tracking datacenters and the politics & regulation shaping AI @semianalysis_

Joined January 2016
Dylan Patel @dylan522p of SemiAnalysis considers power as a manageable constraint compared to memory, substrate, and optics: "Power is definitely a big constraint, but one thing that our research sort of shows that I think is counterintuitive to much of the market is that next year there are data center constraints but a lot less than people realize because there are nearly 50GW data centers being built globally. 7-8GW in China, 35GW in the US, and a bunch everywhere else - Australia, India, Malaysia." "All over the world data centers are being built at a tremendous pace." "While power is a huge bottleneck, people can find creative ways around that, whether it be turbines on site, reciprocating engines on site, or fuel cells on site. All of these things are helping alleviate the power bottleneck." "As far as what people most people think, oh data centers and power are the biggest constraint? I think they are constraints but I think they are a lot less than substrates, memory, lasers, and other things in the optics supply chain." Via CASPA on YouTube $META $GEV $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $NBIS $CRWV
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Maya Barkin retweeted
Financial Times
@FTOct 21
According to security officials, pro-Russian and far-right social media accounts linked to previous disinformation campaigns have spread violent videos in an attempt to sow more chaos ft.trib.al/t4nxjpO
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SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_Oct 20
Is 50 GW in a single year too aggressive? "Dear Brad called us out publicly and cut our forecast in half." So Jeremie (@JeremieEO) and Reyk (@robotknower) came on with Jordan (@JordanNanos) to show their work. They go site by site from satellite and explain why haircutting the number double counts the delays already baked in. Plus moratoriums, 9-month modular builds, and why 2028 is the year to watch.
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Maya Barkin retweeted
🇩🇪 Nvidia's Jensen Huang CORNERED German Chancellor Merz on the old EU regulation playbook "I've also heard you say that you want to find that balance between innovation and regulation. There's nothing to regulate if the industry doesn't thrive." Europe keeps reaching for the rulebook before the companies even get off the ground. Writer: Lucas
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Maya Barkin retweeted
BBC News (World)
@BBCWorldOct 17
Brazil sees record fall in Amazon deforestation as key election looms bbc.in/4B8deRb
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Maya Barkin retweeted
SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_Oct 17
Moratoriums aren't killing the US datacenter buildout. Our analyst @mayabarkin finds only ~2.3 GW of ~21 GW in moratorium areas (excluding the TCEQ pause in Texas) is likely to be delayed, as cited in The Economist. For more, read her report in the SemiAnalysis newsletter👇️ newsletter.semianalysis.com/… xitter.cf/ArchieHall/status/2111…
A few reflections from travelling (w/ @ed_shackle, @sebwride++) through data-centre country in Michigan/Ohio in my latest for @TheEconomist. 1/ The issue really is moving votes to the Democrats. That's now visible in our polling, too (h/t @OwenWntr), but also in the scale of on-the-ground discontent. I'm quite a bit more bearish on the prospects for big new data-centre projects in blue states after the trip. 2/ I really didn't hear that much direct anti-AI sentiment. The mood much more was a cocktail of worries about local harms (water, electricity bills, house prices), plus a total distrust of businesses and politicians. Against that backdrop, assurances about the water usage of closed-loop cooling systems really don't cut through. And, though developers will doubtless get cannier at this, cash payoffs to communities can easily look like subterfuge and do little to help. 3/ Still, moratoriums are at this stage much more bark than bite (h/t @mayabarkin for the data there). Only about 2GW seems actually delayed. The bigger risk is deterring newer projects, but I'd still guess that affects the exact locations more than whether the build-out happens at all. 4/ The question I'm left with is what comes after data centres as the big AI political issue into next year. A few obvious candidates are: a big cyberattack, the sheer scale of AI-related PAC spending in the 2028 cycle, the early innings of job displacement. 5/ What the data-centre issue should tell us, I think, is that voters' hostility to new technologies that change their lives in unpleasant ways is vast—especially when those changes are less positive-sum than data centres. So, however mad you expect AI as a technology to make the next few years, scale that up accordingly to account for a much more scrambled politics. Do take a look at my piece on this here: economist.com/united-states/… And at our Checks and Balances podcast, where I contributed a short diary featuring lots of conversations with voters economist.com/podcasts/2026/…
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Maya Barkin retweeted
Our Moratoriums piece led by the DC Queen @mayabarkin talks about how it's entirely inaccurate that the rise in political backlash would somehow compromise the AI infra buildout. Our DCM Model forecasts +38 GW of Datacenter IT capacity delivered in the US in 2027, more than double that of 2026, and we believe that less than 10% is delayed due to local moratoriums and the New York’s executive order. The main issue here is the fact that many analysis of moratoriums out there haven't went into the granular-level of details, and it requires a parcel-level, project-by-project analysis, which SemiAnalysis did effectively. And, since the general DC buildout sentiment on the federal level is positive, we see little threat from moratoriums.
