MicroSectors

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No more Cybertruck? Tesla plans to wind down Cybertruck production by mid-2027 to make room for the Cybercab. Its delivery numbers show how far sales had fallen. Tesla doesn't report the Cybertruck on its own. It's counted with the Model S and X as "Other Models." That group peaked at 23,640 deliveries in Q4 2024, a year after the Cybertruck arrived. Last quarter it was 8,295, down 65% and the lowest since 2021. That's about half of what the Model S and X delivered on their own in 2022. $TSLA

Taiwan's stock market is mostly AI supply chain. Seven AI stocks make up 42% of the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF $EWT, and TSMC $TSM alone is 22%. So when chip stocks had their second-worst day since 1994 on Thursday, Taiwan had its worst. TSM's US shares fell 10.8%, and EWT fell 11.5%, its biggest drop since it started trading in 2000.

At 9:35 a.m., 8 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were up. By 11:40 a.m., none were. Staples and energy held out the longest. Tech, industrials and consumer discretionary never saw green. All 11 closed down. The S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and chip stocks fell 12.2%, their second-worst day since 1994.

Chips down 10.7%. That's the 4th-worst day since 1994; only March 16, 2020, April 14, 2000 and March 12, 2020 were worse.

Chip stocks are down 7.4% this morning. If today holds, it will be the 11th day this year the PHLX Semiconductor Index has fallen 5% or more. That is already more than all of 2020 (10) and 2022 (8). Since 1994, only four years had more: 2000 (31), 2001 (29), 2002 (25) and 2008 (12). Three of this year's 11 have come in the last 11 sessions: Oct. 22, Oct. 30 and today. The index is 35.0% below its June 22 record close.

$AMD reported last night. Follow a dollar of Big Tech's AI spending, and every company in this one index shows up.

WTI has held the same rising trendline for 121 days. Three times it fell to the line, and three times a Hormuz threat sent it higher. July 6: $68.55. Two days later, Trump threatened a Hormuz blockade. WTI rose 34.5% by July 23. August 5: $75.22. Two days later, Hormuz tanker traffic stalled. WTI rose 21.0% by September 2. October 7: $88.28. The next day, Iran stepped up tanker attacks. WTI rose 17.9% by October 30. Overnight, Iran's IRGC said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz. WTI is down 3% and back on the line. One difference this time: it's the day after the midterms.

Options priced in a 12.5% move for Palantir $PLTR after last night's report. It was down as much as 9.2% before this morning's open, and it's now down 2.0%, after adjusted EPS of $0.44 vs. $0.41 expected. Here's how to find the implied move for any stock before it reports: 1. Find the first options expiration after the report. For PLTR, Friday, Nov. 6. 2. Pick the strike closest to the share price: $182.50, with PLTR at $181.44. 3. Add the call and put prices at that strike. Together they're called a straddle, about $22.70 here. 4. Divide by the share price: $22.70 ÷ $181.44 = 12.5%. That's the move, in either direction, that options were pricing in. This is the simple version; some traders scale the straddle down slightly. The rest of last night's and this morning's reports, with the implied move in brackets: Apple ($AAPL ) -1.7% (4.4%), EPS $2.10 vs. $1.99 expected. Williams ($WMB ) +3.3% (5.1%), adjusted EPS $0.54, in line. Diamondback Energy ($FANG) -2.2% and Marathon Petroleum ($MPC) -0.1% list only monthly options; adjusted EPS $5.86 vs. $5.60 and $26.93 vs. $26.00.

We were one word away. Alex Karp hit 13 of our 24 Palantir bingo squares on last night's call. Two different lines were one square short: "Commodity" or "Parasitic" would have done it. "Commodity" did come up on the call. CTO Shyam Sankar said it, not Karp.

There is no CEO on an earnings call quite like $PLTR 's Alex Karp. We went through the transcripts of his last eight calls. He said "America" 77 times, on every one. "Obviously" came up on seven of the eight. He has brought up steak dinners on each of the last four. Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close today. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $0.41 on $2.18 billion of revenue, up from $0.21 and $1.18 billion a year ago. Options imply a move of about 12%. Here's your bingo card for tonight's call.

