Markets connoisseur, ponzinomics scholar, liquidity provider when convenient. CIO East India Trading Company.
Joined February 2021
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$DNA - I'm not sure if this is it, but I'm confident there WILL be massive excitement (and a subsequent bubble) around AI drug discovery. LLMs + autonomous labs seems like a way to really accelerate the drug discovery process. Ginkgo is undergoing a big pivot, but is now mainly focusing on autonomous labs - you can buy their RAC product to create your own autonomous lab or hook up your LLM to their existing lab, like OpenAI recently did. $600M market cap is tiny if this has real legs imo.
Can someone explain how $NOPMF trades at $589M market cap, as the only rare earth magnet production facility at scale in Europe? They're at 2k metric tons annually rn w plans to get to 5k, w long term goal much higher.
For comparison, $MP is aiming to get to 10k annually and trades $11.9B. $USAR is aiming for 5-10k annually and trades $5.3B, USAR is way behind where NOPMF is rn tho.
Current market cap puts them below many other speculative rare earth plays like $CRML $METC $NB etc even tho NOPMF is already operational.
$EH received clearance this weekend to begin tourism flights
Not to be dramatic but this has 50x potential over next few years imo
$EH China's leading autonomous air taxi company. Finally breaking out on China tailwinds, expect it to get more attention as already received necessary approvals and is beginning operations.
$BA Jan26 200C 6.20.. 2nd straight month of solid delivery numbers, I think the worst is behind them, not sure why the like 20% selloff over last couple weeks but helps the entry, almost bought at 180 anyways
$EH China's leading autonomous air taxi company. Finally breaking out on China tailwinds, expect it to get more attention as already received necessary approvals and is beginning operations.
Zyn is prob one of biggest consumer trends today, it's owner $PM reports tomorrow am, calls are pretty cheap (rightfully so, it doesn't move much), but maybe time for a repricing?
$PM added Jan27 150C 6.60 and 160C 4.78
New Zyn factory coming online next year, think we're headed to $200
I think that was the top in risk assets
Seasonality lines up (year end run up), major froth across board in crypto and quantum/AI/meme stocks, buy rumor/sell news Trump presidency, record high valuations. Many other top signals. Don’t need to hit sell all, would want to be in names you actually like long term tho.
$MSTR Jan27 $30P for 4.05, Jun26 $30P 2.50
I think this is a decent way to play the MicroStrategy issuing equity/converts to buy all the btc charade eventually imploding, gives you 2+ years time and fixed downside.
Even if the equity doesn't trade to 0 in this time frame, I do think there will at least be a moment where investors seriously entertain the possibility and the premium in deep OTM puts blows out. I also think its decently likely we see $MSTR trade at a discount rather than a premium to their $BTC holdings, as future share issuance and possible liquidation is a risk rather than a luxury.
My map turned out pretty accurate, just missed NH and ME.
A little annoying bc thesis was that the large swings I anticipated in states like NJ (+12 swing) CT (+9) VA (+5), altho not large enough to flip their own state, would be exacerbated in NH and ME and sufficient to carry it for Trump. Clearly electorate has moved (more than I realized) further left here in recent years.
Polling, early vote, voter registration data were all pretty accurate and stayed true - nothing really suggested a close race, people were just afraid to believe it. Or instead chose to believe one outlier poll (Selzer).
For fun, I did an interactive electoral college map. Here's the rest of my thoughts on why I think Trump wins rather handedly:
1. Polling - Trump is polling better in every single swing state. He outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020 and I expect him to do so again. Pollsters even noted that Dems are more likely to respond than Reps (by ~15% margin), which suggests they may, once again, be underestimating Trump.
2. Early voting - This is prob the biggest tell for me. 2020 nationwide EV was 44-34 Dems, it is currently 36-34 Dems. The shift is clearly seen in pivotal swing states as well. Many points have been made that this is because of a shift in Trump pushing people to vote early, which is likely to true to a degree, but I don't think it is that dramatic of a shift. GOP will still outperform Dems on election day as well.
