‘Defender of medical marijuana, the biblical Satan as a metaphor for rebellion against tyranny, and motherf***king goddamn cryptocurrency.’ - Gilfoyle
Orlando, FL
Joined November 2009
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My belief in the future of #blockchaintechnology is so strong that I left my role with Disney, a Fortune 500 company, to begin a career working alongside the brilliant minds @DraperGorenHolm , identifying and promoting the best #DApp #Projects in the world. Here’s to the future!
Matt Boseo retweeted
The loudest opponents of Bitcoin seem to be those who either missed it, dismissed it, or sold it early, and each of them appear to be driven by nothing more than painful regret.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Saying there’s no reason to buy Bitcoin because anyone can create a cryptocurrency is like saying there’s no reason to learn English because anyone can invent a language.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Given where $BTC is positioned, I think it’s worth reposting my view on bull market retracements this cycle.
Last cycle, the largest drawdown before the run to 126K was 22% based on a 77% bear market. With a 54% bear market drawdown this cycle, that points to a 10–15% retracement.
We’re already down 10% from the highs, so we could be nearing the end of this pullback before the next leg higher.
Do as you wish with this information.. I’ve been one of the few to catch this entire move up. Publicly.
Last bear market, $BTC dropped 78%.
This bear market dropped 54%. Significantly less aggressive.
Last cycle, once the bull market began, the largest retracements before Bitcoin reached its ATH were 20-22%. BTC never pulled back more than 22% on its entire run to ATH.
If we apply the same proportional logic to this cycle, a less severe bear market should also lead to less severe bull market pullbacks. That puts the larger retracements this cycle in roughly the 10-15% region.
Mathematically, that means buying retracements with 4x leverage should be relatively safe throughout the move toward 126K, provided you are not blindly longing the top of every candle (even if you did, you still wouldn't get liquidated on 4x).
If you are entering on actual pullbacks rather than chasing, you can be more aggressive with leverage where the setup allows it.
My point is simple... this cycle’s retracements are likely to be shallower than past cycles. Be prepared for that.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Step 1: Degenerate traders pile into bitcoin with excessive leverage and hopes of generating lottery-sized returns.
Step 2: Hedge fund traders flush bitcoin to the downside, causing 100% losses for degenerate leveraged traders while cleaning up on short side.
Step 3: Bitcoin stabilizes and begins to recover, tempting degenerate traders with thoughts of trying again: “It’ll work this time, I’m certain of it. It’s a lock.”
Step 4: Repeat step 1.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Good evening.
The market sometimes has a funny way of dismissing long-term conviction and reacting to short-term price action instead. If you believe that governments will swiftly and miraculously solve long-term debt and deficit issues, then by all means, sell the assets that protect you against the alternative. I personally do not believe they will solve any of it and that they will continue to paper over the problems with expanded liquidity and debt instead. And so, my conviction remains.
Have a great night.
Matt Boseo retweeted
$BTC AT $81.6K: THE SETUP IS TURNING BULLISH.
My derivatives model analyzed 930 Bitcoin options contracts.
• 35.6% implied volatility vs. 24.8% realized. Traders are paying up for protection.
• 2.5% annualized funding. Leveraged longs aren't crowded.
• $80K major put concentration.
• $90K largest call concentration.
• −$117M estimated dealer gamma exposure. Potential for amplified moves if positioning confirms.
The bullish case: Fear is elevated, leverage is subdued, and the options structure could amplify an upside move.
If spot demand strengthens, Bitcoin could move higher quickly without a crowded leveraged-long trade to unwind.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Mid day report:
Following the Kospi lower, the Nasdaq drop held and got bigger.
NQ went from −1.63% pre-market to −2.39% (29,288.75), below VWAP and its opening range, on 1.11x normal volume, and semis (SMH) fell 5.16%.
BUT, the equal-weight S&P (RSP) flipped to +0.12% while SPY was down 1.25%, which looks like money rotating out of the AI trade rather than a broad sell-off.
The oil spike faded and energy stocks reversed.
WTI dropped from +2.79% pre-market to +1.03%, giving back about 63% of the overnight gain. The energy ETF (XLE) went from +1.13% to −2.52%.
Bonds held their rally and added to it. The 10-year yield is down 13.5 bp to 5.011%.
Big single-stock reversals include BX (−4.55% to +5.72%), ROL (−7.17% to +5.68%) and IBM, which climbed back from −4.06% to −0.71% on 11.7x volume.
Crypto sold off with the AI trade today and is holding near its lows.
As of 11:29 AM , Bitcoin is at 81,448, down 3.07% from its 8 PM ET reference price of 84,030. It's below VWAP on thin volume (0.65x normal), and it has slipped under its 50-day average (81,785) even though the longer trend is still up. It's also sitting just 0.08% above the 81,380 bottom of its 10-day closing range, with chart support at 80,473 after that.
Ether fell 3.14% to 2,394, just under its own 10-day range low of 2,400. Both printed bearish engulfing candles. SOL and XRP are down between 2.5% and 3.4%.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Good morning.
Today is one of those days that brings the market nothing but fear, uncertainty and doubt at every turn. Keep your discipline, try not to react.
And have a great day.
Matt Boseo retweeted
The problem with gold is that once a supply vulnerability is discovered, you can’t patch the bug.
Some see quantum as a threat to Bitcoin, but Bitcoin can upgrade before or even after that threat materializes.
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Last month, we demonstrated high-rate alchemy: turning mercury into real, stable gold, beating CERN’s record by a factor of 10.
Last week, we enriched isotopes in the world’s most powerful plasma centrifuge, beating the Soviet record that stood for 40 years.
Now, we’re building a fusion reactor in San Francisco to achieve record power density.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Bitcoin hashrate is back in an uptrend, with miners running at full capacity.
Higher hashrate means stronger security and better fundamentals as a store of value.
Public miners are backed by TradFi giants. This is an indirect bullish signal from institutional investors, imo.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Internet is in shambles, websites coming down after PHP disaster, AI exploiting everything, Chinese and Asian stocks crashing, oil at cycle highs, war escalating, French yields parabolic etc…
And Bitcoin is just kinda hanging out in the 80s, doing its own thing...
Matt Boseo retweeted
Korea dumped again overnight.
KOSPI -3.5%, SK Hynix -5.7%, Samsung -4.2%.
Sounds scary. BUT context matters.
KOSPI is running about 3.4x as volatile as the Nasdaq, so -3.5% in Seoul is roughly a 1% day in Nasdaq terms.
It's now ~39% off its June high, giving back more than HALF of a two-year run.
Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures are down 1.7% THIS morning. Volatility-adjusted, the US is selling off HARDER than the canary.
Could be an interesting morning…
Matt Boseo retweeted
bitcoin:native rallying this morning.
Trading now in the middle of the range between $80k and $87k where it has chopped wood for the last month.
The local high remains ~$87,380 installed exactly one month ago on Sep. 21.
Matt Boseo retweeted
Well, well, well...
Looks like a bearish retest to me. The structure is confirming a breakdown from 1D/1W resistance, with USDT.D still in a macro downtrend while $BTC remains in a macro uptrend.
We retested the BOS, formed yet another lower high, and now the structure is pointing towards a corrective move lower in USDT.D, which would mean further upside for BTC.
Let’s see if we can keep this trajectory. Trend is your friend.
Study January 2024 $BTC
This is one of the most important charts to watch.
USDT.D remains in a significant macro downtrend and is now making its first major retest of that BOS, the exact same playbook we saw last cycle.
