🐧 Educational market commentary, thesis breakdowns, watchlists. My substack: https://xitter.cf/t.co/0W5O6Llyib No personalized financial advice.

Joined September 2025
I just started a Substack! You can subscribe to it here tropicalpenguin.substack.com…
8
2,374
Tropical Penguin retweeted
$DUOT - LD Micro pres provided some interesting news/insights. Good time to update priors esp with the pullback. Will walk through takeaways (both positive and negative). TLDR: business outlook improving with longer-dated, better counterparty contracts (20MW CSP deal for 2Q27 deployment signed). High visibility into securing another 100MW of capacity to deploy for publicly traded CSP’s and hyperscalers. Georgia AI cluster already partially running/generating revenue. Proving ability to deploy MW for AI DC’s at fast pace. Stock trading at a discount to tangible book value(!!), no upside baked in for future deployments. The big question is getting debt financing, and at what rate. Getting financing is the unlock for the stock IMO, along with continuing to book these 10 year leases with large public companies Positives - 10yr 20MW deal with a mature publicly traded cloud service provider for >$400mm is a great step. 10yr term is a nice upgrade from 5yr, and the CSP customer is a material step up beyond AGPU. Could be one of the hyperscalers, but more likely AKAM, IBM, ORCL, etc. just based on not calling it a hyperscaler. FWIW they called the contract value ~$450mm-$460mm in the Q&A. More of these would be highly preferred over more AGPU biz. More diverse tenant base makes a more attractive biz/takeout target. - Columbus GA cluster is live and revenue generating. they said 7 MW is live and billing right now. Based on disclosure in the new deck, we should see hosting revs from this flow through in 3Q. Proof of execution will show up in PnL when they report in November. - Doug said they just signed a 4MW contract deploying in Roberta, Georgia with a "well backed neocloud" customer. That seems like a new announcement to me. - Under contract/in active negotiations for 100MW of additional powered, data center-zoned land across multiple US sites. Of that, ~25MW is currently under contract across multiple sites in the US, and DUOT is in active negotiations on an additional 75 MW. Expects to finalize all site agreements by year-end. Should have a solid deployment road map after these deals are signed. - They are very focused on raising debt at the project level instead of issuing equity going forward. Longer duration contracts with strong counter parties should help that. Saying 50-70% LTV is how to think about the raise but most debt now is all based on customer contract. Using rough math of ~$120mm cost for Columbus, could mean ~$60mm of capital raised via debt to use as equity in future projects (probably AGPU JV). Even at 12.5% rate and 5yr amort, the site cash flow could cover the debt service. Interested to see if they try to raise debt on the 20MW CSP ahead of deployment to fund construction. Questions/Concerns - Doug says Technology Solutions business has done ~$30mm YTD. Business did ~$3.8mm through 1H26. Did they really do ~$26mm of sales here in 3Q, or is he talking about the backlog #? Is this all flowing through in 2026? - Doug says margin in Technology Solutions is 12-15%. is that an EBITDA margin figure? Business did ~23% gross margin in 1H26 - What ROI/unit economics should we be modeling to? Previous HPC colo example had 75% "contribution margin" that included operating expenses of ~$1.5mm/MW. The new slides imply ~45% site EBITDA margin with ~$1mm/MW. What is driving such a big delta here? This is one of the most important things, and they really aren't being clear on it. - The new unit economics slide says 3 year payback period, but the ~$1mm/MW EBITDA would imply 6 year payback period. They clarify in Q&A saying the bigger deployments have a longer payback but the small 4MW ones are 3 years. One has extremely good returns, one is just in line with the average powered shell provider. What drives them to accept longer payback period? - Of this 100MW of land under negotiation, how much is for unannounced deployments vs. matching announced deployments with land?
2
6
259
Definitely an overreaction by now. This *could* be a buy opportunity at some point. But people saying that Lula is actually good for Brazilian stocks are way off mark. The most important thing is that Brazilian congress went sharply right.
I was kicking myself for not starting a position in EWZ few weeks ago but in hindsight I was lucky. There is a reason why I never invest in Brazil (I am originally from Brazil). It is not a safe environment for investing, and it will never be.
1
1
144
But don't assume the Congress will play their usual role. Brazil is a very strange place and politics is volatile. I would be careful buying the dip now, but gun to my head, I think this is an overreaction. Stay safe! NFA DYOR
1
40
I was kicking myself for not starting a position in EWZ few weeks ago but in hindsight I was lucky. There is a reason why I never invest in Brazil (I am originally from Brazil). It is not a safe environment for investing, and it will never be.
1
1
229
Tropical Penguin retweeted
$FTAI PLEASE READ And if you are an actual human thinking being who knows anything about the Aero space tell me where you disagree! THIS IS A NON POWER VALUATION ONLY Current EV is $19B. The Non Power 2027 Guide is $1.85B EBITDA - Aerospace Products: $1.4 billion Aviation Leasing: $450 million Traditional leasing trades for 9-10x... $4B EV AP Multiples- Transdigm 19.0x 45% margins and high value moat Heico 27x 28-30% margins w/ proprietary parts GE 30x 27% margins Howmet 31x 32% nargins AAR 14.5x 12-14% Margins and ariframe heavy so lower value FTAI- I would argue 15x AP is fair and conservative based on margins, growth rate, GE Supply deal, Chromalloy PMA deal for turbine blades and vanes, UAL Long term service deal, growing global presence etc etc So Aero Prod $21B EB There are 100mm shares and 25B EV I AM GIVING ZERO VALUE TO THE POWER BIZ THAT HAS ALREADY SIGNED A $1.5B POWER DEAL = $450mm EBITDA and will do an additional $300MM EBITDA in the near term!
