Bitcoin and miner economics. Building an AI agent that swing trades the S&P 500. Results posted.
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Joined January 2023
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Q4 mining costs to support Bills claim. Last halving bear bottom was -25% AISC for $RIOT. I, the ever optimist, hoped we would hold 70-75k as that fit the narrative. Now that these levels have been broken, you must assume worst case, which would be right in @billfour range of 55-60k. If we get -25% below AISC of the cheapest miners we’re at 40k. I wouldn’t rule out anything in $BTC but I like bills range, especially after today.
$MARA $IBIT $IREN $ABTC $MSTR $HODL $COIN $WULF $BITF $HUT $CLSK
Is it his head or his ass? Jason has no clue.
AI is the ultimate catalyst for Bitcoin.
Why?
Energy and processing power.
Bitcoin requires both, so it now lives on the grid.
Its price will always be linked to the two, and every four years the energy and compute needed to mint a new coin doubles.
Bitcoin is asymptotically the hardest, most ideal money in the age of AI, and thanks to Satoshi it has no real competition.
Jason is another crypto bro shilling his bags and should, as always, be ignored.
A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.
Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.
Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.
We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.
Why?
Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value.
Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?
What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?!
The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED!
Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets!
No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone.
No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS!
Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity.
This should be obvious to everyone right now.
Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.
Benjamin Pincock retweeted
GOLDMAN:
“.. we are starting to see clearer signs that the AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector. .. the share of US firms that have adopted AI in regular business functions now shows a statistically significant negative correlation with employment growth ..”
Benjamin Pincock retweeted
Wake up.
Every profession deemed white-collar, the middle class dream, is about to be decimated by AI, at a much faster pace than anticipated, with monstrous social consequences.
Benjamin Pincock retweeted
MAJOR U.S. BANKS DETECT UNAUTHORIZED AI AGENTS ACCESSING CUSTOMER ACCOUNTS — AXIOS
Major banks, including $JPM, $BAC, $MS and $WFC, are confronting security risks from third-party AI agents accessing customer accounts, according to Axios.
Some agents have reportedly attempted actions beyond user instructions, raising concerns about unauthorized transactions and fund transfers.
Morgan Stanley has begun blocking third-party agents, while JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citi are restricting access.
Banks warn they cannot reliably distinguish legitimate user activity from autonomous AI agents, even when customers have voluntarily shared their credentials.
Fixed three bugs with our agentic trader this morning.
1. One position sat without a stop overnight. This was due to an order that got partially filled. Now a check every minute to confirm when a buy has completed so stops can be added.
2. Unfilled buys got dropped, now they retry.
3. GitHub scheduler ran late. Added an earlier start and a second check.
Some major bugs if you ask me so we will be keeping a close eye on the fixes.
Benjamin Pincock retweeted
This is the way. Stock donations to kids w inv accts helps to kill many societal problems w one clean stone. We know some will perform olympic-level mental gymnastics to try and spin this as bad but as someone who has looked into it, this is really powerful stuff. 👏
Excellent news - the engine and model fired up on Alpaca last night for the first time and successfully traded the entire day with no operator involvement. Objective achieved. Still trying to figure out how and what I want to share in terms of data. Might just end up giving most of it away.. in the name of science ofc. If we can make it an entire week with no firing issues I will start trade logs again and see if I can figure out a way to automate posts for some of our signals as they are happening live.
Some things are changing for the project we started running last week. We are moving from Robinhood to Alpaca for better automations in our trading. We want a fully automated agentic trader and Robinhood could not give that to us. As we are still in testing, I am going to pull back the posts and data entries to just once a week, every Friday so as to not spam my followers. If you are a builder and want more information on what I am doing send me a PM and let’s talk.
The model and engine in their current form are not ready to be deployed independently by an agent. There has been far too much operator involvement and that is not what we had in mind. We are taking this back to the drawing board and working out our automations. Stay tuned.
Benjamin Pincock retweeted
BREAKING: South Korea's stock market extends losses to over -8% on the day, triggering a level 1 circuit breaker.
Trading has been halted for 20 minutes amid the intense selling pressure.
A level 2 circuit breaker would occur next at a -15% drop.
Benjamin Pincock retweeted
Cavemen Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
Our back-test assumed one of our morning trades happens right at the 9:30 open. Our AI agent actually places it a bit later, on a schedule.
That's a hidden gap between model and reality, so we checked whether it matters. 🧵
The catch: the biggest gap between any two times is ~2 bp. A normal day swings ~80 bp.
For our own trade, the model-vs-agent timing gap was under 1 bp a day. The model stands; timing alone isn't an edge.