Economist, asset allocator (New York Life Investments), tea connoisseur. Views are my own. Likes & retweets are not endorsements.
New York, NY
Joined September 2022
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Happy #Fed week, everyone. Given unrelenting focus on #inflation risk, we expect a final 25 bps this week. What could upset that view? FOMC gets senior bank loan survey data before the meeting... and before we bystanders. If we get a surprise, that data will be why...
Check out this twitter spaces conversation at 2pm EST with myself, @JuliaCHermann & @Macro_Mike_. After years of unanticipated risks, we did some thought work around what might disrupt consensus in 2023. Full piece is here: newyorklifeinvestments.com/a…
teapawt.net/i/spaces/1YqxoAVBQBQGv
Why not spend an already uncertain year noodling what could disrupt it further? Super cool new disruptive risks piece out from my team: newyorklifeinvestments.com/a…
Central banking people: colleagues at @MacKayShields conducted groundbreaking research on whether Fed programs have permanently repriced credit. Takeaways (so far): the Fed put is dead, but euro area credit appears repriced. Stellar convo here: buzzsprout.com/942931/119143…
Lauren Goodwin retweeted
Join our #webinar as macroeconomics pundits from @BNYMellon, @NYLInvestments and @MacKayShields discuss the potential for a very different business cycle in 2023, including prospects for a #Fed pivot.
Register here: ow.ly/EOEq50MamBu
Black swan alert. Too soon to tell, but we just put together our list of risks that could break consensus in 2023. Yesterday, the #BoJ beat us to it. Here is an excerpt from our piece, discussing what materialized today and exploring the ripple effects it may have.
For those coming in from spaces, our 2023 Outlook & recession playbook is here: newyorklifeinvestments.com/i…
Powell just punched back with the numbers. "19 people filled out the SEP, and 17 expect a terminal rate above 5.0%". Of course, we're parsing basis points here. To me, what's more important is how long we stay at that terminal rate. But he's doing his best to signal hawkishness.
Markets don't believe the Fed can get there, by the way... curve pricing points to a terminal rate below 5.0%
I was watching a few factors in today's Fed materials to gauge how to read it. Looks straight ticket hawkish to me.
Lauren Goodwin retweeted
"I'm going to be looking for a couple of very specific things out of tomorrow to determine whether the [Fed] policy path ahead has shifted as a result of today's CPI report," says @NYLInvestments' Lauren Goodwin.
Here's what Lauren's keeping her eye on:
I don't typically use Twitter as an interview hub but this one from yesterday was one of my favorites ever. Thanks @JonErlichman for the stellar questions. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/despit…
As we look ahead to 2023, one thing appears certain: this cycle will look very different from the last. Investors’ allocations may need to shift in response. Here we share some all-weather strategies and our high-conviction ideas for as the cycle turns. newyorklifeinvestments.com/i…
Even for this DC alum, our latest Market Matters guests dropped some serious policy knowledge. SO much fun. Thanks for joining, ladies. @JenGShapiro @JuliaCHermann Listen here or wherever you pod: buzzsprout.com/942931/117134…
Headed into @CNBC to talk stocks with @ScottWapnerCNBC. It’s been a quarter of transition equities - top line still strong, but slowing and with increasing bottom line pressure.
Easy to talk about #volatility these days - in either direction. Loved talking solutions with @JonErlichman yesterday + our views on crypto: bnnbloomberg.ca/the-open/fin…
