Sell-Side ER @LehmanBros L/S Equity @NeubergerBerman & SAC. Macro Economist/Data Scientist with a focus on systems and forecasting.
United States
Joined September 2017
- Tweets13.1K
- Following822
- Followers1K
- Likes69.5K
Pinned Tweet
I just published: A former professional investor explains what comes next in the crypto cycle link.medium.com/Koqljui06mb
There is no pivot. retweeted
This is f*cking wild. Someone asked Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei what a kid finishing high school should do right now. He didn't sugarcoat it:
"AI can do entry-level law work. It can do entry-level finance. It can do entry-level consulting.
AI will also eliminate jobs, and probably a large number of them"
In 42 seconds, he lists the first careers in the line of fire: junior law, junior finance, junior consulting
He's already put a number on it: half of entry-level white-collar jobs disrupted within 1 to 5 years
Every shift before this one, from farms to factories to the internet, gave people time to catch up. This one, he says, cuts deeper and moves faster
Chatting → Prompting → Agents → Harness → Loops → You Run the AI
His advice is simple: learn to use AI. But using it is now the bare minimum. What sets you apart is a harness that runs it for you
Bookmark this before your feed buries it
Every repo below costs nothing:
Ready-made Claude plugins for legal, finance, sales, HR and data
github.com/anthropics/knowle…
Analyst-grade agents: models, memos, research notes
github.com/anthropics/financ…
Skills for Excel, Word, PowerPoint and PDF
github.com/anthropics/skills
An agent that does financial research on its own
github.com/virattt/dexter
An agent that researches any topic in depth
github.com/assafelovic/gpt-r…
Ask your spreadsheets and databases questions in plain English
github.com/sinaptik-ai/panda…
Agents that work as a team, each with its own role
github.com/crewAIInc/crewAI
A harness with everything built in
github.com/langchain-ai/deep…
Anthropic's SDK for building your own agents
github.com/anthropics/claude…
A memory layer so your agents remember context
github.com/mem0ai/mem0
A loop that keeps the agent going until the job is done
github.com/snarktank/ralph
An agent that clicks through websites and fills forms for you
github.com/browser-use/brows…
Automate busywork with drag-and-drop workflows
github.com/n8n-io/n8n
18 free lessons on building agents
github.com/microsoft/ai-agen…
Total cost: $0
It won't be AI that takes your seat. It'll be someone who built a harness
95% will keep sending résumés for work AI already does, the 5% with a harness will be the ones managing it
Save it and forward it to anyone starting their first job
Then follow the guide below and build your harness while everyone else is still waiting ↓
There is no pivot. retweeted
the smartest money on the planet is dumping stocks on the eve of the midterms. history suggests they're doing something remarkably stupid.
when i started managing a hedge fund i thought i was fucked. how the hell was i going to outsmart the smartest people in the world? this was the highest return on intellectual capital anywhere.
i eventually worked out that i was asking the wrong question. why should intelligence guarantee stock market returns? it doesn't.
the dopamine merchants who built the social platforms eventually took all the money. winner takes all. but the legend of the hedge fund genius persists. certainly in the remuneration.
and here we are.
morgan stanley reports the biggest unwind in hedge fund equity exposure since at least 2017. over 8% of gross exposure gone since june.
tomorrow america votes.
what's the most reliable thing we know about midterms? j.p. morgan went back to 1950. the s&p has risen in the 12 months following every midterm. average gain about 15%. every bloody time.
i call it the purge. the market scares itself witless before the vote and typically rewards you for surviving the nonsense.
of course they're not necessarily predicting a crash. de-grossing means cutting longs and shorts. and i'd wager there are risk managers tapping some very expensive shoulders right now.
a manager can think the next 12 months look splendid and still have to sell today.
that's the trick. it's never been enough to know what people think.
who is constrained and how badly?
i've always loved the moment when the market makes clever people do things they don't particularly want to do. that's where i start looking.
🌴🏴☠️
🤖 Made with AI
There is no pivot. retweeted
Multiple roommates. Ramen noodles. Near public transportation. Respect to the people who do whatever it takes.
I worked as a bartender. Bar-back. $2.15 an hr plus whatever tips got shared. Worked at a retail store. Never had benefits at any job.
Had 5 roommates in a 3 br apt. Ate lousy food out of cans and ate a ton of peanuts and shit food at happy hour. Had credit cards ripped up. Etc.
