Updates and analysis on the Levant and Geopolitics as a whole. All opinions are my own, RT and Quote Tweets do not mean endorsement

Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
Joined March 2024
My geopolitical predictions and analysis for 2026: 1. 110 years after Sykes-Picot we are facing a new project called the United Abrahamic States with its goal of partitioning existing countries based on sectarian and ethnic lines. The project is based on Israeli hegemony through occupation of land and natural resources. 2. Uprisings in Syria that will do more then spark annexation talks, a alawite state on the coast a durzi state in the south and a Kurdish state in the north. The momentum of annexation will spread to other countries forcing unusual alliances to form. 3. A youth movement in the Middle East. Leadership changes in Bahrain and Jordan. Hussein ibn Abdullah will be crowned king. Turkey will have a new president. 4. The rivalry between the UAE and Saudi Arabia will reach Saudi Arabia, MBS will face his biggest challenges internally after the death of Salman, and we may see a Ritz Carlton 2.0 5. 3 governments in Yemen 6. Attempts at destabilizing the regime in Egypt with fingers pointed towards the Muslim brotherhood. Protests and chants form but in my opinion won’t succeed. The deployment of the Egyptian military and its navy across Africa. 7. Nuclear and Intercontinental Iran. 8. New governments in Lebanon and Palestine pave the way for reform. 9. Without stating the obvious there is no such thing as a ceasefire. 10. Geological and financial crisis worldwide.
Leaving this post here to revisit throughout the year. These are just predictions of the Middle East based on analysis. 1) We will use the word “replaced” more than word “elected” when it comes to leadership across the middle east. We will find it hard to distinguish between revolutions and coups. Families that were in power before will resurface in the news in countries such as Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Palestine and yes even Syria. 2) The hysteria that the Muslim world used in regard to Wilayat Al Fakih will now shift to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood especially in Egypt and Jordan. 3) Unfortunately the same images that we saw in Beirut and the Dahya we could see in Sanaa Yemen. 4) The existential threat that the factions in Gaza used to launch October 7th will be used to launch a similar operation in the West Bank. 5) Iran will face its biggest test internally and will lead to it exerting its force externally. 6) Repeat of True Promise but this time in Lebanon. 7) After a brief scare of civil war adversaries in Lebanon and Palestine will put differences aside and rule together. 8) The prisoners that were promised to be released from Palestine will be released including Al Bargouthi. 9) Fist fights turn into hand shakes between Iran and the gulf countries. 10) The war in Lebanon in certain areas isn’t over.
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MECCA AVENGERS ASSEMBLE!
MASSIVE Explosion in Idlib, Syria turned the night into day Initial reports say this is a weapons depot that was hit.
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For the conspiracy theorists and defeatists Oil is at 116 There’s a tanker burning in the Basra port Ansarallah fired more missiles towards Saudi territories. Don’t get too drunk on the copium it’s not a good look.
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•هالصيصان شو حلوين •عم بيدوروا حول أمهن مبسوطين
إجتماع رباعي إيراني تركي سعودي باكستاني.. والعزاء ببعبدا ومعراب والصيفي 😭😭😭
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Guess who signed up 😂😂
Finally found who intercepted the F-35
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The stupidity of some on here is honestly impressive
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I swear I was told by Bessent and Trump that Iran was isolated.
Video of the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey Meeting
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The Egyptian Parliament approves the request to provide military support for Saudi Arabia.
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This meeting could have just been an email. The 3 arrived on a Monday to manipulate oil prices which is already happening as of this morning. The war on Yemen won’t end unless the blockade is lifted, and the strait will not (should not) be opened even if temporarily until the 7 conditions are met with the end of all regional wars at the top of the list. I am not opposed to a regional security architecture that ensures cooperation amongst the countries of the region for mutual defense and economic development, however it’s still immature to achieve this goal with the tension still in the region at its current state.
🇮🇷🇸🇦🇹🇷⚡️- Iran's Supreme National Security Council is holding a meeting in Tehran, Iran, with the Saudi Defense Minister, Pakistani Army Chief, and Turkish Intelligence Chief. Iran describes the meeting as an “Iranian-led initiative toward building stability and peace in the region.”
