
Former IT Support Engineer. Currently Senior Solutions in Fee-Only Wealth Advisory in SG. #FIRE Blogger. Discuss #MUFC #factorinvesting
Singapore
Joined June 2008
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Kyith retweeted
Carrick not trusting Andrey Santos early enough this season might have been one of the reasons Manutd are where they are now.
You can clearly see the difference in quality between him and Baleba.
When I said he’s more matured and assured on and off the ball than Baleba, people thought I was capping.
Baleba is obviously more talented but isn’t better currently..
Once Mainoo is back, it should be a Mainoo Santos double pivot henceforth
Kyith retweeted
Russell 2000 $IWM all the way down to the 🟠YTD AVWAP. This is the #levelofinterest I have been referencing.
ZERO evidence buyers are gaining control and below the decl 5sma.
Will the institutions defend this level? We will know after the fact, for now we observe patiently.
Kyith retweeted
I’ll give you my allocation:
21/21/28/18/12
US large cap high prof
US large cap value
U.S. small cap value
Int’l large cap value
Int’l small cap value
All Dimensional funds (IRAs) and ETFs (taxable)
Kyith retweeted
2/2 Those who think rates will continue to climb should avoid small caps. Those with a bond-bullish view should consider an index weight (about 13 pct of a US stock portfolio) or greater, based on their conviction behind that call...
Kyith retweeted
1/2 US small caps have been underperforming large caps in recent weeks, weighed down by both rising Treasury yields and suddenly elevated high yield corporate bond spreads. These mask what should be a great backdrop for small caps: a resilient US economy...
Wise $WSE FY26 Earnings
- Active Cust 18.9m +21% ↗️🟢
- Cross-Border Volume $243.5b +31% ↗️🟢
- Cross-Border Take Rate 52bps -6bps ↘️🔴
- Cross-Border Rev $1.3b +17% ↗️🟡
- Card Spend $43.6b +37% ↗️🟢
- Card Rev $392m +40% ↗️🟢
- Cust Holdings $39b +40% ↗️🟢
- Cust Holdings (Wise Acct) $30b +36% ↗️🟢
- Cust Holdings (Wise Assets) $9b +55% ↗️🟢
- Other Rev $245m +26% ↗️🟢
- 75% of transfers completed instantly (<20sec)
- Txn Rev $1.9b +22% ↗️🟢
- Int Income $806m +6% ↗️🟡
- Int Expense -$197m
- Net Rev $2.5b +19% ↗️🟢
- EBIT $591m -19% ↘️🔴 margin 23.6% -1109 bps ↘️🔴
- EBT $660m -8% ↘️🔴 margin 26.4% -780 bps ↘️🔴
- Net Inc $499m -9% ↘️🔴 margin 19.9% -629 bps ↘️🔴
Revenue by Geography - Europe, APAC, ROW strong, US, UK weaker
- Total Txn Rev $1.9b +22% ↗️🟢
- Europe (ex-UK) $569m +22% ↗️🟢
- APAC $451m +34% ↗️🟢
- US $262m +14% ↗️🟡
- UK $329m +14% ↗️🟡
- ROW $283m +26% ↗️🟢
- Total Net Rev $2.5b +19% ↗️🟢
- Europe (ex-UK) $713m +20% ↗️🟢
- APAC $516m +35% ↗️🟢
- US $365m +15% ↗️🟢
- UK $586m +7% ↗️🟡
- ROW $322m +25% ↗️🟢
FY27 Mgmt Guide
- Net Rev +17.5%
- EBT 25%
LT Mgmt Guide
- Net Rev +15-20% CAGR
- EBT 15-20% margin
1 | Three new license approvals in South Africa, UAE, and Thailand. Rolled out assets to Brazil. Four new partnerships on the Wise platform.
We went live with direct connections into the Japanese and Brazilian domestic payment systems. We also added multiple new financial services alliances, for example, in South Africa, the UAE and Thailand. We were excited to announce Raiffeisen, UniCredit, MBSB in Malaysia and Capitec in South Africa joining Wise Platform in FY '26.
