MAK

The benefit of @realDonaldTrump’s approach is that we now understand who are our preferred trading partners, and who the problems are. China has shown themselves to be a bad actor. Our counterparties also have a taste of what life is like if they don’t take down their trade barriers. This is the perfect setup for trade negotiations over the next 90 days. Advice for China: Pick up the phone and call the President. He is a tough but fair negotiator. The longer China holds out and retaliates, the worse the outcome for China.

Skeptics are attempting to discredit my views by making the case that I am conflicted or otherwise vulnerable to tariffs, a market crash or a correction, or that I have somehow positioned our portfolio to benefit from my recommended 90-day pause on the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. So for the record: 1. Neither I nor Pershing Square have any margin leverage or any other instrument or arrangement which will create liquidity issues for me or the funds we manage if the market crashes. None. We don’t use margin. Never have. Never will. 2. We have substantial cash on hand ready to be deployed from the recent sale of a large investment. 3. We have only one investment, Nike 3-year call options, that is directly affected by the tariffs, a position that represents 1.5% of our portfolio. 4. Unlike other asset managers, our capital base is more than 90% permanent so we are not exposed to redemptions from investors. 5. We own some of the greatest businesses in the world, which have durable growth models and extremely dominant franchises. 6. Our companies are well-capitalized, and to the extent they have debt, they have long-term, laddered maturities. All of the above said, we don’t short stocks and we have no hedges in place that would protect us from a self-inflicted market crash as we are long only. We will suffer mark-to-market losses if the market crashes, but we will not be sellers in a declining market. We will be buyers of great businesses at highly discounted prices which will benefit us and our investors over the long term. And our companies will likely be buying back their own shares which will increase their per-share, intrinsic values over the long term. Over the long term, we are exposed to the health of our country and its economy. This is my only investment ‘conflict’ if you want to call it that. I am one of the most fortunate people in the world for many reasons. With good fortune, I have an enormous responsibility to help our country and our citizens, and we have made substantial progress over the last 76 days. I don’t want to see a lot of progress get thrown out due to an unforced error. Those that did not vote for @realDonaldTrump want to see him fail and are rooting for a market crash, recession or worse so they can feel righteous in how they cast their vote. I have a lot of respect for our president and what he has accomplished so far, but I don’t think he is infallible, which is why I am stating loud and clear that I strongly believe launching tariffs on April 9th against the entire world — massively in excess of what we are being charged — is a mistake. The right answer in my view is a 90-day pause to give the president time to carefully and strategically resolve our historically unfair global trading position. That’s my view. Feel free to ignore it and unfollow me if you don’t like it or don’t care what I think.