In October, investors sold the most exciting stocks in the market and bought the most boring ones. Chip stocks fell 15.7%. Consumer staples ($XLP), the companies behind groceries, toothpaste and soda, rose 11.2%. That is the best month for $XLP since it launched in 1998. Staples are where investors go when they get defensive, because people keep buying groceries and toothpaste in any economy. A move this size means a lot of investors got defensive at the same time. The 27-point gap between staples and chips is the fourth widest of any month since 1998. The three wider ones were September 2000, November 2000 and September 2001.

Intel ($INTC) has topped the average EPS estimate in five straight reports. This morning it's down 25.7% in premarket trading, almost three times the 8.9% move options priced in and bigger than any of its last four report moves. Adjusted EPS was $0.52 vs. $0.40 expected. Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion, below the $16.5 billion it reported for the third quarter, and adjusted EPS to $0.25. Its CFO said Intel sees the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half of next year. Sandisk ($SNDK) is down 9.1% against a 7.7% implied move. Adjusted EPS was $49.51 vs. $46.41 expected, and revenue $11.03 billion vs. $10.70 billion. It announced an 8-for-1 stock split. Yesterday we noted that Amazon's implied move was worth more than all of Sandisk. Amazon ($AMZN) is down 7.4%, inside its 8.1% implied move, and that is about $196 billion of market value, slightly more than Sandisk's entire value at Thursday's close. EPS was $1.89 vs. $1.96 expected. AWS revenue grew 39% to $46.0 billion, its fastest growth in nearly five years. Exxon Mobil ($XOM) is up 1.7%, less than its 2.6% implied move but more than any of its last four report moves. Adjusted EPS: $4.23 vs. $4.03 expected. It announced $20 billion of share repurchases for 2027. Chevron ($CVX) is up 1.5% against a 2.6% implied move. Adjusted EPS: $5.28 vs. $4.83 expected. Its U.S. refineries ran record crude throughput. SkyWest ($SKYW), which lists only monthly options, reported EPS of $3.08 vs. $3.07 expected and revenue of $1.12 billion vs. $1.14 billion. It bought back $75 million of stock in the quarter. Across the week, we logged the implied move before 15 reports: nine stocks moved less, six moved more. Intel's gap is the widest so far.

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Options imply a move of about 8.1% for Amazon $AMZN after its report tonight. That's roughly $215 billion of market value, more than all of Sandisk $SNDK, which also reports tonight and is worth about $197 billion. Amazon rose 15.3% after its last report in July. Add Intel, Sandisk, Exxon and Chevron, all reporting in the next 24 hours, and the implied moves come to about $300 billion. Intel $INTC reports tonight, with an 8.9% implied move. Its last four report moves alternated direction: +0.3%, -17.0%, +23.6% and -7.9%. Intel's adjusted EPS came in above the average estimate in all four of those reports. Exxon Mobil's $XOM record runs the other way. The stock moved about 1% or less after each of its last four reports, and options imply about 2.6% for its report Friday before the open. Analysts expect EPS excluding identified items of $4.03, vs. $1.88 a year ago. Street estimates: Amazon third-quarter EPS of $1.96 on $202.3 billion of revenue, vs. $1.95 and $180.2 billion a year ago. Intel, adjusted EPS of $0.40 on $16.5 billion, vs. $0.23 and $13.7 billion. Also after the close today: Sandisk, with options implying about 7.7%. Analysts expect fiscal first-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, vs. $2.3 billion a year ago, and adjusted EPS of $46.41 vs. $1.22. SkyWest $SKYW moved 4.9% or more after each of its last four reports, and analysts expect EPS of $3.07 vs. $2.81 a year ago. Before the open Friday: Chevron $CVX, with a 2.6% implied move, rose after three of its last four reports. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $4.83 vs. $1.85 a year ago.

