Among the biggest polling busts in 2020 was a Quinnipiac poll from that September which had Senator Collins down by 12 points to Sarah Gideon (who was a far, far stronger candidate than Troy Jackson). The final polling average that year was Gideon by 3.8%. @SenatorCollins won by 8.6%. The difference between the final polling average and the result was approximately 12.4%. So Maine is a very difficult state to poll. Senator Collins is a formidable political opponent —b/c she is a terrific senator blessed with intellect and an incredible work ethic. Joe Manchin labelled her the “soul of the Senate” when the Democrat from West Virginia stumped for her yesterday. The respect for her 10,000 consecutive roll call votes in the Senate is immense. Her work ethic is that of the state: Wholly committed to her job. And as pointed out on @SpecialReport, she is the most powerful woman inside the Beltway and uses that power which comes from the combination of seniority and respect to do everything for Maine. Even when the perfect opponent —and Sarah Gideon was close to that— had an enormous financial advantage (Gideon spent $64.1 million and Collins spent 29.2 million) Gideon still got blown out. Because Mainers are more private than, say, New Yorkers? Who knows. But we do know Collins runs through the tape and has every six years. People betting against her on the predictions markets are not very bright.