2 | Excited about the platform pipeline and expect new names to be announced.
we're very excited about the platform pipeline. You're going to be hearing about new names that will be coming out. And as you rightly pointed out, it's a combination of new names that joined Wise Platform, but also the deeper embedding of expansion of existing names. So we love the customers that we have on Wise Platform, and we love the new ones that are coming on board.
3 | Direct connections into domestic payment systems are overall helping lower unit cost over time, allowing them to price each cross-border transaction competitively and profitably.
Our direct connections into domestic payment systems, in addition to our large payments network, helped lower our unit costs over time. So that we can price each cross-border transaction profitably and yet charge customers just 52bps on average over the year.
4 | Large opportunities in SME and individual cross-border payments remain, 5% for individuals and <1% for SMEs.
As you can see on the next slide, looking at our share of total cross-border payments, we moved around 5% of the world's money cross-borders for individuals last year and just less than 1% of the small and medium businesses volumes. So we have a huge opportunity ahead of us in this $43 trillion market. In just 15 years, we've grown from 0 to now moving $0.25 trillion a cross-border.
5 | No update from European prosecutors thus far, no detailed findings, business continues BAU. Would like UK regulators to allow Wise to return interest to UK customers, but so far no news.
So we don't really have any new update from the prosecutor at all in the topic that was in news. And this is in line with the infrequent nature of the interaction with us. And to your question, we don't have any detailed findings. We continue the business as usual, and we're focused on serving our direct customers and platform partners. So if there's anything new, we will update you.
We are very much hoping that the U.K. regime would also allow the returning of interest to customers that it currently doesn't. There haven't been any news on the regulatory space from that perspective as far as I'm aware.
6 | Significantly grew headcount, added over 2,000 new employees.
Redeploying profits into long-term capabilities and growing our teams. During the year, we increased our direct investments into the business through growth in operating expenses of 39% YoY to $1.9 billion. We were able to achieve this as we successfully recruited and onboard over 2,000 new Wisers.
7 | Increased marketing spend by over 60%, focusing on >20% return.
Moving on to our investments to acquire, onboard and service our growing customer base. In 2026, we increased our marketing spend by over 60% to $172 million. We are focused on new channels and increased brand marketing investments. And we have also increased the size of Wise Platform and Wise business sales teams. And we are pleased with the return that we are seeing from this effort as we continue to lean into marketing investments while targeting a minimum 20% return on this and also supported by a strong 70% customer acquisition through word of mouth.
8 | Increased servicing spend and tech and development spend.
In the full year 2026, we increased our servicing spend by 38% to $397 million, mainly driven by our employees' hires. So we believe these strategic investments are vital, especially considering the vast opportunities ahead as we focus on acquiring new customers, while we also foster deeper long-term loyalty with our existing base.
In 2026, we invest $434 million, up 38% YoY into tech and development to launch new products and also to maintain our existing products and rolling them out in new regions. We are not just growing our tech teams to achieve this.
9 | NASDAQ IPO saw higher listing expenses as well, one-off expense of $45m.
In 2026, we increased our spend by 40% year-on-year to $382 million, driven by a preparation for the dual listing and introduction on NASDAQ, with a one-off expense of $45 million as well as growth in regulatory and hiring costs.
10 | While OPEX seems to have grown higher at +21% ve net revenue +19%, leading to lower profit margins, adjusting for one-off adjustments, OPEX grew +17%, lower instead.
Transaction expenses as a percentage of net revenue increased to 21% as mainly as a result of a one-off U.S. GAAP adjustments in relation to FX on certain government bonds of around $70 million, which increased transaction expenses and this was offset in other comprehensive income. Excluding this impact, operating expenses increased by 17%, lower than transaction revenue growth.
11 | 6bps reduction in take rates largely due to FY25 price changes. Continue to focus on scaled economies shared.
Within our investment framework, alongside our direct investments into the business, we seek to invest into a sustainable reduction of our price. These remain long term, driving down price for customers while building a sustainable profitable business. In 2026, while the average take rate reduced by 6bps from 58bps to 52bps, this mostly reflects price change implemented in the FY25. Looking forward, we expect to continue sharing these efficiencies with customers as we generate extra capacities for investments.
