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Why the Current Standoff Between the United States and Iran cannot last. There are several reasons why the current situation cannot continue for much longer: First, the American naval blockade may be effective, but it is important to distinguish between effectiveness and success. There is little doubt that the blockade has caused significant economic damage to Iran. But the purpose of the blockade is not simply to hurt the Iranian economy. It is supposed to force Tehran to change its position. So far, there is little indication that this is happening. If Iran continues to refuse American demands despite the economic pressure, then Washington will eventually have to acknowledge that the blockade is not achieving its strategic objective. The United States cannot maintain such an expensive operation indefinitely simply because it is causing economic pain. Second, there is a fundamental misunderstanding in Washington about the Iranian leadership. These are not people who are going to surrender because the United States threatens them with another military campaign or imposes additional economic pressure. For the Iranian leadership, this confrontation is about much more than the nuclear program. It is about the survival of the Islamic Republic and its ability to resist what it sees as American attempts to dictate its policies. The leadership in Tehran is deeply committed to the principle that Iran cannot be seen as surrendering to American pressure. In their view, making concessions under military threats would only encourage Washington to demand more in the future. Third, the cost of maintaining the current situation is becoming increasingly problematic for the United States. The American military presence in the region, the naval blockade, the protection of shipping routes, and the need to respond to Iranian actions all require enormous resources. At the same time, high oil prices are creating additional economic and political pressures. Trump may be willing to sustain these costs for a limited period, particularly if he believes that Iran is close to making concessions. But what happens if Tehran continues to refuse? How long can the administration justify maintaining this level of military pressure without achieving a clear political result? Does Trump has the patience to continue this approach indefinitely? Fourth, Iran has no intention of accepting a situation in which its oil exports are restricted while the rest of the Gulf continues exporting oil without interruption. This is one of the reasons Tehran has been willing to threaten shipping and energy infrastructure in the region. The Iranians want Washington to understand that the blockade will not be a one-sided affair. If Iran pays a heavy economic price, others will pay a price as well. Fifth, the nuclear issue itself makes the current situation even more dangerous. The absence of an agreement means that there is no stable diplomatic framework for addressing Iran's nuclear activities. Iran may continue rebuilding capabilities damaged during previous military operations, and the longer the confrontation continues, the greater the possibility that elements within the Iranian leadership will question whether the country's existing deterrence strategy is sufficient. Continued military pressure could strengthen the argument that only a nuclear deterrent can guarantee the survival of the Islamic Republic. This would be a particularly troubling outcome for an American strategy that is supposed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Sixth, Washington is gradually running out of attractive options. If the United States allows Iran to continue challenging freedom of navigation and threatening regional energy infrastructure without responding, American deterrence could suffer. But if Washington decides to launch another military campaign, it may find itself in a conflict that is far more difficult to end than to begin. Finally, the current situation is not a stable arrangement that can be maintained for months or years without serious consequences. The blockade is costly, Iran is not surrendering, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and the risk of a military incident or miscalculation is growing. Iran will not accept the current situation indefinitely. Tehran will continue to escalate its activities against U.S. interests, and sooner or later, Washington may find itself compelled to respond with overwhelming force. But most important question that the Trump administration needs to seriously to ask is What happens if Iran refuses to surrender and the Iranian people do not take to the streets? #IranWar #iran

Washington and Jerusalem Have Learned the Wrong Lessons from Their Wars with Iran I regret to say that neither the United States nor Israel appears to have learned the most important lessons from their previous military campaigns against Iran. Five realities must be understood before launching another war: 1. Iran will not surrender. Even a far more intense and destructive military campaign, including strikes against critical energy infrastructure, is unlikely to force Tehran into capitulation. The Iranian leadership will not simply abandon its nuclear ambitions or ballistic missile program under military pressure. If anything, another war could further strengthen its determination to preserve these capabilities. 2. Washington and Jerusalem cannot dictate the duration of the war. Anyone who believes another military campaign can be limited to a few days is making a dangerous assumption. Iran's response is likely to be extensive and violent, potentially forcing the United States and Israel to launch additional strikes. Once this cycle begins, controlling the pace, scope, and duration of the conflict will become extraordinarily difficult. 3. There is no military silver bullet. Striking Iranian infrastructure, including energy facilities, will not magically resolve the Iranian challenge. On the contrary, such attacks could trigger massive Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure across the Middle East, with devastating regional and global consequences. 4. Iran will have surprises of its own. American and Israeli planners should not assume that Tehran will respond only with missiles and drones. Iran could attempt to disrupt undersea communications cables, conduct unconventional operations, or even launch limited ground operations against vulnerable targets in Kuwait or Bahrain. These are potential scenarios, not certainties, but they cannot be dismissed. Moreover, another confrontation could rapidly become a regional war, with Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis likely to join the fighting in one form or another. The assumption that a war against Iran can remain geographically contained is deeply questionable. 5. The global economic consequences could be severe. Another major conflict would almost certainly put substantial upward pressure on global energy prices, particularly if Iranian energy facilities were targeted and Tehran retaliated against Gulf energy infrastructure. The consequences would extend far beyond the Middle East, affecting global markets, inflation, and economic stability. The bottom line is simple: Without a return to a diplomatic agreement, another military escalation in the Gulf increasingly appears difficult to avoid. But that does not mean another war would achieve its strategic objectives. Even a highly destructive campaign targeting Iran's most critical infrastructure may fail to produce meaningful strategic gains. Instead, the United States and Israel could find themselves trapped in another prolonged war of attrition, with no decisive outcome, mounting economic costs, and an increasingly unstable Middle East. The fundamental lesson of the previous campaigns should be clear: Military superiority does not automatically translate into strategic success. Before launching another war, Washington and Jerusalem must answer a basic question: What exactly can another military campaign achieve that the previous ones failed to accomplish, and what is the exit strategy if Iran refuses to back down? There is no kinetic solution to the Iranian challenge. Ignoring that reality risks repeating the same strategic mistakes, only at a much higher cost. #Iran #iran