also on bluesky-editor, russia matters project, the belfer center for science & international affairs, harvard kennedy school

cambridge, massachusetts
Joined January 2009
ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
It's been 4 days since I posted. What did I miss? 😂💀 Talked Flock and the funding of the surveillance state yesterday with @realstewpeters, so check it out if you haven't. Below is the money map and it shows why the money flow and who funds what is so important when looking at the privatization of the America's surveillance state. One more company I need to add/look at is Thrive Capital, Josh Kushner's firm. The one that led the $5B funding round into Anduril in 2026 👀
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
“Disgusted? Not by the pedophilia, the abuse, the mother who proffered her own children as sacrifices to her lover? No, JD wasn’t “disgusted” by any of that. He was “disgusted” by Republicans who wanted no part in Vivek Ramaswamy’s lies.” open.substack.com/pub/thebul…
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
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🌏 Different perspectives make stronger public leaders. Applications for the Master of Public Policy are open until 2 December 2026. Start your application today 👇 ow.ly/Gsk150ZNojy
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
One Russian paper today concludes that the war in Ukraine has reached “a fork in the road: either real peace talks on the entire range of issues, or the next level of escalation.” What the Russian press is saying about the prospects for peace. #ReadingRussia
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NEW: The Kremlin's seeming interest in negotiations aims not to end the war in Ukraine but rather to secure economic concessions from the United States such that Russia can continue funding its war. Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin is fundamentally interested only in buying time to resolve the war on the battlefield while Russia simultaneously reaps the benefits of economic cooperation with the United States. Russian forces are not winning on the battlefield, however, particularly as Ukrainian forces have stymied the planned Russian offensive to seize Donetsk Oblast. The Kremlin is likely actively seeking economic cooperation with the United States as Russia faces significant financial strain. Russian forces conducted a massive missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on October 21 to 22 following the October 21 meeting between Witkoff and Putin- a continuation of Russia’s pattern of launching large strike packages in the days before and after major peace talks. Russian forces struck Kyiv City with cluster munitions to purposely harm the civilian population, likely as part of wider Russian efforts to distract from Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes and ultimately force Ukraine into capitulation by making daily life untenable. Ukrainian forces recently advanced south of Vovchansk and in southern Kostyantynivka. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets on October 21 and overnight on October 21 to 22.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Kremlin-affiliated outlets continue to circulate claims that US investigators have uncovered links between Ukraine’s Armed Forces and Mexican drug cartels. In reality, no US agency has made such claims or published any such findings. The false allegation originates with Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Abe Newman joined me on Deep Dish this week to talk about America's weaponization of the global economy, sanctions on Russia, China's rare earths, export controls, and Russia's frozen assets. China and Europe are catching on. Great to talk with him. @ANewman_forward globalaffairs.org/commentary…
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Cool! My article on ‘preventing births’ within the South Africa v. Israel genocide case has been included in the most recent @CIJ_ICJ Bibliography. I argue the case provides an opportunity to conceptualize gendered violence against men & boys as reproductive violence.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Trump is lying again. Putin started the war and has repeatedly refused to negotiate to end it. The US spent nothing like $350 billion. Half the money is not missing. Washington and Moscow are both significantly more corrupt than Kyiv. Putin, not Zelensky, is a dictator who openly steals elections.
And not a word about Putin, who started this bloody war and is killing Ukrainians. Trump is Putin's friend, as he himself says.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
So many of you asked me to look into ClipIt, the company paying people by the view to post political clips. I did, and it connects to Israel’s $55.5 million American campaign, Trump’s former campaign manager, Turning Point and the operatives working for the Speaker of the House. A few highlights are below, and the full article with receipts is up on Substack now (link in bio, and it’s free). (1) The man who runs ClipIt goes by “Matt Servius” online and has never been publicly named. Wyoming and Latvian records point to Matīss Tabūns, a 23-year-old in Talsi, Latvia, who formed ClipIt’s American company on May 28, 2025, with a one-dollar stake. (2) Fourteen days later, on June 11, Brad Parscale formed Clock Tower X. It went on to register as Israel’s foreign agent. (3) ClipIt’s own records label a campaign “Political” for December 14 to 21, the week of AmericaFest. In those same days, Clock Tower X took in $6 million from Israel. (4) ClipIt’s campaigns kept Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson out of their clips. Israel’s campaign websites attacked both of them by name. (5) Israel’s campaign made its own clip titled “Charlie Kirk,” and its contract appears written to collect repost rights to content made by outside influencers. (6) Everyone keeps asking who paid. ClipIt paid its clippers from a $20 million crypto wallet that traces back to Stripe’s stablecoin system, and one clipper thanked the boss for his “Political Payout of December.” That means an American company has the name of whoever ordered the political payouts, and that record can be subpoenaed. (7) ClipIt rewrote its terms the day before The Atlantic’s story ran. Then it changed its founding year and blocked visitors from the United States. (8) Israel’s campaign sent $4.4 million for “media placement” to a firm run by Mike Shields. His other firm has been paid $2.98 million by Speaker Mike Johnson’s campaign. (9) Parscale’s Israel firm uses the same Ohio office suite as his company’s White House contract. (10) Turning Point denies working with ClipIt. But, it has paid Jake Hoffman’s firms millions a year, and Hoffman ran Turning Point’s 2020 teen troll farm. The attack operation on X reeks of Jake Hoffman's troll famrs Enjoy the article!
