The D-R split is almost identical in the EV compared to 2022. IND/NP early vote is up a whopping 59% from this point in 2022. And Rob is polling consistently ahead by 30%+ with independents. Impossible to spin this Lahn’s way you unless they have better internal IND numbers.

16000 voted in the primary but hardly any of them voted early

Iowa Early Voting Update 10/25: I wanted to jump into Iowa since I had not yet. Basically what we are seeing is something between 2022 and 2024. Democrats are doing better than 2024, but worse than 2022 (reverse that for Republicans). The other change is that Independents have more share this year, which in the early vote likely will benefit Democrats more in the early vote. That being said, the early vote is typically much less of the overall vote especially in midterms. Using 2022 as an example, the early vote was about 30%, where in 2024 it was about 40%. For example, Democrats win the early vote (in 2022 they won it about 60-40%) and Republicans win the election day vote (in 2022 they won it 63%-37%). Those %'s might change this year but it gives a decent idea into how things typically go with the early vote to election day vote. It seems like with where we are right now, Iowa will end up with a higher early vote (and total) than 2022. Rs will continue to chip away at the registration lead this week that Ds have so far, but expect Dems to win have about a 13% lead (give or take) by the end of early voting. What will be essential is to see how many Rs come out on Election Day. That is where these races will be won or lost for Rs. The other large question here is how are independents splitting? We will only really know that when early votes drop (normally first) and we can see what splits are happening based on that. Republicans will want to keep swings down as much as possible. I do think we will see some increased ticket splitting in this state, whether or not that is enough for Zahn to overtake Sand...we will find out.