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Maya Barkin retweeted
Deleted Muse after seeing this post on Threads about how it told some Facebook Marketplace sellers the guy’s address and they showed up at his door Dangerous and creepy This would have been 1000x worse if the person was a woman
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Maya Barkin retweeted
SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_Sep 24
ORACLE DELAY🚨: We already said it in our energy model on May 29 and on our twitter on Jul 17.
We're starting to see some things *ORACLE SENDS FORCE MAJEURE NOTICE OVER NEW MEXICO DATA CENTER
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Maya Barkin retweeted
SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_Sep 22
The datacenter moratorium curve is rising. But where does the risk actually sit? (1/5)🧵
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What's happening in Germany is a political apocalypse. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, AfD racks up its second win. In Berlin, the successor party to the East German communists becomes the strongest party. Watch my live stream from earlier today on all this: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
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Good Morning from Germany, where voters have delivered a historic blow to the political mainstream. Merz’s CDU has been shut out of a state parliament for the first time in the Federal Republic’s history: just 4.9% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the far-right AfD won 38.2%. In Berlin, The anti-capitalist Left topped the poll w/25.7%. As Germany’s electorate polarises, pressure on Chancellor Merz is mounting and so is the risk that much-needed growth reforms are watered down or blocked altogether.
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Maya Barkin retweeted
SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_Sep 21
Neocloud is now an entire industry. The word was coined by a SemiAnalysis researcher. Some of the companies using it still have no idea. "Nobody believes me when I say that. I'll tell people externally, yeah, we're the ones who invented the word, and they're like, No, you didn't. I'm like, Yeah, great." "This guy didn't know us at all. He was like, Cool man, what do you guys do? I'm like, What the f**k? We invented your entire industry."
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Maya Barkin retweeted
Replying to @OracleNYSE
Brother, we literally didn’t say this lol
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Maya Barkin retweeted
SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_Sep 16
While everyone worries that moratoriums are killing the datacenter buildout, Elon already knew the game. Now, SpaceX is no longer subject to the Brownsville moratorium. Why? Read the article for a full breakdown on moratorium mechanisms, and why they’re impacting far less than you think! (1/2)🧵
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Maya Barkin retweeted
Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday. What I should have said: There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this. On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way. On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project. On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns. On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians. On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers. 
On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries. On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land. Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged. When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America. I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw. Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.
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Maya Barkin retweeted
SemiAnalysis
@SemiAnalysis_May 7
After months of no progress, several long-paused Microsoft self-build campuses are finally showing signs of life. Conover, North Carolina broke ground in Q1 2026 after an extended pause. Chase City, Virginia showed what appears to be construction activity in the same quarter. Castroville, Texas is also showing early signs of movement after more than a year with little visible progress. Pictured: Microsoft’s campus in Conover, North Carolina (April 2026) (1/3)🧵
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