Les 📈🚀 retweeted
Bottom Fishers Beware!
Technology is extremely oversold, and that is a tempting condition for bottom fishing crowd. The Technology sector trailed the S&P 500 by 11.8% over the 21 trading days ending November 5, marking its worst relative drawdown since 2001. However, Technology’s oversold condition is no guarantee that a sustainable bottom is near. If history is a guide, volatility is more likely than a sustained alpha producing period.
The chart below plots every occurrence that Technology underperformed the S&P 500 by more than 10% over 21 days since 1990. While several cases were followed by short-term bounces, most were fleeting, with the average case drifting lower for three months. The biggest exception was 2002, when Technology saw a quick recovery following a selloff associated with the dot-com bust.
While every cycle plays out differently, history suggests that a sustainable relative strength bottom may take time to develop.
minervini.com
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
The S&P 500's forward 12-Month P/E ratio has moved down to 17.7, the lowest level since Nov 2023.
-5-Year Avg: 19.8
-10-Year Avg: 19.1
-15-Year Avg: 17.6
What's driving this?
In 2026, earnings estimates (+34%) haven risen much faster than prices (+7%).
(Note: data as of Nov 5)
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
Entirety of last week’s selloff in Tech retraced…
Except, everyone is now underweight the group & degrossed at the lows.
For anyone discussing today’s low volume (It was actually average), markets melt up on low volume & bottom on high volume. Enjoy the incoming ‘most hated rally’ ever, followed by a massive releveraging event in Q1 (Because funds have beaten down puppy syndrome and are afraid to add risk so they’ll wait a quarter).
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
View from THE bottom?
Over 100 trading days through November 5th $XLK underperformed $SPY by -12.7 pts, the most since at least 2010.
When Tech has lagged the S&P by 2 standard deviations in the past, the downside has been limited, often marking the bottom.
$ES_F $SPX $MSFT $MU $AVGO $QQQ $NDX $SPCX $AAPL $NVDA $MAGS $SMH
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
So much added uncertainty hitting $NVDA today.
I get it.
But man does it look cheap.
Even if you want to assume cycle tailwinds unexpectedly slow & forward profit growth is severely cut by 50%... still a 0.6X PEG. Still a tech leader. Still one of the cheapest names in the market.
🤷♂️
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
momentum falling back to the long-term trendline.
The story of 2026. Extreme to extreme.
From a 5-sigma overshoot in Momentum relative to Low Volatility in June... to the absolute carnage we've seen in Momentum stocks... one of the worst drawdowns on RECORD for Momo basket now.
Remarkable how quickly the pendulum can swing from one extreme to the other.
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
Q: Is the recent outperformance in the tech heavy NASDAQ 100 similar to the eye popping gains before the Dot-Com bubble burst?
A: No, and it is not even close. Click image to enlarge.
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
$SPY $QQQ
This post is PERFECTLY INDICATIVE of what’s going on
This is a very calculated BEAR RAID from people on social media, our own politicians, and other countries state sponsoring discourse within our social media and politics
THIS IS 150% UTTER LIES IN THIS POST BELOW
THERE IS NO INSIDER IN THE FED
THE DEBT BEING RAISED BY OUR LARGEST COMPANIES MAKE MORE IN REVENUE IN ONE QUARTER THAN THE MONEY BEING SPENT
OUR ENTIRE ECONOMY GENERATES 33 TRILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, SPENDING A TRILLION DOLLARS ON CAPEX BY OUR BIGGEST COMPANIES IS NOTTTTTT GOING TO MAKE EVERYONE HOMELESS 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
This is nothing like 2008
There’s no liquidity crisis when the FED has the ability to cut interest rates and do QE wayyyyyyy before such a crisis which is completely fabricated by this person and many others doing the same
This circular financing crap is a talking point many use to sell to sheep 🐑 that don’t understand complicated economics and complex computer science and complex financing
The majority of “financing” for NVDA GPU’s and memory, and liquid cooling, and CPU’s, and networking, and many other things that go in a data center is being done by $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, $AAPL, $ORCL and others as well as major SOVEREIGN countries like Japan, Saudi Arabia, EU, Australia, and others… all of those entities generate money elsewhere and have the ability to buildout an Industrial Revolution
This person pretending to have an insider in the FED and carefully wording things like “what does circular financing mean” is firstly illegal and the equivalent of running into a crowded theater and screaming fire 🔥
The better question is, what’s the true source and epicenter of this discourse, and what’s the goal and reasoning behind it?