3. Voter registration - changes in party registration have clearly trended towards GOP over last couple years, this was evident in October registrations as well. @WinWithJMC has good data regarding this.
4. In 2020, I expected Biden to win pretty easily, he barely won. Given the state of the country with issues like immigration, geopolitics, inflation, as well as Harris not being as popular as Biden imo, I have a v hard time seeing Harris outperform what Biden did in 2020.
Regarding my map, I think Trump has v real chance at carrying NH and ME. Trump narrowly (by .3%) lost NH in 2016 to Clinton. The Maine student mock election has Trump by an 11% margin, this is almost an exact flip from 2020.
teapawt.net/JgaltTweets/stat…
I think GA NC NV are pretty safely Trump. PA Trump by like 3%. WI narrowly Trump, MI pretty close to toss up. MN surprises but stays Harris by 2-3%, same w VA but could see a Trump win. I think states like DE CT IL NJ move a lot to the right but don't quite get there, DE would be my longshot flier if I had to choose (Biden's hometown state and they booted him) and why I put it light blue.
Here's some stocks to think about, also v important to consider how Senate/House play out imo, a clean sweep in either direction and you may get some massive moves.
$CPRI $SAVE are good Trump plays here imo w call options not too pricey, as a Trump win forces a re-think of regulatory environment.
$GEO $CXW are also off quite a bit over last few days and have decent upside from here, plenty of downside too tho.
$FSLR $SEDG $ENPH lots of upside here if Harris wins.
$UNH either way (especially on a sweep).
$KRE $LYV $FXI (China) $DJT (prob sell the news either way) are others to watch/play. Not sure how to play the weed names, objectively Harris would be better.
For fun, I did an interactive electoral college map. Here's the rest of my thoughts on why I think Trump wins rather handedly:
1. Polling - Trump is polling better in every single swing state. He outperformed polls in 2016 and 2020 and I expect him to do so again. Pollsters even noted that Dems are more likely to respond than Reps (by ~15% margin), which suggests they may, once again, be underestimating Trump.
2. Early voting - This is prob the biggest tell for me. 2020 nationwide EV was 44-34 Dems, it is currently 36-34 Dems. The shift is clearly seen in pivotal swing states as well. Many points have been made that this is because of a shift in Trump pushing people to vote early, which is likely to true to a degree, but I don't think it is that dramatic of a shift. GOP will still outperform Dems on election day as well.
3. Voter registration - changes in party registration have clearly trended towards GOP over last couple years, this was evident in October registrations as well. @WinWithJMC has good data regarding this.
4. In 2020, I expected Biden to win pretty easily, he barely won. Given the state of the country with issues like immigration, geopolitics, inflation, as well as Harris not being as popular as Biden imo, I have a v hard time seeing Harris outperform what Biden did in 2020.
Regarding my map, I think Trump has v real chance at carrying NH and ME. Trump narrowly (by .3%) lost NH in 2016 to Clinton. The Maine student mock election has Trump by an 11% margin, this is almost an exact flip from 2020.
teapawt.net/JgaltTweets/stat…
I think GA NC NV are pretty safely Trump. PA Trump by like 3%. WI narrowly Trump, MI pretty close to toss up. MN surprises but stays Harris by 2-3%, same w VA but could see a Trump win. I think states like DE CT IL NJ move a lot to the right but don't quite get there, DE would be my longshot flier if I had to choose (Biden's hometown state and they booted him) and why I put it light blue.
Here's some stocks to think about, also v important to consider how Senate/House play out imo, a clean sweep in either direction and you may get some massive moves.
$CPRI $SAVE are good Trump plays here imo w call options not too pricey, as a Trump win forces a re-think of regulatory environment.
$GEO $CXW are also off quite a bit over last few days and have decent upside from here, plenty of downside too tho.
$FSLR $SEDG $ENPH lots of upside here if Harris wins.
$UNH either way (especially on a sweep).
$KRE $LYV $FXI (China) $DJT (prob sell the news either way) are others to watch/play. Not sure how to play the weed names, objectively Harris would be better.