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Channel 12 (Israel): Timeline for the Day After the Elections: When Will the Israeli Government Be Formed? - October 27th: Date of the Israeli elections for the 26th Knesset, with most polling stations closing at 10:00 PM. - November 4th: Expected date for the official announcement of the final election results, eight days after the vote. - Up to November 11th: The President, Isaac Herzog, must task one of the Knesset members with forming the government within one week of the official announcement of the results. - 28 Days to Form the Government: The leading candidate is given a 28-day period to form the government. The President can extend this period by up to an additional 14 days, making the total deadline 42 days. - Failure of the Leading Candidate: If the leading candidate fails to form the government, they can request to be re-tasked by the President, who will then consult with the parties for up to three days. After that, the President can task another candidate, who will be given 28 days. - Alternative Path with Support of 61 Knesset Members: The President can return the task to the Knesset. If another candidate receives the recommendation of 61 members, they will be given a 14-day period to form the government. - Failure to Form the Government: If no candidate is able to form the government within the specified deadlines, the 26th Knesset will be dissolved, and "Israel" will head to new elections. - When Does the Government Begin Its Work? After its formation is complete, the government is presented to the Knesset to present its program, composition, and distribution of ministerial portfolios, and then it requests a vote of confidence from the parliament. The term of the Prime Minister and ministers officially begins after the vote of confidence. - Until the New Government is Formed: The outgoing government continues to perform its duties as a caretaker government.
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The duration could indicate an evacuation operation however let’s just assume and go with the general narrative that it was a Saudi request for mediations with Ansarallah. The Iranians have been in lock step with the leadership in Sanaa since 2015 and have gone back to the 4 point plan that was submitted to the United Nations from 2015 to 2017. 1. Immediate Ceasefire: An end to all foreign military attacks, airstrikes, and land/air operations by the Saudi-led coalition. 2. Humanitarian Assistance: Unhindered delivery of medical and humanitarian aid to the people of Yemen. 3. Intra-Yemeni Dialogue: A resumption of inclusive national dialogue among all Yemeni factions without foreign pre-conditions. 4. Broad-Based Government: The establishment of an inclusive national unity government representing all parties in Yemen. Tehran has expressed its willingness to mediate amongst the 2 but has said ultimately the decision is Sanaa’s.
The MYSTERIOUS Saudi Arabia Plane has LEFT Iran after a 90 Minute Visit One funny story I am reading is people are saying they are sending Iran money to avoid being targeted in the next round of fighting. I doubt this is true.
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Yeah this is a load of bullshit, just like the Trump had a falling out with Netanyahu before the 12 day war
🚨INCREDIBLE breaking C12: IDF chief of staff has received a certain instruction from govt w regard to Iran. Details of request remains classified but Zamir responded by formally requesting (the seemingly lacking) "thorough discussion, a written order and legal assurances."
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“Everything is so trivial compared to the existential threat of Iran and the Shiite axis.”
תקראו את הדברים החשובים של יובל בלומברג: מדינת ישראל נמצאת בסכנה קיומית אמיתית ומוחשית. אם האיראנים ישיגו גרעין, שום דבר כבר לא ישנה יותר. הכל כל כך טפל אל מול הסכנה הקיומית של איראן והציר השיעי. הסערות המבוימות והמומצאות חדשות לבקרים נועדו להסיט את תשומת הלב מהדבר האחד שהוא החשוב ביותר: סיום העבודה באיראן. זה נוגע בקיום הפיזי של כל אדם ואדם כאן. יש לנו עוד שנתיים של טראמפ לסיים את העבודה באיראן, ואין לדעת מה יהיה לאחר מכן, אם זו תהיה קמאלה האריס, או תואם מאמדני כלשהו. זה חלון הזמן שנותר לנו כדי להשלים את העבודה הנדרשת כדי להבטיח את הקיום הפיזי שלנו לשנים הבאות. כל משאבי המדינה הנדרשים, צריכים להיות מושקעים במשימה הזו. קטאר, חרדים, אוריך, גיוס, התראות. הכל מסך עשן ענקי כדי להסתיר את הנושא היחיד שניצב מעל כולם בפער. אם יפלו במרכז הארץ שתי פצצות אטום, את מי יעניינו כל סערות הסרק האלה? הדורות הבאים לא יסלחו לנו אם נפספס את חלון ההזדמנויות ההיסטורי שמאפשר לנו לנסות ולהשלים את המשימה הקריטית ביותר שעומדת בפני הדור שלנו. זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שמוחזק בצווארו על ידי האחים המוסלמים וסייעני הטרור. זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שלא מסוגל להרים את הטלפון ולנהל שיחה אינטימית רציפה עם טראמפ. זה לא יקרה עם ראש ממשלה שלא מסוגל לעמוד בלחץ של ראיון טלויזיה. השינאה לנתניהו, ככל שהיא עולם ומלואו עבור מחנה שלם, לא תעזור מול הגרעין האיראני. כל אחד שדואג לקיום הפיזי שלו, של משפחתו, ושל אהוביו, ידו צריכה לרעוד לפני שהוא בוחר במישהו שלא יהיה מסוגל להשלים את המשימה, ובכך לדון את עצמו ואת משפחתו לסכנה של שואה שניה, בגלל השינאה הפוליטית שלו או בגלל סערת דמה מטופשת וחסרת חשיבות.