Options priced in a 5.9% move for Alphabet and a 10.4% move for ServiceNow. In premarket trading, both fell nearly twice that. Alphabet ($GOOGL) fell 11.7%, more than any of its last four report moves. EPS was $2.12, including a $0.55-a-share loss on equity securities. Excluding it, $2.67 vs. $3.01 expected. Alphabet's revenue rose 25% to $127.6 billion, and Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.7 billion. Reports on the drop cited the EPS miss and cash flow. Alphabet spent $51.4 billion on property and equipment in the quarter, and free cash flow was negative $9.1 billion, its second straight negative quarter. ServiceNow ($NOW) fell 19.1%, after falling following each of its last three reports. Adjusted EPS: $1.00 reported vs. $1.02 expected. It raised its 2026 AI annual contract value target to $1.7 billion. Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) rose 11.8% against a 7.9% implied move. The stock fell more than its implied move after each of its last four reports. Adjusted EPS: $1.12 reported vs. $0.94 expected, and it raised its 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to about $1.70. Cheniere ($LNG) rose 4.8% against a 4.0% implied move. Revenue was $6.17 billion vs. $5.37 billion expected. It raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion, from $7.90 billion to $8.40 billion. Microsoft ($MSFT) rose 2.9%, less than its 5.1% implied move. Adjusted EPS: $4.89 reported vs. $4.72 expected. Azure revenue grew 48%, and commercial remaining performance obligation rose 73% to $677 billion. Names with only monthly options: Hyatt ($H) reported adjusted EPS of $1.27 vs. $0.77 expected and a loss of $0.30 a year ago. TechnipFMC ($FTI) reported EPS of $1.05 vs. $0.88 expected and raised its 2026 Subsea revenue guidance to $9.6 billion to $9.8 billion. Churchill Downs ($CHDN) reported adjusted EPS of $1.23 vs. $1.10 expected, and its board approved a new $750 million buyback authorization. DT Midstream ($DTM) reported EPS of $1.16 vs. $1.13 expected and raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.185 billion to $1.225 billion. MGM Resorts ($MGM) reported an adjusted loss of $0.11 a share vs. $0.08 of EPS expected. MGM China posted record quarterly revenue. St. Joe ($JOE) earned $0.65 a share, vs. $0.67 a year ago, and raised its quarterly dividend 13% to $0.18. Our tally this week: we logged the options-implied move before 10 reports. Six stocks moved less than that, and four moved more, all of them from last night and this morning.

Inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target every month since March 2021. The Fed's own economists project it gets back to 2% in 2029. That's in the minutes of the September meeting, where the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. The reasons they gave for the wait: tariffs, oil and the AI buildout. The Fed decides at 2:00pm ET today.

This week we logged the options-implied move before five earnings reports. All five stocks have moved less than that so far. Next up after today's close: $MSFT and $GOOGL , with implied moves of 5.1% and 5.9%, about $200 billion and $234 billion of market value. Their own history is mixed. Microsoft's last four report moves averaged 8.1%, including a 15.5% gain in July. Alphabet's averaged 5.0%, and it fell 7.1% in July. Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH has the opposite record. Options imply about 7.9% for its report Thursday before the open. The stock fell more than that after each of its last four reports: 15.3%, 10.5%, 8.6% and 9.8%. Street estimates: Microsoft fiscal first-quarter adjusted EPS of $4.72 on $90.7 billion of revenue, vs. $4.13 and $77.7 billion a year ago. Alphabet, $3.01 on $127.9 billion, vs. $2.87 and $102.3 billion. Also after the close today: ServiceNow ($NOW), with options implying about 10.4%, fell after each of its last three reports: 9.9% in January, 17.8% in April and 3.7% in July. Churchill Downs ($CHDN) has alternated direction after its last four: +7.8%, -6.0%, +10.1%, -6.6%. MGM Resorts ($MGM) moved less than 3.5% after each of its last four, and analysts expect adjusted EPS of $0.08 vs. $0.24 a year ago. St. Joe ($JOE) also reports. Before the open Thursday: Cheniere ($LNG) moved more than its 4.0% implied move after three of its last four reports. Hyatt ($H): analysts expect adjusted EPS of $0.77 vs. a loss of $0.30 a year ago. TechnipFMC ($FTI): EPS of $0.88 on $2.79 billion of revenue expected, vs. $0.75 and $2.65 billion. DT Midstream ($DTM): EPS of $1.13 expected, the same as a year ago.