@MatterOfStats

#rstats, maths, science, quirky stuff, and Aussie Rules football. @MatterOfStats@aus.social on mastodon @matterofstats.bsky.social on Bluesky

 Australia
bit.ly/matterstats
Joined February 2010
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"I would rather my team play exciting football even if it means that they lose a lot more games than they win"
24%True
76%False
51 votes • Final results
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Latest AFLW sims are up (now with two pretty new plots) matterofstats.com/aflw-1/202…

AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 11 — Matter of Stats

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below: For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the...

matterofstats.com
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It turns out that FMI Play AFLW scoring is intransitive in that it is possible, using the same forecasts and results, that Player A beats Player B, Player B beats Player C, but Player C beats Player A. There have been 1,227 example of this in the all-plays-all data this season
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... and if you include weakly intransitive examples (ie involving one or more draws), there are over 16,000 examples
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Your country might be great but does it follow Australia’s lead by colour-coordinating its currency with the nation’s favourite snack foods?
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WoSHBODS' R11 Results matterofstats.com/aflw-1/202…

AFLW 2026- Round 11 Results - Don't Give Start in the Rain — Matter of Stats

WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers tipped all 9 winners this week giving WoSHBODS 72% accuracy for the season. Its Margin MAE was 17.7 points per game, compared to 18.1 and 18.2 for the two bookmakers,...

matterofstats.com
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Lucky or unlucky in FMI AFLW?
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Tony Corke retweeted
Aaron Rupar
@atruparOct 23
this answer about what issues matter to him from a college student waiting in line at the Trump rally wasn't what the Fox correspondent expected to hear. She moved on with swiftness
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With one to play in FMI AFLW
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Records for teams leading by 12 points or more in the AFLW this season so far: At QT: 26-3 At HT: 51-6 At 3QT: 62-1
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Biggest deficits overcome in the AFLW this season so far: At QT: 17 points At HT: 24 points At 3QT: 12 points
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After Game 2 of FMI AFLW
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FMI AFLW after Game 1
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Think you can spot a fake men's AFL score worm? Try this and post your best scores matterofstats.com/inrunning-…

Synthetic Game Challenge — Matter of Stats

matterofstats.com
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Tony Corke retweeted
Sean@seanHPNOct 22
Being a Gold Coast resident enthusiastic about local sport.
J.\idyn 🇦🇺✋☝️@jaizc17Oct 22
Was just wondering today, what’s the worst (realistic) combination of Australian sports teams to support? In my opinion it has to be: St Kilda Melbourne Stars SEM Phoenix Western United/Melbourne Victory
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FMI AFLW pre-round estimates
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Memorable ... in their own way
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Local bakery has gone cash or PayID only. A trend?
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Tony Corke retweeted
Brian Burke@bburkeESPNOct 22
With all the talk about Kyle Shanahan's 51% comment, I want to take some time to walk through why a lot of the discussion yesterday was off the mark. I'm going to focus on just one of the points made--uncertainty. Thread:
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V/AFL teams that have trailed by 3 points at half time have a 5.6% point lower win rate (39.8% v 45.4%) than teams that trailed by 2 points @UselessStatsAFL
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There have been 47 V/AFL teams that have scored 13.5 to half time. None have lost. Also, there are no losers amongst 21 scoring 9.13 to half time 18 scoring 11.12 to half time 13 scoring 6.9 to QT 24 scoring 4.11 to QT 9 scoring 8.5 to QT @UselessStatsAFL
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