jbt

Tomorrows Veterans Day - expect lower volume barring a headline ES Overnight 11/10 7642 Upside Target (Reversion) 7571 Upside Pivot (LAAF or Extension) 7557 Pivot 7509 Downside Pivot (F/R) 7461 Downside Target (Reversion) Enjoy

$TLT $RKT Rate decline tables over the past 5 years isolated by 10, 15,20, 25% declines from peak to trough by duration. Orange is our current 10Y decline from 10/07. I have a few rate sensitive positions ($RKT and $XLU) and wanted to visualize how the rate declines have gone to see how it compares. Obviously each situation is different, but still.... Note - the series with sharp moves higher on rates after declines are in 2022. Just a cool graphic I created in @ConvexValue CVForge.

$SPY $QQQ Interesting higher lows under March 30th AVWAP on ES; Almost tagged 10/10 AVWAP on NQ Market Data from @ConvexValue -Volatility expectations (Term structure) towards the top of it's range into the election ;yellow = today, red = yesterday -Overnight Straddle is 67 giving us a range of [7514, 7646] - Spreads are your friend today -Morning Straddle is 44 from 7540 this AM -Weekly straddle (143 pts) is [7436, 7723] -ON Volumes are 30% above average- 30% more put volume than calls; 7600 calls and 7500puts Net Exposure (SPX) from @OptionsDepth -Pivot is 7535 -Upside Targets are 7550, 7570, 7596, 7605, 7615, 7630, 7660 -Downside Targets are 7520, 7495, 7475, 7450, 7435, Thoughts -Upside Pivot 7658 ES (7630 SPX); Downside Pivot 7530 ES (7500 SPX) -VIX positioning is very bifurcated for the next two weeks- monitoring this intraday

Bit of a view on ES overnight 7705 is my pivot. Eyeing a reaction around Asia. Look above and fail is what I’m eyeballing… perfect scenario is ~7711 and lose 7705. Ultimate target if we get follow through is 7675 give or take. Earnings season is off to a bang!!

$SPY $SPX $QQQ Just some thoughts on the day.... I really didn't trade cash that well but had a good day (including GLOBEX) on futures regardless. Yesterday I had a view that the CPI breakdown ~ 7770 would likely a short but opted out of doing much because of $META earnings AH. When the earnings first came out, I was like I'm glad I didn't short the market; the situation changed minutes before futures open as META had gone from ~747 to sub 730 (approximate) so I chased a short at globex open (with the intent to add on pops). My intraday view (posted earlier) - I missed the open but the opening 15M high and the subsequent LAAF was a great short opportunity (I got back as this was happening and hadn't really seen the market). From that ..... market fell ~50 and has been stuck at my "Downside Pivot" at 7657. The RV shock level is 7652 - I'm torn on if this actually triggers today... As to what happens after an RV shock.... There's the table of dates and the ensuing T+7 FWD price action.... is there a pattern? I'd argue maybe at T+3 to T+4 Bottom line - It's ok to miss the bottom tick, wait for higher lows especially if we start to "V" on a headline.