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Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi “If we close the borders with Iran-we’ll be besieging ourselves (Iraq) not Iran”
Iraq will begin gradually closing its border crossings with Iran on Wednesday, Oct. 21, starting with the al-Sheib crossing in Maysan governorate, under directives from Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, APA reports. Told you.
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Say Wallah 😂
مصادر العربية: إيران تعرض على أميركا فتح مضيق هرمز مقابل رفع الحصار البحري وتبلغ باكستان أنها منفتحة على استئناف المفاوضات ========== مصادر العربية: 🔴 إيران تقدم عرضا للإدارة الأميركية عبر باكستان 🔴 عرض إيران يتضمن فتح مضيق هرمز مقابل رفع الحصار الأميركي عن موانئها 🔴 إيران أبلغت باكستان أنها منفتحة على استئناف المفاوضات مع أميركا
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👀😏
Bazan Oil Refinery Haifa-and Ashdod Paz Oil Company (Paz Retail and Energy) Delek Group NewMed Energy Sorek Desalination Plant, located in Rishon LeZion (south of Tel Aviv The Kirya-Downtown Tel Aviv
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Oil exports that have been able to bypass the strait of Hormuz through shadow tankers have primarily relied on the UAE and in particular the port of Fujairah. For Oil to bypass the 125 dollars a barrel mark, the operations at this port have to be disrupted and I don’t believe we’re that far away from this happening.
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The 4 factions of the Islamic resistance of Iraq announces it will join the upcoming war In light of the complex circumstances facing the country and the region, and the continued crimes committed by the Zionist-American enemy against the people of our nation, we emphasize the importance of the following: First: The American enemy continues to violate Iraqi sovereignty and renege on its declared commitments to the government. A documented (171) airspace violations were recorded, carried out by fighter and reconnaissance aircraft, during the period from September 30th to October 23rd of this year. This constitutes a blatant violation of existing agreements and the obligations they entail, and a clear contradiction of the duties imposed on all parties. This places the government in a moral obligation to be transparent with the Iraqi people about what is happening. Second: The decisions to close airports and border crossings with the Islamic Republic of Iran are decisions dictated by American will and directives. Talk about achieving (national sovereignty) while these violations and the disregard for national decisions continue, is an affront to the dignity and free will of our people. How can we speak of the sovereignty of a state whose decisions are restricted from the outside, thereby reinforcing American hegemony and strengthening its influence at the expense of national decision-making independence? Third: Standing with the front of righteousness against the forces of evil is a duty imposed by sound human nature. The aggression against the Islamic Republic by the Zionist-American enemy represents the reality of the war between the camps of right and wrong. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq October 24, 2026
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The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth: In three days, approximately 7.3 million eligible Israeli voters will head to the polls. Polls suggest that neither party has the ability to form a government, which could make a re-election necessary. Most polls, whether published by major television channels or conducted by the parties themselves, indicate this possibility. They also point out that significant changes could occur in the results depending on the voter turnout and the number of votes that parties failing to meet the electoral threshold might lose. Furthermore, any last-minute developments or backtracking by party leaders on their statements and commitments, as has happened in the past, could also influence the outcome.
The Israeli newspaper Maariv: If Netanyahu wins the elections, he will not have a political need to attack Iran. And if the leader of the "Yesh Atid" party, Gadi Eisenkot, emerges victorious, Netanyahu will not be able to order an attack during the transitional period that precedes the formation of a new right-wing government, according to political sources. These sources stated that the military leadership is expected to explain to him that he lacks the necessary legal and political support.
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The Israeli newspaper Maariv: If Netanyahu wins the elections, he will not have a political need to attack Iran. And if the leader of the "Yesh Atid" party, Gadi Eisenkot, emerges victorious, Netanyahu will not be able to order an attack during the transitional period that precedes the formation of a new right-wing government, according to political sources. These sources stated that the military leadership is expected to explain to him that he lacks the necessary legal and political support.
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