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I still don’t rule out the ability of on-chain metrics to identify Bitcoin price bottoms. And here is a simple explanation. On-chain metrics reflect investor behavior, and investor behavior is deeply connected to market cycles, periods of euphoria, and periods of fear. There is something interesting I’ve been watching closely. I want to make it clear that this is not financial advice. It is simply my opinion after analyzing a large amount of data. I’ll use the MVRV Z-Score to explain it better. 2017 to 2018 cycle 1. In 2017, this metric created three major peaks before Bitcoin reached its all-time high. 2. After the ATH, Bitcoin declined and the metric formed a base between roughly 0.25 and 1.16. 3. At the time, many people were not expecting another major decline. Then, in November 2018, Bitcoin dropped sharply toward $3,180. Latest bull cycle 1. Between 2024 and 2025, the MVRV Z-Score also created three peaks, although they were less euphoric given how much more complex the market has become. 2. After the ATH, Bitcoin declined and the metric formed a base around the same region seen in 2018. 3. Recently, the metric moved higher and Bitcoin followed. However, unlike 2018, the MVRV Z-Score has still not visited the negative region that historically marked major Bitcoin price bottoms. I’ve been fascinated by on-chain metrics for years, which is why we built an arsenal of them at Alphractal. But the mental exercise I keep doing is this: What are the chances that this metric still needs to move lower, and Bitcoin’s price follows it? I’m going to make a dedicated video showing why, from a purely on-chain perspective, the price bottom may not have happened yet. For the conditions I’m looking at to be satisfied, Bitcoin would likely need to fall toward at least $53,000 or lower. I’m questioning the data, not the current bullish narratives. That is exactly why I brought up 2018. At that point, almost nobody expected another major leg down either. The truth is, I don’t want the market to fall further. When that happens, retail investors disappear and the environment becomes worse for everyone. But every day I look at these metrics and they seem to be saying: the bottom may still not be in. And I keep asking myself whether this cycle will ultimately behave the way previous cycles did. It’s complex, without a doubt. Sometimes, however, the best decision is simply to observe, analyze carefully, and catch the train along the way with greater confidence. Because our beloved Bitcoin has always been full of traps 😀

Bitcoin is showing one of the clearest signs of long-term investor conviction. Long-Term Holder Supply is now 5.2 times larger than Short-Term Holder Supply. At the same time, Short-Term Holder Supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2016. Current share of Bitcoin’s total supply: Long-Term Holders: 84% Short-Term Holders: 16% This means that most of the circulating supply is currently held by investors with a longer time horizon, while the amount controlled by short-term participants has become historically limited. This is not just a supply statistic. It is a measure of conviction. The more Bitcoin moves into the hands of long-term holders, the less supply tends to be immediately available for sale. If demand strengthens while this structure remains intact, the market may become increasingly sensitive to new capital inflows. Price captures attention. Supply behavior reveals conviction. Data: @Alphractal