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it's a terrific series on several counts, cf. HBO's The Wire re. urban crime (not to mention also, insurgency and counterinsurgency).
Andor (@DisneyPlus) gives us a shared case study for walking through how an #insurgency actually develops. 🧵Over two seasons, the Rebellion moves from latent activity and early organization into guerrilla actions and then toward open war of movement. Students can track the same decisions and consequences while considering doctrine alongside it. smallwarsjournal.com/2026/10…
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
In other words, before we negotiate, we need to handover to Russia as much of the leverage we have over them as possible…
NEW: The US has proposed that European countries unfreeze some Russian sovereign assets immobilised after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and transfer them to a vehicle overseen by Washington in an attempt to revive peace talks. w/ @HenryJFoy @paolatamma @ak_mack ft.com/content/54353d3a-afed…
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"Three years into this operation, some of these investigations should have been concluded." Professor @JaninaDill is quoted in BBC Verify's latest on the IDF's investigations into killings.👇 ow.ly/kigf50ZXUGF
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thanks @anneapplebaum! most Americans seem to think #Putin will accept something less than the complete annihilation of everything #Ukrainian. any "peace" deal w Putin would only be an intake of breath before the next assault
If Putin stops fighting, the war ends. If Zelensky stops fighting then his country will be occupied, leaders murdered, language banned, businesses stolen, children kidnapped. That's what happens in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
The ‘Russia is not the enemy‘ campaign is an example of FIMI aimed at shaping European perceptions of Moscow. By presenting Russia as peaceful and misunderstood, it seeks to downplay the threat of Russian hybrid operations and undermine public awareness of sabotage, cyberattacks and other hostile activities documented across Europe.
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what hurts most is that #Trump's reversal doesn't evacuate the taint. it's the equivalent of a judge saying "the jury will disregard." on top of that, a tiny infraction from a woman in Trump's orbit is punished, but men like #Hegseth (signal gate, #Iran, streaming) get a pass
Trump's decision to halt the live streaming of a killing by firing squad of Nidal Hasan was too slow to come, but predictable. His own party, the American people, and the military have a far greater sense of morality than the leaders who proposed this and were willing to move ahead.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
A new era of warfare has begun—one in which “weaker states are no longer priced out of the military power game” and “stronger states are not guaranteed the upper hand in major battles,” writes @mchorowitz. foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-…
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The US decision to grant Russia a waiver to export diesel also represents a unilateral US concession in its negotiation posture with Russia, when Russia has offered the US no concessions in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. ⬇️
Key Takeaway: The US’ decision to allow Russia to supply diesel to the global markets, including to the United States, will support the Kremlin’s efforts to stonewall US efforts to end the war, as the profits from diesel exports will enable Russia to continue funding its war in Ukraine. The US decision to grant Russia a waiver to export diesel also represents a unilateral US concession in its negotiation posture with Russia, when Russia has offered the US no concessions in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
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ivan arreguín-toft retweeted
Make no mistake: U.S. institutional sanctions against the ICC threaten not only the independence of the Court, but also the sovereignty of all member states. These states have voluntarily accepted the legal obligation to cooperate with the Court, which the U.S. seeks to disrupt.
US allies including Britain, France, Germany, Canada and Japan joined the UN in condemning new US sanctions on the International Criminal Court, warning they threaten international justice. Israel welcomed the move. 🔗 aje.news/830stq
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