ALT US COVID-19 heat map dated 19 October 2026, produced by the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC), using CDC wastewater data last updated 10 October. - Outbreaks: At least 44 US states and territories experiencing COVID-19 outbreaks. - Western US: Widespread very high activity, particularly California, Oregon, Washington and neighbouring states. - Southeast: Extensive high to very high activity across Florida, Georgia, Alabama and the Carolinas. - Northeast: Numerous high-activity areas, particularly along the Atlantic coast. - Midwest: Mixed activity, ranging from very low to very high. - Estimated infectious prevalence: Very low: below 0.9%; Low: 1.2%; Moderate: 2.0%; High: 2.9%; Very high: above 3.5%. - Trend: PMC reports an apparent secondary peak following upward CDC data revisions. - Map colours: Pale blue, green, orange, red and purple indicate increasing activity levels.
ALT Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) National COVID-19 Estimates for the United States, dated 19 October 2026, showing modelled infections, Long COVID cases and excess deaths. - Actively infectious: 1 in 57 Americans (1.7%). - New daily infections: 858,000. - Infections in the past week: 6.16 million. - Total infections in 2026: 151 million. - Cumulative infections per person: 5.61. - Estimated Long COVID cases from daily infections: 43,000–172,000. - Estimated Long COVID cases from weekly infections: 308,000–1.23 million. - Estimated excess deaths resulting from daily infections: 210–370. - Estimated excess deaths resulting from weekly infections: 1,500–2,600. All figures are PMC model estimates, not confirmed case counts. Source: PMC COVID-19 Model, pmc19.com, 19 October 2026.
ALT Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates, 19 October 2026, showing estimated infectious prevalence and transmission risk across 25 US states and territories. - Highest prevalence: Mississippi 6.3% (1 in 16), Florida 5.2% (1 in 19), Hawaii 4.8% (1 in 21) and California 4.7% (1 in 21). - Other high estimates: Georgia 3.9%, Connecticut 3.6%, Maryland 3.5%, Guam 4.3%, Kentucky 3.3% and Delaware 3.2%. - Lowest prevalence: Arizona and Minnesota 0.5%, Michigan 0.8%, Indiana 0.8%, Illinois and Iowa 0.9%. - Room transmission risk: In Mississippi, estimated probability of at least one infectious person is 48% in a room of 10, 81% in 25, 96% in 50 and over 99% in 100. - CDC classifications: Standard and revised levels shown side by side. - Note: CDC categories were revised downwards in August 2026. Some states have limited data. All figures are model estimates, not confirmed infections.
ALT Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) COVID-19 State Prevalence Estimates, 19 October 2026, showing estimated infectious prevalence and transmission risk across 27 US states and territories. - Highest prevalence: Oregon 6.7% (1 in 15), Washington 6.0% (1 in 17), US Virgin Islands 5.3% (1 in 19) and Puerto Rico 4.8% (1 in 21). - Other high estimates: Tennessee 4.4%, Montana and South Carolina 3.6%, North Carolina 3.1% and New Jersey 2.8%. - Lowest prevalence: New York, Ohio and Wyoming 0.5%, Oklahoma 0.5% and West Virginia 0.6%. - Room transmission risk: In Oregon, estimated probability of at least one infectious person is 50% in a room of 10, 82% in 25, 97% in 50 and over 99% in 100. - CDC classifications: Standard and revised levels shown side by side. - Note: CDC categories were revised downwards in August 2026. Some states have limited reporting. All figures are model estimates, not confirmed infections.
ALT FRED, US BLS data
ALT States with observed outbreaks include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai’i, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming. Additional states with poor monitoring likely have outbreaks based on high levels in bordering counties in adjacent states.
ALT States with observed outbreaks include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai’i, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wyoming. Additional states with poor monitoring likely have outbreaks based on high levels in bordering counties in adjacent states.
ALT Flyer: Masked 5K, Oct 18, TCC Wave Makers 5K I will wear an additional N95 for every $50 donated. Support cancer research, normalize masking, and help set an informal world record. Additional N95s will be fashioned into a cape or other accessory, individually-wrapped N95s to eventually be used, not wasted. All donations final; if I cannot compete due to weather or injury, I will reschedule an event in the spirit of the run. Funds support cancer research, and I will not apply for those funds to avoid financial conflicts of interest. Last year’s 5K supported metastatic breast cancer research.
ALT The US has at least 34 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks. These include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai'i, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia. Levels on the Big Island of Hawai’i are particularly high. Note also, the NYC area is seeing outbreaks. There are likely outbreaks in additional states. The summary statistic of 40 only includes counties with observed data, rather than estimated data. For example, Idaho, Louisiana, Maryland, and Tennessee likely have outbreaks, but monitoring is poor.
ALT We have posted this report 48 hours early in light of increased transmission. The US has 15 states/territories with COVlD outbreaks, characterized by one or multiple counties at high to very high levels. The largest waves are in California, Texas, Alaska, Hawai’i, and Guam. Washington, Nevada, Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky, and Florida are experiencing regional outbreaks. Finally, there are isolated hot spots in north central Utah (Summit/Wasatch), north central Illinois (Boone/DeKalb), central North Carolina (Cabarrus), and northwest Connecticut (Litchfield). There are major reporting irregularities in Texas. Of the 19 sites online this week, 3 (16%) reported with high/very high levels. Of the 20 Texas sites offline this week that have reported data for last week, 18 (90%) report high/very high levels, with 16 (80%) reporting very high levels. The reason why high and very high sites are disproportionately offline this week is unknown.
