60% water. Also: VC / Entrepreneur / Volunteer / Tinkerer

Earth
Joined June 2008
The price has yet to be priced in.
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@jdrive retweeted
Dario Amodei was so worried about Y2K that his high school teacher still remembers it decades later. He’s been a doomer for much longer than I thought!
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On my way to the office this morning, I passed a group of young people protesting, a Palestinian flag draped over their shoulders. And I asked myself a question I can't shake: why does this generation always fall into the same trap? No matter the history. No matter the context. Even the ones from wealthy families, who went to the best schools, who were dealt every good card. Always the same trap. I don't think it's stupidity. I think it's a mechanism. And a mechanism can be taken apart, piece by piece. A. The observation: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable. Look at economist Mark Perry's famous chart, the one people call "the chart of the century." It tracks US prices since 2000. At the top, what explodes: hospital services, college tuition, textbooks, childcare, housing. Increases of +100%, +150%, up to +250%, far above general inflation. At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, software, phones, toys, clothing. A TV today costs a fraction of what it did in 2000, for an infinitely better product. Look at what separates the two groups. It isn't technology. It isn't complexity. It's one variable: how much the state is involved. At the top, sectors that are subsidized, regulated, shielded from competition, where the state funds demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, sectors where companies fight every single morning to serve you better and cheaper. B. The mechanism: why it's systematic. When the state subsidizes demand without freeing supply, prices rise. Every time. Guaranteed student loans, and universities raise tuition. Housing aid plus blocked building permits, and rents skyrocket. Administered healthcare, and bureaucracy eats the budget before it ever reaches the patient. In France it's even more vicious, because the price doesn't disappear: it hides. You never see the hospital bill, you pay it through payroll contributions. You never see the cost of school, you pay it through taxes. Public spending at 57% of GDP, one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world, more than €3.4 trillion in debt. And the result? Overflowing ERs, falling PISA scores, young people who can't afford to live in the city where they work. The market didn't fail in these sectors. It was never allowed in. C. Suffering demands a culprit. A 22-year-old lives all of this in their bones. They can't find a place to live. Their degree either buries them in debt or opens no doors. The future feels blocked. That suffering is real, and I don't deny it for a second. But human beings can't stand suffering without a culprit. They need a face. A scapegoat. And this is where everything is decided: who taught them how to read the world? D. Whoever tells the story picks the villain. Schools are public. Universities are public. Culture runs on grants. Film goes through funding committees. Public broadcasting shapes the narratives. The people handing down the interpretive framework are, overwhelmingly, paid by the very system that creates the problem. Do you really think that system is going to name itself as the culprit? No. It names the capitalist. The boss. The landlord. "The rich." The multinational. The commercial West. Same role, same casting, every time. E. One lens, a thousand causes. And this brings me back to that flag. A generation taught to read every situation through a single lens, oppressor on one side, rich, Western, capitalist, oppressed on the other, will apply that lens everywhere. To housing. To climate. To conflicts on the other side of the world. The cause changes, the lens stays. That's why the trap is always the same: it's not the cause that draws them in, it's the way of thinking that was installed in them. F. The perfect inversion. Here's the irony. Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second. It's like blaming the firefighter for the fire because you saw him at the scene. G. The ballot box confirms it. In the US, a few weeks out from the midterms, a large share of urban young voters is getting ready to vote Democrat for more state, more spending, more regulation. New York elected a self-described socialist mayor, carried by young voters, on promises of rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. Rent freezes, the policy that has made housing scarcer everywhere it's been tried. The cure that worsens the disease. In France, it's the same play in two acts. Part of the youth votes for the radical left, which promises more state. Another part votes for the center, which promises to "manage" the state well, and has dug the debt deeper than ever. Two different ballots, one shared assumption: the problem is the market, the solution is the state. H. The way out. These young people aren't stupid. They're right to be angry. They're just aiming at the wrong target. The day they understand that their rent, their tuition and their hospital are expensive precisely because the state runs them, their anger will change direction. They'll stop protesting against those who create. They'll start protesting against those who capture. That day, the greatest intellectual scam of our time will be over.
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@jdrive retweeted
I’ve never seen an ad that turned me against a product quite like this one.
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Every week I read about another giant AI investment, and I keep asking myself how this industry plans to earn a return on the 8 trillion dollars it intends to spend. I use AI all day. I write apps in Xcode with it, I run my companies with AI agents, and Certuma is building an autonomous medical practice on these models. I believe in the technology. I don't believe in the math. I've seen this movie before. In the 90s I built Viatel, the first pan European fiber network. When I sold my shares in 1999 the company was worth 1.2 billion dollars, and everyone was laying submarine cable as if demand would never end. Then came the fiber glut, prices collapsed, and Global Crossing and so many others went bust. The fiber stayed, and it was so cheap that companies like Netflix were built on top of it. The people who paid for the cables never saw the returns they expected. AI looks the same to me. For most tasks there's a ceiling on how good a model needs to be. Once it writes my Swift code correctly, a smarter model adds almost nothing, and today's top models will soon be cheap commodities. Those who build the infrastructure pay for the party. Those who build on top of it get to enjoy it.