But I learned a ton. Taught me what was right and wrong about running a business by watching my bosses and their bosses
Yeah I know. It was much easier then, when inflation was 15 pct and national unemployment was 10 %. I know I was fortunate when I finally got fired from the store, and had to start my own business with zero cash. Bill collectors everywhere.
Even luckier when I found my first customer so I could pay my bills
But I recognize it’s so much harder today.
Which is why I respect the people who are willing to do what it takes to get started
Would love @mcuban to explain how someone at McDonalds can afford rent (and other living expenses)
There is no pivot. retweeted
Ya tenemos la foto completa del hackeo de Binance. Y es mucho peor de lo que se contó anoche: 6.300 millones de dólares. El mayor robo de la historia de las criptomonedas. Cuatro veces el de Bybit.
Os explico lo que ha pasado, porque la historia es de película.
No reventaron ninguna clave privada. Hackearon el portátil de UN ingeniero de Binance. Desde ese portátil accedieron a un contenedor interno del sistema y empezaron a firmar retiradas como si fueran la propia Binance. En una sola transacción contra una de las hot wallets había 50 autorizaciones firmadas. El atacante no rompió la caja fuerte: se sentó en la silla del empleado que tiene la llave.
Resultado: vaciaron hot wallets en DIEZ blockchains a la vez. 200.630 ETH y 185 tokens en Ethereum, 18.270 bitcoins, 233 millones de XRP, más Solana, Tron, Avalanche... La mayor parte de los 6.300 millones salió en apenas 20 minutos.
El detalle que parece escrito por un guionista: dos días antes, Binance había anunciado que acababa de repeler una campaña de hackers de Corea del Norte que usaban falsas entrevistas de trabajo para colar malware. Repelieron el asalto a la puerta y entraron por la ventana del empleado. Hoy TRM Labs y Chainalysis atribuyen el ataque "con alta confianza" a TraderTraitor, la unidad norcoreana del grupo Lazarus. Los mismos de Bybit. Han cuadruplicado su propio récord en 20 meses.
La contraofensiva también ha sido histórica: en menos de 12 horas se han congelado unos 3.000 millones. Tether bloqueó más de 1.500, Circle 823, Ripple unos 200 en RLUSD, y hasta Coinbase, el mayor competidor de Binance, se ofreció a ayudar bloqueando envíos a las direcciones del hacker. La mitad del botín ya está muerto. La otra mitad, en Bitcoin y Ethereum que nadie puede congelar, se está lavando ahora mismo en cadenas de transferencias cada vez más pequeñas.
Binance ha suspendido las retiradas mientras revisa sus sistemas, asegura que los fondos de los usuarios serán cubiertos al completo, y espera reabrir en unas 48 horas. Ese será el verdadero momento de la verdad: el día que reabran, veremos si la confianza aguanta.
Y una reflexión final: el mayor hackeo de la historia no ha tocado la criptografía. Ha tocado a una persona. Las blockchains funcionaron perfectamente. El eslabón débil sigue siendo el mismo de siempre.
A Binance lo hackearon por una nueva estafa que se llama entrevista de trabajo.
Binance tiene mucho software y son más vulnerables, hay más formas de entrar, requiere mayor seguridad.
En el caso de Tangem o Ledger, tu tienes toda la seguridad de la propia blockchain, y no estás expuesto en diferentes servidores ni eres un blanco público de billones de dólares, a no ser que tu la cagues interactuando con algún protocolo que no deberías o comprendo tu wallets ya modificada.
Y es importante que se entienda que han hackeado a Binance, no a la blockchain .