12 | See price adjustment as a reinvestment strategy, allowing them to build the lowest cost structure and while short-term impacts are limited, competitive pricing is why customers keep using them.
I think for us, price adjustment is a part of our reinvestment strategy. I highlight very like our investment that we've done this year into the business. We reduced only, if I may say, by 2bps in FY26, the take rate. In general, we think that price is the #1 argument for customers to come to us and to use us. This is how we build the moat alongside our infrastructure and the quality of the service that we build, and that's why we put so much effort in that. It's fair to say that we are -- we don't put any floor, any limits. And we think that the price, if you want to talk about price elasticity is a long-term game. So we don't expect immediate return of a price reduction, but we know that at the end, on the long term, price matters for every single customers that are using us.
13 | Expatica acquisition, a leading platform for expats, which had >7mil visits in 2025, more as a marketing strategy than an operational M&A. Only done 1 M&A in India for license.
Expatica. So maybe to set the scene, we don't have a legacy of M&A transactions. We've done only one in our history that I qualified as an M&A. It was in India to get a license. And this is not really on our focus in the next few years, but we will also look at opportunities to tell it clearly.
This one specifically, you might have seen the announcement is not very material, but it's part of our marketing strategy as opposed to operational M&A transaction, if you wish. So yes, Expatica was small, but it's more in our marketing strategy.
14 | Application for US Non-Depository Trust Charter in the process, will take time, continue to operate with 48 money transmitter licenses.
And you referred to our application with the OCC for a non-depository trust charter. And as you know, the OCC has a well-established process for reviewing applications, and we're continuing to follow that process. But in the meantime, and for a while, we've been operating in the U.S. with 48 money transmitter licenses in each of the states. So that -- and as you hear, the U.S.
business is growing really well. Our being opportunistic adding more licenses around the world as we expand our products.
15 | Expecting 1H27 to see faster growth and higher profitability than 2H27.
For 2027 specifically, we expect net revenue growth to be around the middle of our medium-term guidance of 15% to 20%. In terms of the shape of the year, due to the phasing of our investments into pricing, we expect this growth to be more pronounced in the first half of the year. Similarly, we expect that the scheduling of our reinvestments into the business will drive a comparable trend in our profitability. While we aim for full year margins around the high end of the 20% to 25% range, we expect this to be front half weighted, delivering results slightly above this target in H1. Our
➡️ Key Takeaways on Wise $WSE
Wise continues to grow its business of B2C with personal and business strongly across customers, volumes, spend, balances. Lower prices and take-rates are strategic to win more new, drive higher retention, and usage. Higher near-term reinvestment re-normalizes profitability back to long-term levels that are highly strategic to strengthening its growing cross-border payments infrastructure moat of over 70 licenses and soon to be 8 direct instant payment connections that is increasingly becoming difficult to replicate and compete againsdt, with the strength in on/off ramps. B2B platforms is growing faster and Wise becomes the lowest cost provider powering the 2nd/3rd tier FIs and gradually extend that to the more dominant ones. Wise is almost the “Costco/Shopify” of Cross-Border Payments” building the cross-border payments infrastructure moat of a great enduring generational business.
Regional banks for 18 years since the Great Financial Crisis have managed to fight through an insane amount of headwinds and have barely participated in this bull market and you think this is the top?
What's left remaining after 18 years is the best of the best, so when these go, the engine of America finally sets the economy ablaze.
Kyith retweeted
We backtested every monthly OpEx since 2021 to answer one question:
When massive gamma rolls off, what happens next?
58 OpEx events. Here's what the data says 👇
When >40% of dealer gamma expires (like tonight):
• Avg 5-day return: +1.16%
• Median: +1.48%
• Win rate: 67%
• t-stat: 2.43 (statistically significant, p < 0.02)
When only 20-30% rolls off:
• Avg 5-day return: -0.22%
• Win rate: 46%
The edge is real and it's monotonic — more gamma off = better short-term returns.
Why? When positive gamma expires, dealers unwind hedges. The resulting flow dynamics push prices higher in the first week.
But it comes with a catch:
>40% rolloff → 6.76% average 20-day range
30-40% rolloff → 4.61% range
Bigger moves both ways. The stabilizer is gone.