I genuinely don't know how much longer they can keep this quiet.
Someone I know in a VERY senior position in the Federal Reserve has just told me something extremely concerning.
Apparently today's market collapse has triggered a liquidity crisis at one of the largest financial institutions in the country.
The issue is AI infrastructure debt, not their equity exposure.
Billions in loans are secured against projected data centre revenues that simply don't exist.
And apparently they've been using the projected revenues from those SAME data centres to justify further borrowing.
He described it as "a circular financing structure." WTAF does that mean???
The bank has reportedly approached the Fed for emergency liquidity. Officials have apparently been instructed to avoid using the words "insolvency", "contagion" or "AI bubble" in any written comms.
The Treasury is involved. So are at least four other banks, and a bunch of top hedge funds.
My contact says they've been quietly preparing emergency measures for a market event that could make 2008 look insignificant.
I asked how much money would be required to stabilise the system, and he said they don't know yet.
He thinks the total stimulus required to prevent the majority of Americans losing their homes, is greater than the current national debt of the United States.
WAKE UP. JUDGEMENT DAY IS HERE.
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
If This Is 1997/1998, What Comes Next?
If you accept the thesis that ChatGPT was the "Netscape moment," we are not sitting at the precipice of March 2000. Chronologically, we are roughly equivalent to 1997 or 1998—a period characterized by:
Sharp, violent mid-cycle pullbacks (the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 1998 LTCM collapse).
Emerging anxiety that corporate IT spend wasn't translating to bottom-line productivity quickly enough.
The precursor to the parabolic, retail-fueled melt-up that defined the late-90s blow-off.
The real test of this cycle won't be whether the Nasdaq continues to track the 1990s line chart. It will be whether the AI application layer—the startups, enterprise SaaS platforms, and agentic workflows—can cross the chasm from experimental cost centers into self-sustaining revenue before the hyperscalers slow their capital expenditures.
Until that question is answered, the market will keep swinging between the fear of 2000 and the FOMO of 1999.
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
There’s no genocide. It’s the 5th most concentrated population on Earth and with that level of destruction if it was truly genocidal the vast majority of 2.1 million would be dead. This guy is a PLO Islamist sympathizer and Oct 7 designed to usher in political shifts via guys like this all across the west. It’s the same old shit. Hide behind innocent people wait for them to die then hold up the discarded bodies for the world to see claiming oppression and genocide and sympathies to garner conversions and sympathy movements across the world for expansionist movements. Those Gazans are nothing but expendable tools for the Middle Eastern countries to keep Israel in constant conflict until the day they can erase them
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
The Everything Melt Up Is Still ON - This is another opportunity - We will party more like its the late 1990s (A "comeback" Thread)
The market has been nothing short of brutal in H2, so I feel obligated to share some data I’m looking at in regards to the “everything melt up”
1) Firstly, if anyone has ever traded or studied historical melt ups you will know that during these you will see inter cyclical parabolic moves followed by brutal and aggressive pullbacks. This is what we're seeing right now in markets based on the data below (Yes its still the 1990s all over again)
Analog match below is fairly on point and indicates that the pullback we have seen ends fairly soon!
NFA
$SPY $QQQ $BTC $ETH
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
The dot-com bubble vs the AI boom:
H/T to @lesse_jivermore for creating this awsome comparison👇
Les 📈🚀 retweeted
MORATORIUM ON THE MORATORIUM
The most powerful women in the world (as it relates to markets) is Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa.
Gina just put a mortaorium on the moratorium for datacetners.
These politicians aren't stupid.
They understand the threat posed by China AI leadership.
Dems also passed the Chips Act. They understand blue collar jobs also benefit.
Most of the pushback on datacenters is simply midterm positioning.
What Gina wants to do is stop freebie sales tax giveaways.
Charging datacenter on taxes *is* sensible policy in any case.
Of course, technology companies should pay taxes.
Markets should start to discount Texas passing a legislative framework around Datacenters soon - especially with these comments below.
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
