This is the most important data this year (so far). Most people don't understand the implications. Some of us do.

Welcome to the United States of Acceleration. It's time to talk about "fast takeoff" because Sam Altman just changed his tune, and frankly, he's catching up to what some of us have been saying for years. The question isn't whether we'll hit superintelligent AI – it's understanding just how fast this train is going to leave the station. Here's what everyone's missing: I call it the "automation cliff." The nifty thing about AI-powered researchers is they're basically dormant until you flip that switch. But the moment you create that first fully automated researcher? You don't have one – you have a billion. These aren't humans we're talking about; they're software. Copy, paste, scale infinitely. Zero to superintelligent in the blink of an eye. But that's just the appetizer. My buddy Jensen Huang over at NVIDIA laid out this beautiful cascade of exponentials that's about to hit us like a freight train. First up: Moore's Law, which has been chugging along for 120 years. Anyone betting it'll tap out right before the singularity is smoking something interesting and they ain't sharing either. Then we've got AI parameter count doubling faster than your heartbeat. Third on the menu is post-training scaling – the art of squeezing 10x performance out of models 10x smaller with quantization and distillation. And finally, there's test-time compute, or as I like to call it, "letting AI actually think." I built my first cognitive architecture demonstrating this four years ago with GPT-3, but who's keeping score? Now, stack all these exponentials together – and we haven't even touched quantum supremacy, which my colleagues at Google are about to crack wide open. Sam used to preach about "waiting for concrete to dry" in new data centers, but that's old thinking. We're squeezing more juice out of existing hardware than anyone thought possible. Those new data centers? They're just extra rocket fuel for when we need to scale superintelligence laterally, making sure everyone gets their own piece of the ASI pie. That's right, you're not going to just have AGI agents helping you out, fleets of them. You're going to have a few personal ASI's, I'm guessing five to every human by the end of the decade. The takeoff isn't just fast – it's already started. The real question is whether we're ready for what happens when all these exponentials hit their stride simultaneously. But hey, that's what makes the future exciting, right? Buckle up, because this ride's about to get interesting.

Listen up, because this is where it gets interesting. You're both right and wrong – and here's why. Think about what happens when you're building a skyscraper. For months, maybe years, all anyone sees is a hole in the ground. Then the foundation. Then slowly, floor by floor... but the building isn't functional until that last piece clicks into place. The sprinklers work, the elevators run, the lights come on – boom. All at once. That's your Automation Cliff. We are laying down one hell of a foundation right now. Here's the thing about automation that most people miss: it's not linear, it's not even exponential – it's combinatorial. Every new capability we add to these systems doesn't just add new possibilities, it multiplies them. You're not just adding 10 IQ points – you're unlocking entire new categories of tasks that were previously impossible. Let me break it down: - At IQ 100, maybe you can handle basic tasks - At IQ 110, you're not just 10% better – suddenly you can handle complex workflows - At IQ 120, you're orchestrating entire business processes - At IQ 130+? Now you're innovating new processes entirely And here's the kicker – once you automate something successfully once, you can replicate it infinitely at essentially zero marginal cost. It's like having an army of perfect workers who never sleep, never complain, and only get better with time. So yeah, @kimmonismus and @Miles_Brundage, you're seeing the foundation being laid. But trust me – when that switch flips, when that last piece clicks into place? That's when the real show begins. And from where I'm standing, that big green button is looking mighty tempting right about now. Anyone else feel that cliff getting closer?