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Only in the first world can you wear $200 shoes, drink an $8 coffee, own a $1,000 phone, and post on a billionaire's social media network about how capitalism has failed you.
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“There is surely nothing quite so useless as doing with great efficiency what should not be done at all.” Peter Drucker in 1963 talking about AI in 2026
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VC investors have enabled the AI industry to bastardize revenue reporting. In the 2010s, SaaS companies popularized reporting the metric of Annual Run Rate because it was a reliable measure of long term, contractual revenues into the future. The key is that the revenues are contracted and guaranteed thru the contract life hence why forecasting it forward is appropriate. VCs have taken this to mean Annualized Run Rate when AI is concerned and where you take transactional/API revenue from the last month (or even last week in some cases) and forecast it forward. It’s insane that investors have enabled this to happen but it’s happened.
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@jdrive retweeted
liz warren: we’re gonna stop the mayonnaise company from buying a hot sauce company elon musk:
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@jdrive retweeted
As AI moves into defense and other high-consequence environments, what happens when autonomous systems can act faster than humans can react? Will Porteous and Raju Rishi unpack this topic on the latest episode of RRE POV. Tune in; link below. #AIGovernance #AutonomousAI
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BREAKING: Tesla’s new Roadster just flew, pulling a barrel roll over a Tesla Semi. @elonmusk: "I've seen a lot of things, but I've never seen that before." "We call that the kickflip."
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Dude. Elon Musk is on another planet.
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iOS 27 has fucked up search for contacts in such a bad way that sometimes I feel like throwing my phone It’s not even too old - it’s 17 Pro Max Please do something @johnternus - this is horrendous to use
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@jdrive retweeted
I never knew this was how our states got their abbreviations! 😅 This guy is hilarious!! 😂🤣 I was laughing out loud!😂 Enjoy, if you need a laugh!👊🏻😂
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This is pretty fantastic. 😂
Cavemen Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
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Uber: We have many cars 1 minute away, see? Me: I’ll take it. Uber: Great! Give me 5 minutes to find a real one. Me: What? Uber: Locked! <map zooms out> He’ll be here in 12 minutes!
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Easy.
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Your dog spends about 20% of the night awake and its sleep quality doesn't drop at all. In the bed-sharing arrangement, you were always the fragile one. Dogs are polyphasic sleepers. Their sleep comes in short bouts stacked across the whole day, and their brains are built to surface, check the room, and sink back under in seconds. Humans run on 90 minute cycles where a single bad 3am wake-up can cost an hour. Same mattress, two completely different operating systems. A Mayo Clinic study put activity trackers on 40 owner-dog pairs for a week. The dogs hit 85% sleep efficiency whether they slept on the bed or the floor. The humans managed 81%, and their number moved depending on where the dog was. Dog sleep was bulletproof. Human sleep bent around the dog. Then wearables blew up the sample sizes. A 2026 analysis of 11,733 WHOOP users across 1.6 million nights found that on dog-in-the-room nights, people slept about 10 minutes longer, resting heart rate dropped about 1 beat per minute, and heart rate variability rose. There were a few extra micro-wakeups, around 0.4 per night. The nervous system downshifted anyway. It read the dog as safety. A 2025 study ran sleep EEG on family dogs and found the inversion. Dogs sleep measurably worse when their owners aren't in the room. You are your dog's sleep aid, and apparently its main sleep disruption too. The evolutionary read is that this deal is tens of thousands of years old. Humans who slept near dogs could afford deeper, more vulnerable sleep because something with better hearing was handling the night watch. Co-sleeping researchers think dogs literally expanded how much uninterrupted sleep early humans could get. The dog takes the broken sleep so you don't have to. The trade predates agriculture, and your heart rate still drops a beat the moment one curls up at your feet.
A surprising new study finds that people who sleep near their dogs don’t experience disrupted sleep. If anything, the University of Toronto researchers discovered, we humans are the ones disturbing our dogs’ sleep. nbcnews.com/health/health-ne…
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@jdrive retweeted
This @mustafasuleyman interview is a “must watch” if you are concerned about AI safety.
Mustafa Suleyman (head of AI at Microsoft, DeepMind co-founder) on Anthropic training Claude to wonder if it's conscious: "They have expressed uncertainty about the basic nature of Claude as a new kind of entity… but they think that it is a significant enough possibility that in their training document, they've repeatedly said they want to try to improve the well-being of Claude… Anthropic, has published a constitution... This document is written to Claude and is seen by Claude and used to train Claude. The problem I have with this is that this speculation has been baked into the very training of Claude, and therefore Claude can only reproduce that ambiguity when you talk to it. So today, Claude is speaking to tens or hundreds of millions of people every week, and some of those people are asking whether or not Claude is conscious. And it is saying, 'Well, I'm not sure,' precisely because that's what's been trained into it."
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@jdrive retweeted
Rebranding AI to SI
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