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Is this a bullish or bearish signal, historically speaking? It’s generally been bullish. Let me explain. I had Claude pull the highest S&P 500 put inflow days over the last 20 years, then grab the average daily put volume for each of those dates over the prior 12 months. I divided the volume on each high-volume day by that trailing average so the data is normalized across different market environments and time periods. For every one of those days, I then looked at the lowest S&P close over the following 3 months and measured the further drop from the high-volume day to that low (i.e., were the put buyers right, and by how much?). The result is this scatterplot: X-axis is the put volume multiple vs the trailing average, Y-axis is the further decline to the 3-month low. A point on the 0% line means that high-volume put day was the market bottom. Orange dots are the ones like Friday: high put volume days when the S&P was still within 5% of its highs. Gray dots are high put volume days when the index was already further off its highs. The bands are obviously wide, but based on where Friday sits historically, the extreme put volume doesn’t look like a particularly concerning signal. Looking further, what would your average return be if you went long the S&P 500 on each of these high put volume dates and sold 3 months later? 5.1%. And that moves up to 6.3% when the S&P 500 is within 5% of its ATH like Friday. Meanwhile, if you were to buy the S&P 500 on any random day over the last 20 years and hold for 3 months, your average return would’ve been 2.94%. This is materially lower than the 5.1% on high put volume days or 6.3% on high put volume days near index ATHs. This means that buying the S&P 500 index on days like Friday have historically resulted in over 2x the average expected 3-month returns. This was helpful and interesting to me so I thought I’d share. I hope others find it useful as well!

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