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Former WSJ journo Jon Hilsenrath responds on LinkedIn
ATTENTION MR. BESSENT, 2.0: YOU ARE COMING UP SHORT ON YOUR OWN '3-3-3' GOALS
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been attacking financial journalists on Twitter [X] this morning. It's petty, but let's judge a man not by what he says. Let's judge him on what he accomplishes.
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Bessent laid out a '3-3-3' economic agenda for his prospective administration. This was a promise to achieve annual economic growth of 3%, reduce the federal budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product, and increase daily output of oil by 3 million barrels per day.
President Trump's economic co-pilot is failing on every count:
-- Growth in economic output as measured by real gross domestic product slowed to a 1.95% annualized rate during President Trump's first 18 months in office. That's a slower growth rate than the average 3.2% rate when Biden was in office, though the Biden rate was bolstered by a post-Covid pandemic recovery. The Bessent 1.95% growth rate is a touch slower than the 2.0% growth rate during Obama's eight year term in office.
-- The budget deficit is estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to be 5.8% in the fiscal year that ends in September, nearly double the Treasury Secretary's promised rate. In order to reach 3% of GDP, the budget deficit would need to be nearly a trillion dollars smaller. Instead, it will rise next year, in part because of the cost of funding the war in the Persian Gulf. I see little evidence that the present administration, or anyone in Washington for that matter, has a credible plan to reduce the red ink that's spilling forth like a geyser from Washington on a daily basis.
-- Domestic oil production averaged 13.71 million barrels daily in May, up 0.57 million from 13.14 million in January 2025. Again, short of the goal. Implicit in the promise on oil production was a promise that energy costs would ease. They have not.
On one count that matters to many Americans, the economy is delivering a number with a "3" in it: The inflation rate was 3.7% higher in June that it was a year earlier, as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred personal consumption expenditure price index.
I have no desire to get political, but when a politician attacks honest people who I know and respect, that bugs me. It's petty, and meant purely as distraction.
After markets close this weekend Moody's are likely to downgrade France's credit rating from AA3 to AA1. If France is downgraded by Moody’s, this would not affect the EU’s rating but would result in a downgrade of EFSF to Aa1. In addition, French agencies rated by Moody’s would also be downgraded in line with the sovereign. OATs dislocated further from EGB peers overnight; 10y France v Germany +14bp to 174bp, 10y France v Italy +5bp to 47bp. The French 10y yield rose 6bps to 5.07%. OAT futs are down in APAC trading. base:0x832bcced5bd431b31663576490344ea1c0bea295 #France
All that glitters is not #gold $XAU. Big liquidations sub $4k. A pity for those Singapore family offices @skippy07216416
Australia’s 60 minutes has released a preview of this Sunday’s interview with RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter. The interview was pre-recorded on 21 October 2026.
The programme is titled “Rate rise reckoning”. #AusPol for @Scutty
youtube.com/watch?v=EcFDIx0z…
There was some interest in yesterday’s announcement that RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter will be interviewed on 60 minutes this Sunday with some comparing it to when RBA Dep Gov Hauser appeared on ABC TV on September 8 which shifted the odds for a Sept RBA hike. However, with a Senate appearance by Gov Bullock and staff on Oct 28 the Hunter interview may lose its relevance as she is a NV for the MPC. #auspol
Anyway #RBA Dep Gov Hauser speaks today at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney. We regard Hauser at the most hawkish of the RBA's MPC that has spoken publicly. I would expect that much like Kent on Monday he would acknowledge that the UER is above NAIRU and above the RBA's current forecast.
Keep the porch light on!
A mysterious object discovered near a remote Pacific island is not the wreckage of Amelia Earhart's missing plane, researchers said after an expedition to the site, dealing another setback to efforts to solve one of aviation's greatest mysteries nearly 90 years after the pilot disappeared
There were several LNG tankers moving in and out of the Hatsukaichi LNG terminal near Hiroshima. Currently LNG running as Australia's 2nd biggest export behind iron ore. With Platts LNG Japan/Korea marker trading at $26.09 up from $9.54 earlier in the year it's no wonder $AUDJPY is still trading above the 110 level.
