to 118.5 km miss.
In October, as COSMOS 2612 fired a -2.2184 km (370.8x perched shock / 449.1x fit jump) burn to sprint 14.29x faster (400 km/day / 278 m/min), ICEYE-X36's evasion collapsed by 96.64% (to 16.8154 meters or less, P3 = 3.363%).
* Why? The Alert Itself Was the Weapon: SpaceX maintained a 0.401 km (0.711 km Oct 16) public GP collision alert via STARLINK-35856 (67013) despite holding internal v3/v4 forecasts 4.80x to 5.00x wider (1.925 to 2.003 km) and withholding autonomous Starlink clearance (M_Starlink = 0, W_X36 = 1, W_COSMOS = 0), legally freezing X36 under David Goldman's 2023 FCC Condition 16 (DA 23-797).
* Rational Russian exercise across a 363.7 km blind gap required ex-ante certainty of K = (E1, E2, E3). Across all 5 capability levers, SpaceX is the sole actor (N = 1): Posterior = 99.893% to 99.978% (Tier A floor; 1 in 3,748 to 17,841) and up to 99.999% (Tier B K-set).
2. Four-Way Tracker Blindness & What NRO/USSF Saw Live (Page 2):
* Public Catalogs (18th/19th SDS): Blind for 21.824 hours (363.7 km unobserved closure) on sprint (k6 to k7) and 19.385 hours on brake (k9 to k10, -382.71 km SGP4 delta).
* Russian Ground Radars (SKKP Krona/Okno): Bounded by Earth curvature at 541 km to a 22.8 degree (2,530 km) horizon cone, blind for 8 to 10 hours/day (80% to 94.5% of the orbit) with zero Americas/Pacific coverage.
* The Sole Unblinded Commercial Panopticon: Only SpaceX's Stargaze (31,000 star trackers, 40M+ daily tracks, 17M associated, 850 sightings/day, 7 to 15 min global custody / 99.73% 10-min hit rate) and sub-1-minute Space Safety portal (Appendix A & Section 4(b), with Chinese operators onboarded Oct 6 & 16) had real-time visibility across the blind gap, while NRO & USSF watch floors watched live on the classified High Accuracy Catalog (HAC / Space Fence / Vantor WorldView NEI), realizing 348 Starshield satellites in orbit (245 NRO spy satellites) sit on the same SpaceX bus.
3. Contracted Capacity Is Not Combat Availability & The 6-Way C2 Collapse (Page 3):
* Combat Output = Sensor Availability x Link Availability x Platform Availability x Permission Arriving Before Mission Window Closes (T_permission <= T_mission).
* The Two-Pronged Pincer: SpaceX weaponized FCC Condition 16 to freeze the Sensor Layer in orbit and a Commercial ToS ($500 liability cap) to blind the Transport Layer on the ground.
* 70-90 km/h Civilian Baseline vs. 4 Collapsed Alibis: Civilian Starlink in Ukraine was already capped at 70 to 90 km/h since Feb 2026 (S. Beskrestnov). The Oct 13-24 101 to 161 km/h gate hit DoD-contracted military Starshield links (-23.0% USF hits; Oct 19 Nova Vodolaha strike). Musk cycled through 4 contradicting alibis in 12 days (blaming DoD/POTUS Oct 14 -> ToS offensive loophole Oct 24 -> "sympathy for poor Russian conscripts" Oct 25 -> Russian ASAT/debris fear Oct 26), while resolving the exact same "weapon ToS" objection on U.S. LUCAS suicide drones in Iran via a 5x price hike ($5,000 to $25,000/mo)!
* COCO vs. GOGO ($8.8B+ Sign-Off Chain): Under Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO/OTA) deals signed off by Pete Hegseth, Stephen Feinberg, CTO Emil Michael, Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, Gen. Michael Guetlein, Col. Ryan Frazier, Clare Hopper & NRO's Dr. Chris Scolese, taxpayers fund the satellites while SpaceX's civilian NOC retains 100% of the physical thruster and velocity kill-switches.
(Continued in Post 2: Pages 4 & 5: Statutory Breach Matrix, CTO Emil Michael's $7M-$35M OGE Clock, the $19.5B SpaceX Bailout Loop, Iran Round Two Magazine Depletion & Subpoena Schedule. Full PDF link in Post 3 👇) $SPCX $TSLA
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
We need to thank @ZelenskyyUa for bombing those Russian data centers. Seriously, doing that helped the US elections immensely. You'll all find out in the future why that is. Volodymyr Zelenskyy restored US election integrity and democracy.
Thank you Mr. Zelenskyy
#Anonymous
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
IMO this quote tweet from Mamdani is the most succint representation of why this blue wave just happened.
-JD vance takes credit for nyc achievements with incorrect data and gets 10k likes.
-Mamdani post a simple video alluding to the lack of actual impact the admin had on these outcomes and gets 2 MILLION likes.
This has now been viewed by 68 million people. Global instability is scary right now, but I remain hopeful for the future.
Yeah Jon Ossoff going to be president in 2028. Charisma, intelligence, youth, won Georgia handily, works hard for both republican + democratic constituents and integrity (so far at least).
thomas ⚡️ retweeted
🚨SCOOP: House Democrats are discussing plans to expand the Crypto Investor and Consumer Bill of Rights, @RepMaxineWaters’ amendment to the Clarity Act in 2025, into a broader crypto “market structure” bill next Congress.
The proposal would fold in Democratic Clarity Act provisions originally offered by Waters in the House (which were not adopted), as well as provisions Senate Democrats were able to agree to with Republicans before the September cloture vote, according to three industry sources who have spoken with Democratic staffers.
Some of the proposals under discussion are said to include giving the @SECGov more of a role in supervising the crypto markets, and a more limited role for the @CFTC. Additionally, it’s likely that further ethics provisions will be offered to restrict the crypto activities of President Trump and other federal officials.
Republicans are calling this a “messaging bill.”