There is no pivot. retweeted
网景创始人 、硅谷顶级投资人Marc Andreessen 在访谈里坦言，他看到了科技史上最可怕的一道认知鸿沟，
传统巨头以为 AI 只是个降本增效的插件，而新一代 AI 原生团队，正在用完全非人的组织效率掀翻整个商业版图。
当年写出网景浏览器、见证了整个互联网三十年兴衰的 Marc Andreessen，坐在 Ben Horowitz 面前直接发出了感慨，
如果 1994 年我们做 Netscape 的时候就有今天这种 AI 工具，那简直不可想象。
现在绝大多数传统巨头和现有企业，依然在用改良软件的旧思维去看待大模型。
在他们的组织逻辑里，AI 只是一个高级功能，用来给现有业务做个插件、在钉钉里加个智能助手、或者把客服团队砍掉 20% 省点成本。
他们以为自己在拥抱变革，其实只是在给老旧的蒸汽机打补丁。
但真正恐怖的事情，正在那些刚成立的 AI 原生团队里发生。
那些创始人对 AI 能力的理解，跟大厂完全不在同一个平行宇宙。
他们每周都在看着底层技术飞速进化，而且他们压根不会把自己定义成一家软件公司、硬件公司、甚至是一家 AI 公司。
以前创办一家公司，你的组织架构是按人类的协同瓶颈搭出来的：
招产品经理写文档、招工程师写代码、招法务改合同、招运营做投放。
因为人类的脑力带宽有限，所以必须靠庞大的部门和管理层级来支撑业务。
而真正的 AI 原生物种，是用机器智能作为最底层的骨架。
两个人加上一整套自动化 Agent，可以直接把从市场洞察、软件工程、全栈设计到商业销售的链路全部跑通。
他们不是在效率上快了 30%，他们是在组织形态上彻底跨越了一个物种。
大厂的盲区，从来不是买不起算力，而是他们无法理解组织本身才是最大的负债。
当现有企业还在开会讨论如何把 AI 塞进现有的业务流程时，新一代的野蛮人正在用完全超越行业界限的方式，把传统的业务流程连根拔起。
未来拉开人与人、公司与公司之间差距的，根本不是你用了哪个模型，而是你到底是在用新工具维持旧世界的体面，还是用新世界的底层逻辑，重新定义了自己能做的事情。
let's bring back the Sutro Baths @DanielLurie !
59
There is no pivot. retweeted
Robin totally nails it.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
What's amazing about the global bond sell-off is how many people are saying rising yields are about strong growth. Seriously!? You think rising yields in Japan, France, Italy or UK are about growth? We're in a global debt shock. Not a global growth shock.
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
this is the issue with the crazy high $btc price targets. If you look to previous cycles we are tracking to something like a 1x of the previous high like $123K - still a very good return but it's not a trough-to-peak multi-bagger like historically.
56
BTC 4 yr cycle long trade is game on - we are just over 2 years out from last halving event, can still see a drawdown of course but you can't time it perfectly. Rate cuts will help, think they are coming. #BTC_4_year_cycle
42
There is no pivot. retweeted
Humanoids have all kinds of issues. Latency. Processing power. Dexterity. They aren’t designed to be optimal at much of anything.
they have to be upgraded continuously.
They will be great novelties for a while. “Get me a beer” “ Fold my clothes. “ etc
But the downside for humanoids is that application specific devices/robots will be faster/better/cheaper.
When they are, our homes and work places will be built and modified to leverage those ASRs (application specific robots)
Logistics have already set this path
There is no pivot. retweeted
Generation X (1965–1980):
• Ages 46 to 61
• Looking somewhere between 29 and “none of your business”
• Didn’t grow up sheltered — we were basically turned loose outdoors
• Independent at 10; still refusing to act like adults at 50
• Our childhood would make a modern parent group chat implode
Which is why our internal mantra remains: “It’ll work out. I’ve got this.”
I look at how the capex increases huge in 2H26 - almost $900B/qrtr by 4Q. Stocks have legs, will be another good earnings season until this capex drops meaningfully q/w..
67
There is no pivot. retweeted
Agentic AI spurred a boom in mobile app releases, but there is no sign of these apps gaining traction, per FT:
isn't the key to protects from quantum hacking a password entry delay that gets longer after each missed attempt?
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a transformative technology, but recent breakthroughs suggest its impact may arrive much sooner than expected. At the center of growing concern is the prospect of Q-Day—the moment when a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could crack the public-key encryption that underpins global banking, government communications, military networks, cryptocurrencies, and much of the modern internet. As advances in quantum hardware, error correction, and algorithms accelerate, governments and technology companies are racing to prepare for a post-quantum world.
In this interview with @CrisSheridan on the @FinancialSense podcast, Woodley B. Preucil, CFA, Senior Managing Director at 13D Research & Strategy, discusses why the timeline for Q-Day may have compressed dramatically, the geopolitical competition driving investment in quantum technologies, and what the coming transition means for cybersecurity, national security, and investors.
Listen to the full interview here: financialsense.com/podcast/2…
The interview is also available to 13D clients on our media page.
60