10
5
4
71
13,389
Tropical Penguin retweeted
.@elonmusk said 10GW in 2027 in addition to the 3GW by the end of this year. @SpaceX aiming for 20GW so that the amount of power and cooling is far in excess of what is needed to turn the GPUs on. Where is $SPCX specifically getting 10GW or 20GW of incremental power from? Does $FTAI Power still have capacity or are they sold out?
1
2
1
11
1,625
$SEI moving on $SPCX earnings, makes sense as Solaris has been working with SpacexAI on BTM projects on their hyperscalers. $FTAI is not budging. Was that report that their Mod-1 turbines were going to a $SPCX campus fugazi?
1
2
446
I've been a Duos bull for a while now. Good news on the surface, but we need to know more about the financing cost of this 20MW site. The market is not respecting PSPs economics right now. Duos has ~94M in cash but a large part has been committed to Axes compute 55MW sites.
1
3
266
A few months ago, this news would gap up Duos 20%+ but I am not certain the move sustains tomorrow. Though Duos does not have a large debt load, it will need to incur into debt to build this site, we need to hear more about it in the upcoming earnings.
1
2
89
But this si good news, management is executing well. All it takes is change of sentiment and Duos is off to the races. CF recently reiterated overweight on Duos with PT $24.
1
62
Duos ($DUOT) with the highest upside of the list, by far.
This quoted post is unavailable.
5
601
Nothing revolutionary here but a good reminder that lower yields are a major driver to $ITA returns. An end to the war and an implied fall in short term yields can drive the sector to ATHs.
166
Tropical Penguin retweeted
That’s one of the reasons I own and keep buying $FTAI. Power is the trade for the next 5 years. 10GW+ of compute by end-2027 (or more) doesn’t happen without a lot more electricity, and fast. $FTAI at 7.5x EBITDA still turning CFM56 cores into 25MW aeroderivative turbines that can actually ship in 2027 while the big turbine guys are booked out past 2031. Don’t get blurred by the day-to-day bullshit and the newest HF to blow up...
Maybe more than 10GW
2
4
1
66
8,396
This $AAON mid 70s buying zone goes back as far as Jun 2024. Today it tapped the zone again, and bounced...
197
Some of the names really popped off today. Notably Karman, StandardAero, FTAI. Karman: Morning Star-type bullish reversal, followed by a strong bullish continuation candle on the 4H StandardAero: bullish reversal with follow-through FTAI: bullish engulfing pattern on the 4H
Though still early, $ITA is on track for another bearish candle, that would make 9 weeks in a row--the highest in the series by a mile. I do believe we are seeing a local bottom soon in aero+defense with midterms approaching. Iran conflict is the wildcard.
2
316
Duos trading at 1.39x P/S on 2027 guided revenue. 3.3x P/S on Q4 ARR. 4.6x EV/EBITDA on annualized Q4 numbers. I understand, Duos is a PSP, Nebius is a neocloud though I believe power, land (infra) is the premium asset and pure-plays deserve a valuation lift.
Nebius now trades at just 4x 2027 P/S Growing 100s of % per year btw... $NBIS
1
4
216
The biggest misunderstanding in the AI financial viability story is that many equate Ant/OAI = AI factory ecosystem. People simply do not understand that new, realized spending from other models *grows* the pie. What matters is whether the pie as a whole is growing.
TLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source. Anthropic FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third party data. Roadshow in several weeks will happen after this has been widely confirmed. Unit economics much better than expected given positive FCF with 75% of their compute going to training. All per public reporting.   OpenAI continuing to grow at the same pace per Sarah Friar interview after they took share vs. Anthropic in Q3. Means the sum of Anthropic/OpenAI growth is accelerating from the Q3 pace. OpenAI probably hits FCF positive in the next few months.   Open-source growing much faster than either Anthropic or OpenAI. Modal tripled since May and is 15x YoY per yesterday’s announcement. Open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for the hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens. *Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material.   Third party data pointing to hyperscalers continuing to accelerate in Q3. All report in the next two weeks. Acceleration should continue in Q4 and Q1 as installed base of compute slowly reprices higher closer to spot and new capacity comes online at higher prices. Continued acceleration in hyperscalers should help address external funding concerns.   10 year yield down in a straight line over the last 24 hours.   Some risk of escalation in Iran next few days, but earnings and mid-terms probably outweigh taking an ultra long-term view and looking out 30 days.   Biggest risk imo remains cyber and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer. Fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer are good for everyone else in the ecosystem and for America. Slower for longer is much better than an overbuild and an actual bubble.
1
2
231
As long as a sector is healthy, and growing, there will always be capital ready to take over unprofitable operations. Especially when we are in a token scarce environment.
2
73
At this point, it is just a question of changing narratives. I expect the hyperscalers earnings to shift the narrative to positive again, which will coincide with midterms ending.
28
No. In high beta land, even quality stocks are getting brutalized. Since August, the quality of a company has not mattered if in the wrong sector while rotation happens.
We’ve been telling clients to avoid higher-beta stocks for a few months now. The best returns in higher-beta and lower-quality stocks, and the market for that matter, usually come during rebounds in cyclical macro data, earnings growth, earnings breadth, and earnings expectations. That’s the part of the cycle where outcomes > expectations. That’s taken place over the last 15 months and is largely behind us. Going forward, “quality” metrics (rather than risk metrics) more consistently outperform. Outperforming across the cycle requires a dynamic stock-selection framework.
1
2
540