Yesterday: SPY lost 44.8% of gamma. QQQ lost 47.1%.
That puts us squarely in the MASSIVE bucket.
Historical bias: bullish for 5 days, wider ranges for 20.
Not financial advice. Just data.
$SPY $QQQ $NVDA $VIX
Kyith retweeted
Nobody believes me when I tell them that the deficit is $458 billion lower in the trailing twelve months.
Kyith retweeted
Good article on the case for small cap investing, especially today in an era of record high valuations on large cap stocks.
Also note the issues with small cap stocks included in most basic index funds--without consideration of asset growth and profitability--you're paying up without an expected return benefit.
Another reason to always avoid basic index funds for large or small stocks.
Kyith retweeted
$PYPL
Just to highlight something…
eBay… a company everyone left for dead was able to canabalize itself into a massive upswing.
PayPal is now in a similar position. People should take a few minutes to understand the value in a business that generates enough cashflow to buy itself at the rate of 15-18% per year.
This is the time to think 2-3 years into the future.
With little to no NET debt.
Kyith retweeted
The industrial recession has been going on for 3 years.
It’s just that Wall Street and the service economy chose not to participate.
The industrial economy has been primed for a recovery.
Kyith retweeted
A legitimately strong move in the ISM manufacturing index today, which is echoed in many of the PMIs abroad (so I don’t see it as a fluke). The global manufacturing sector appears to be recovering following last year’s tariff turbulence.
Kyith retweeted
You’re probably forgetting the most important part of investing. What is it?
Let’s take a diversified stock portfolio—S&P 500 along with US large and small value stocks and 30% in international large/small value stocks. A balanced asset class portfolio.
It’s return since 1995? +10.5% per year. No big deal. We take 10% for granted. Here’s what you’re forgetting:
Compound interest.
How much do you think 10%-ish grows to over 31 years? What happens to $1? Try to guess, then look at the chart below for the answer.
$22. That‘s a 22-fold increase.
Sure, 11% or 12% would be better. But getting 10%—which has been the 100-year average for the S&P 500 and which I would argue is most likely in the future from a diversified stock portfolio (not just US large companies)—and allowing it to compound for 3 decades, is what really matters. It‘s where life-altering wealth comes from.
And all it takes is patience.
Kyith retweeted
Easy-peezey gonna SQUEEZY?
$RUT short interest +38.5% YTD and +15% Y/Y (now in 97th %ile over last 5-Yrs)
Even w/small-caps $IWM lagging, positioning shows heavy bearish exposure sticking around!
And this when Russell 2000 FW EPS has overtaken S&P FW EPS (2nd chart) SQUEEZY!
$SPY $RTY $TNA $NYA $QQQ h/t @schaeffers
Kyith retweeted
Activist investor HoldCo targets America's underperforming banks
$EBC $CMA $COLB $TRST cnbc.com/2025/10/28/activist…
Kyith retweeted
Farewell, Jonathan. Thank you for generously sharing your wisdom with us all these years. You will be sorely missed. humbledollar.com/forum/farew…
Kyith retweeted
$DFSV
Rate cuts: This environment is broadly supportive of financial assets, especially small-cap stocks, which are potentially poised for strong performance due to their domestic revenue exposure and higher floating-rate debt sensitivity.
Kyith retweeted
Look at KRE. Look at FLG. Look at ST USTs. The market is finally coming to terms with the inevitable. Nothing will stop the Trump lower rate agenda. It will advance by any means necessary. The Fed will cut substantially. “Oh no, LT rates will skyrocket!” Nope. Trump will get lower LT rates too. The new supply will be crushed to 0 and the Fed will absorb all duration. “Oh no, the dollar will plunge!” Nope. Foreigners will continue to transact in USD or we’ll kill them all with drones from our living rooms. The dollar is still the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper. This is just the way the World works. Don’t be so naive. You “don’t fight the Fed” people need to realize the Fed “independence” has been a sham all along, but now you’re about to see its public execution. Don’t fight the Fed = don’t fight the DON!


































